Intrinsic said:
And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone. |
First, 3rd party games are not one of main reasons why even now Switch is selling so good. Second, even when PS5/XB2 arrive on market Switch will be healthy platform with strong install base, so will continue receiving A-AA, last gen ports/remasters, 3rd party exclusives and Indies despite PS5/XB2 arived on market.
Talking about sales, Switch after only two first years will be at 35m+ units, and that's without any price cut and revision, also have on mind that Nintendo said they want Switch to be active then usual 5-6 years on market, with all that on mind, 80m is bare minimum that Switch will do.
PS5/XB2 will have effect small effect on Switch in way they are new consoles on market, but Switch will continue selling very well despite PS5/XB2, same like currently Switch is selling great despite PS4 and XB1 are also selling very well, simple Switch is different enough (full handheld mode and strong Nintendo IPs) that can sell despite other consoles on market. Also have on mind that in time PS5/XB2 will arive on market with price point of $400-500, Switch will in that time have price point of at $200 or lower with few revisions on market. Talking about Nintendo support compared to past consoles, have on mind that Switch is Nintendo unifed platform, that means all Nintendo IPs (both home console and handheld), full undivided Nintendo support (that wasnt case never before) just for one platform, that including exclusive 3rd party deals just for one platform also.
colafitte said:
I do believe Switch will end around 80-85M in its lifetime too, 10M+ more than 3DS is something on par at the perfomance of Switch compared to 3DS. To be precise, by my own calculations i expect Switch to be around 75M by the end of 2022, which i consider a success because Switch is not able to run most 3rd Party AAA and because this time will have a huge online service payment that will compensate by far any less sales compared to previous gens. |
How time is passing Switch is continue selling much better than 3DS in same time period, Switch will be at 35m+ at end of March, 3DS was at 31m in same time period and in that time already had huge price cut and one revision, while Switch still has full price point and dont have any revision. Also 3DS in its full 3rd year on market (in Switch case we talking about FY 2019) had year of 12.2m units, Switch in same year will probably have 20m+ year. Also your calculation is bad, at end of FY 2019. Switch will probably be at around 57-60m. Talking about 3rd party games, Switch even now dont have most AAA 3rd party games.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 15 December 2018
