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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

DonFerrari said:

flashfire926 said:

The traditional sales curve will not be a thing anymore in console lifecycles, now that mid-gen refreshes are a thing, which keeps console sales going for an extended period of time. 

X1 sold a lot out the gate because xbox had a big established fan-base by then, something you couldnt say about the 360 launch. 

What does the bolded even mean? As I said, Xbox One sold roughly the same, each year from 2014-2018. Its just that in 360's 5th year, that aligns with XBO's 2018, the kinect launched which boosted X360 a lot for 2010-2012. Its doing rougly the same right as it was doing in 2014. Its held back the same amount as it was in 2014, not less, not more.

You're repeating the same disproved points over and over again now.

PS4 had mid cycle, increased sales after year 1, PS3 and X360 as well (and they had the move and kinect mid gen if you wish). So we are to believe all consoles will now sell flat with no increase from year 1 to 2 and 3 because of mid cycle that may or may not happen? What type of excuse is that?

You are a hard person. Selling the same thing from year 1 to 5 isn't really a good thing. Also please explain how you turn around sales by staying flat? And if the reveal was so damaging the effects wouldn't show 3 years later.

Putting words in my mouth yet again. Did I say its possible to turn around sales by staying flat?  Did I say the Xbox One is doing very well?  The only thing I said was that Kinect boosted X360 a lot, which will help it pull away from the Xbox One launches aligned (in the US)

Stop putting words in my mouth.

edit: What I'm saying is, Xbox has the same amount of wind in the sail as it did in 2014, whether you think that a very little amount or a very high amount.

Last edited by flashfire926 - on 15 December 2018

Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Intrinsic said:
flashfire926 said:

Well, since we've reached an impasse (I think handheld franchises being added will boost Switch numbers, you think otherwise), there's only one way to settle this.

Lets make a bet. If the Switch surpasses the 3DS's lifetime numbers, It's my victory, and if it doesn't than its yours. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar, and the loser has to state their defeat in their signature for the same timeframe.

I"ll take that bet. 

And dont worry about the sigs. Ill make avatars that states what was lost lol.

Well, it's on. I wish you good luck, cause you're going to need a lot of it :P



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

Intrinsic said:
MasonADC said:

So what caused the 3ds to get as far as it got now that the Switch doesn't have? If the Switch won't outsell the 3ds, but is tracking a good deal ahead of it in shipments, something must be up. 

The 3DS was a handheld. And sold like a handheld But only for a while because the typical handheld audience shifted to mobile. Thats what the NS doesn't have. That super casual mobile crowd. It also doesn't have that multiple handhelds per household thing either. A parent today will sooner buy 3 $50 android tablets for her 3 kids than buy 3 NS.... even if it cost $199. Thats just the world we live in today. Unless something changes.

And I have talked about comparing nintendo platforms already. Its difficult because they mostly all bring different things to the table. Like this is not a handheld its a hybrid. So it will sell like a hybrid. Tracking better than the 3DS doesnt mean anything if it starts to stall by the time it gets to 60M sales 

I think Nintendo can get the switch down to a multiple per house system, just not any time soon. I also don't think that the handheld market is as dead as you are implying. However, we just have to wait and see. Good luck on your bet 



flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

PS4 had mid cycle, increased sales after year 1, PS3 and X360 as well (and they had the move and kinect mid gen if you wish). So we are to believe all consoles will now sell flat with no increase from year 1 to 2 and 3 because of mid cycle that may or may not happen? What type of excuse is that?

You are a hard person. Selling the same thing from year 1 to 5 isn't really a good thing. Also please explain how you turn around sales by staying flat? And if the reveal was so damaging the effects wouldn't show 3 years later.

Putting words in my mouth yet again. Did I say its possible to turn around sales by staying flat?  Did I say the Xbox One is doing very well?  The only thing I said was that Kinect boosted X360 a lot, which will help it pull away from the Xbox One launches aligned (in the US)

Stop putting words in my mouth.

edit: What I'm saying is, Xbox has the same amount of wind in the sail as it did in 2014, whether you think that a very little amount or a very high amount.

So basically you entered the conversation to make a strawman? Because the whole point was about X1 starting strong and not increasing sales, while at the same time losing ground against X360 (and it happened year after year, not only after Kinect) and PS4 increasing the difference in percentage so there really wasn't no turn around in sales.

