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colafitte on 15 December 2018
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Miyamotoo said:

 

colafitte said:

I do believe Switch will end around 80-85M in its lifetime too, 10M+ more than 3DS is something on par at the perfomance of Switch compared to 3DS. To be precise, by my own calculations i expect Switch to be around 75M by the end of 2022, which i consider a success because Switch is not able to run most 3rd Party AAA and because this time will have a huge online service payment that will compensate by far any less sales compared to previous gens.

How time is passing Switch is continue selling much better than 3DS in same time period, Switch will be at 35m+ at end of March, 3DS was at 31m in same time period and in that time already had huge price cut and one revision, while Switch still has full price point and dont have any revision. Also 3DS in its full 3rd year on market (in Switch case we talking about FY 2019) had year of 12.2m units, Switch in same year will probably have 20m+ year. Also your calculation is bad, at end of FY 2019. Switch will probably be at around 57-60m. Talking about 3rd party games, Switch even now dont have most AAA 3rd party games.

As time pases is becoming more and more obvious that Switch won't be at 35M+ by end of March. It's going to end 2018 around 29-30M, and it' won't sell more than 5M in the first three months of 2019....no way. in my opinion is going to be around 33M sold, and 35M shipped by end of March, like I said to you before. Switch is doing fine this holiday season and is still not enough to reach that bonkers goal of 20M FY shipments.

My prevision worked this way:

end of 2017 13M, end of 2018 29M, end of 2019 46M, end of 2020 59M, end of 2021 69M, end of 2022 77M. After it probably will have another year selling around the same and by 2024 Nintendo will probably be launching the successor. So by then, and after 7 years on the market the Switch will be around 85M. And believe me, this is my most optimistic prediction, and i'm chosing to believe this than my most pessimistic one.