Yes, I'm very certain that it wont fall behind launches aligned. They look to have a steady stream of games coming in 2019 that will maintain and grow its lead over the 3DS to an amount that the 3DS wont be able to come back from. No doubt about it.

Wii U faced its demise because of two things:

1) Nintendos own mistakes. Very little marketing (and the marketing that was there was very poor). A lot of my friend circle were left thinking that this is some tablet add on to the original wii. The system launched without a good killer app (2d mario clearly didnt cut it), and had a huge software drought in 2013 especially. There wouldnt be a must-own game until Mario 3D World, which came out a few years. The whole gamepad gimmick sucked as well.

2) Mobile gaming taking over the casual market that Nintendo was going for. Why buy a seperate device when the device you already have has 100's of games beforehand?

Lets say if Nintendo actually spent some marketing dollars, called it Wii 2, took more care of the software situation with a steady stream of titles, etc, some third party support wouldve arrived as a byproduct, and the Wii 2 would've sold 50 million units (still only half the wii due to Mobile gaming)

No it wouldn't.

N64 and GC didn't had droughts, they had competent HW and also were marketed and priced right.

It is purely speculation and wishful thinking. In real world if you look Nintendo had only been dropping on console world NES>SNES>N64>GC>WiiU ... Wii sales were mostly from non-gaming public. If Nintendo was able to sell 80M HH plus 50M consoles per gen why would they make the hybrid and cut themselves to a single market that will do around 80-100M?

The XBO didnt drop, its selling consistently. Its just that X360 sales shot up that year.

The cause of that "drop" was the launch of the kinect, which was a huge hit back in day and really boosted x360's sales and lifespan.

You understand that it is a bit different when you launch a new console after 20m+ console last gen and when you launch a new console after a major success with 85m+ sales. When 360 launched Xbox wasn't even established as a gaming brand. It was coming after a pretty niche console. I believe in some countries people didn't even know what Xbox is. Xbox One was launched after a major success in 360 which had a lot of loyal customers and fans. Those who preferred to choose XB1 even despite all the backlash. That's why it started off pretty good. Initial sales of each consoles are always driven by certain brand fans. If you look at first months sales you will see that the gap between XB1 and PS4 wasn't that big.

What about the Vita??

Eeeeeerrr guess you jumped on the gun.

The lead didn't disappear suddenly on the year 5. It have been losing lead basically since launch. A show that X1 launched good but lost wind after every year. Another evidence? PS4 increased the percentage lead every year. Another evidence is that X1 didn't really had YOY growth for consecutive years as is expected on the first half of the gen.

All in all, it just shows that reveal/release for X1 for all the troubles they had wasn't the problem.

Sure I understand. But please tell me what kind of turn around in sales make you go from outselling aligned to trailing behind.

Shouldn't be tracked anymore =p

The answer is quite simple.  They wouldn't.  Nintendo knows they couldn't compete directly with Sony on the home console market without a gimmick/hook.  The Wii succeeded in hooking in the more casual market with its motion controls, which helped it thrive for 3 years or so.  However, the novelty started to wear off, and a console many thought was destined to rival the PS2 ended up having to crawl its way across the 100M mark.  The PS3, Sony's worst selling home console, only sold ~15M less than it.

The Wii U was an attempt to recapture the exact magic of the Wii.  HW that was only slightly more powerful than the previous gen, a gimmick controller (this time trying to appeal to the growing number of phone/tablet gamers), and a price point lower than the competition.  Unfortunately for Nintendo, those casuals were just fine continuing to play on their mobile devices.  And the system was as pointless to the more core audience, as they were ready for an actual tech jump from their PS3s and 360s.  Nothing was going to change the outcome the Wii U saw.

So, Nintendo, realizing it couldn't compete head to head in the home console space decided to combine the market with one they were much stronger in, the handheld market.  Combining the two, they were able to appeal to the handheld gamer, while also having some presence in the home.  It's an approach that really suits them, while also seemingly allowing the PS4 and Switch to really have no effect on one another.  I think its the model they will continue to adopt, while Sony continues as a sole home console that strives to have a good price to performance balance.

Sorry what? You are twistin what I have said. 

And while i am agreeing with you you are still ignoring wht I am saying and in particular what makes what I am saying different from what you are saying.

I said that for the switch t hit 80M and like any other platform that has sold that much it would need a great number of games released for it. I never said it won't have those games but instead suggested that as it stands i dont see nintendo first party alone being able to carry that mantle.

How is my then saying that it needs a lot of games and games being wht sells hardware moving the posts?

And while it seems like I am agreeing with you, the difference is my emphasis on a continuous stream of such games. And i have repeatedly explained that point so I am not going to do it again.

To conclude.... those usual great games you are talking about has NEVER taken a nintendo home console to 80M. Outside the wii.... and I talked on this too. There is a reason for why its never happened but there i no point here cause you obviously arent listenning to what I am saying. Case in point...... nothing i am saying now have I not already said.

What do you mean, "it lost wind". Its sold about the same for each of the last five years. 

I didnt jump any gun. You said XBO dropped when compared to 360, but what actually happened that the 360 shot up and XBO remained flat, which is true.

It lost because of that horrible reveal that still leaves a bad place in peoples mouth to this day, the primary reason why the XBO isnt doing as well as its competitors:

- focus on TV TV TV  and other media instead of games

-horrible DRM plans, trying to make it always online, trying to eliminate used games

-Kinect forced into every XBO, so they were basically selling a weaker system for a larger price

Theres not much else to it. Next gen will be a fresh new start for Xbox, where it can finally escape the "xbox one" name.

Exactly. And a combination that made their HH more valuable by having console level game on the go, something cellphones still can't do. So if they released a HH only I would say they would get like 60-65M this time around and console only 15M. So it's quite possible that Switch by synergies of the fusion can do better than if Nintendo had 2 different devices (of course not talking about they making a full line of HH, Hybrid, console that play the same game... that is where they can really do big numbers with double dippers helping).