Also you have said yourself that sales curves are a thing of the past with the invention of mid gen refreshs (have people traveled from the future to warn Xbox customers, and they only, that there would be a refresh years after) increasing of sales on first half of the gen is basically not going to occur. You are just getting lost on trying to make a very cumbersome argument.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

I am dumbfounded.



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Y'all expecting the Switch to barely best the 3DS and ending up at like 80 millions are in for a surprise.
The consumers weren't interested in the 3DS to begin with and it got a significant price cut in it's first year to start selling, but the Switch being already more expensive and without any cuts and barely any deals (best one was the MK8 bundle and it's BF only..) it's outpacing the 3DS.

Sure 2018 was kinda dry in system sellers, but i really think 2019 will be on another level. Nintendo didn't change their target for the FY and it would be really terrible to not reduce it if things were looking like so. It's way better to reduce your goal than meet the expectations then not reaching it by aiming too high.
Let's say it's at 30 million by the end of 2018. It would need 50 million in 4 years minimum to reach that 80 million. 2018 is clearly not it's peak, no revision yet, no system seller during the whole year. 2019 is looking so much bigger and better than this year and i think it really has a shot at selling through 20 + millions, sure thing if the new switch hardware rumours are true.

Don't see it having a Wii like peak but will easily have better legs. Once it gets cheaper, it will be a multiple console by household type of thing. 80 million would be the absolute worst case scenario.



p0isonparadise said:
Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

I am dumbfounded.

According to his logic Smash Ultimate would never be able to move Nintendo Switch because every Smash Ultimate buyers have already owned the switch.  In Japan Smash managed to move 280K hardware in a week to be the biggest week ever for big Nintendo game release week. 

Not only is Super Smash Bros Ultimate tracking well ahead of Pokemon Let's Go! in the US, it's also having a stronger impact on selling hardware.

Switch sales tracking very strong in early December

Damn, Benji is lying once again. 



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
p0isonparadise said:

I am dumbfounded.

According to his logic Smash Ultimate would never be able to move Nintendo Switch because every Smash Ultimate buyers have already owned the switch.  In Japan Smash managed to move 280K hardware in a week to be the biggest week ever for big Nintendo game release week. 

Not only is Super Smash Bros Ultimate tracking well ahead of Pokemon Let's Go! in the US, it's also having a stronger impact on selling hardware.

Switch sales tracking very strong in early December

Damn, Benji is lying once again. 

Then you lack simple readin comprehension because that is not what I am saying. 

And you need to t drop this Benji nonsense. If you wanna share his comments go right ahead. But leave the side remarks out f it and stop twisting what he says. Thts just bait.  



Intrinsic said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

According to his logic Smash Ultimate would never be able to move Nintendo Switch because every Smash Ultimate buyers have already owned the switch.  In Japan Smash managed to move 280K hardware in a week to be the biggest week ever for big Nintendo game release week. 

Not only is Super Smash Bros Ultimate tracking well ahead of Pokemon Let's Go! in the US, it's also having a stronger impact on selling hardware.

Switch sales tracking very strong in early December

Damn, Benji is lying once again. 

Then you lack simple readin comprehension because that is not what I am saying

And you need to t drop this Benji nonsense. If you wanna share his comments go right ahead. But leave the side remarks out f it and stop twisting what he says. Thts just bait.  

That's exactly what you were saying and you left the most important part of what makes the Switch is a more desirable product than the 3DS. 

Hint: The hardware itself. 

Nintendo 3DS received a massive price cut in the early life of the system and the glasses-free 3D gimmick was never had taken off like what they were expecting. They scrapped the 3D part in the next models. 

The switch is currently selling at the full price nearly 2 years on the market and software sales of switches are above 3ds software sales numbers by a huge margin. 

Try to comprehend the entire scope of 2 consoles first dude. 



colafitte said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
According to Benji, Switch is currently leading by a huge margin in December and PS4 is doing poorly.

He never said PS4 is doing poorly....please, if you're going to quote someone else, do it correctly. He said Switch is leading by a huge margin, nothing else. PS4 and XBO could still sell 1M which should be considered "fine" and Switch still lead by "a huge margin" if it sell 2M, for example.

Don't take the bait.