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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - PR: Nintendo Switch Best Selling week Ever (US) (8.2mil+Sold Switches LTD) [Update: 8.6mil+]

RolStoppable said:

The justification for the wrong number is that it is wrong. Your claim is that Nintendo PR cannot be wrong and that's why there can't be a margin of error when Nintendo PR is supposed to know the numbers. By the way, the margin of error for April 2017 is 36k which is 13%, because the March numbers were already definitive fact, so the margin of error is calculated solely based on April numbers. The precedent of Nintendo PR being wrong on basic numbers remains.

Hmm, one does not mutually exclude the other and you've clearly shown that you do not respect the spirit of my argument so nothing came through and I have to explain again ... 

Nintendo PR only applies to the total system figures so using it to extrapolate the numbers in comparison to the individual monthly NPD data will obviously be problematic but given the context of their "45% attach ratio" claim, their statement is indeed correct for the most part since it's descriptive about total hardware numbers rather being a monthly breakdown which gives Nintendo's claim a 3% error compared to the combined NPD data ... 

1.222M (PR) vs 1.186M (NPD) 

RolStoppable said:

It's the same case here. The 8.2m figure of Nintendo's PR is considered suspicious because the numbers don't add up. You and others have been repeatedly asked to lay out the maths for Switch sales in November, but no such attempt has been made by you guys. That leaves us with two options:

1. You guys comprehend maths and realize that the numbers don't add up, so you are content with trying to get a rise out of people.
2. You guys don't comprehend maths, so you don't even try in the first place.

Numbers don't lie and numbers don't care about either you or I or anyone else's bias ...  

"because the numbers don't add up", haha that statement you put out couldn't be anymore about the 'feels' or subjectivity than it already is ... 

I did try previously but the fact that Nintendo has made a couple of intractable statement means that there's a near infinite amount of solutions which could satisfy every statements conditions so why deal with information of low value when we have very specific information that's of high value ? I also find it ironic that you're potentially poking fun at my math ability when I have some postsecondary educational experience in that area while you on the other hand keep constantly tripping on a MK8D PR statement ... 

With the MK8D attach ratio statement being solved I don't think you have a precedent anymore to hold on ... 

RolStoppable said: 

Also, as has been pointed out, VGC isn't the only sales website where Nintendo's PR is called into question. It's the same on ResetEra. Do you believe in a widespread pro-Switch conspiracy?

I think you along with the others in here might need to come to terms with the possibility that Nintendo's methodology for collecting their internal data is just as good as NPD's or possibly even better and that the only so called "maths" to comprehend specific figures released by Nintendo ... 

Is ResetEra itself supposed to be some beacon of conviction to validate your claims ? 



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BTW Nintendo said they sold more than 8.2 million in the US and more than 250 million worth of product. So the exact numbers weren't known yet. I safely say 1 million Switches sold for November. Either way I don't see how Nintendo sells 20 million this fiscal year unless they have a jampacked Lineup for January, February and March.



$250 million was everything, but its over $250 million. Plus they said it broke Nintendo's record which was previously 800k held by Wii.



drinkandswim said:
$250 million was everything, but its over $250 million. Plus they said it broke Nintendo's record which was previously 800k held by Wii.

Nope. Different time periods were compared, so it's not over 800K.



? I don't know where you get that. They said it was Nintendo's best Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday for a Console. Previously that was Wii which was 800k.



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"It became the best-selling Nintendo console in U.S. history for that five-day period, surpassing even Wii system sales. Nintendo Switch also had its best-selling week ever in the United States."



RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Have we addressed the $250M in sales portion of the PR? $250,000,000/$300 per switch = 833,333 switch units and that's assuming zero software and other hardware sales. TAX no included.

pretty much confirms nintendo PR numbers being real, or i know nintendo made a mistake on those numbers as well.

By now it's evident that neither you or fatslob have the necessary skills to provide a coherent counter-argument. Since this bores me, I will assume your position and do the necessary maths based on the pieces of information that are in Nintendo's PR.

1. The revenue figure of $250m only covers November 22nd to 26th which you apparently didn't comprehend, because you follow it up with an unnecessary assumption when it is right there in the PR that the figure includes hardware of Switch, 3DS, SNES Classic and NES Classic, as well as first party games and first party accessories. Excluded are third party games and third party accessories.

2. What ties into the above figure are sales of 1m Switch first party games over the same period. Since Nintendo had discounts of around 33% on selected first party titles on the Switch eShop, I'll put the average selling price of first party games over that period at $50 for simplicity's sake. That's $50m in spending.

3. Now comes the part with the unaddressed quantities that necessitate guesstimates.

3DS hardware - 100k at an ASP of $120 = $12m
3DS first party software - 150k at an ASP of $30 = $4.5m
Switch accessories - $8m, that's a combination of more than 100k Joy-Con sets and Pro Controllers
NES Classic - 50k units at $60 = $3m
SNES Classic - 50k units at $80 = $4m

Estimated total: $31.5m. Let's round this down to $30m for simplicity's sake.

4. Now we can substract a total of $80m from the $250m figure because of the things outlined in point 2 and 3. $170m divided by $300 gives us 567k units of Switch hardware sold during November 22nd-26th.

5. The figure of 567k is above the known value of Wii sales on its best Black Friday (single day): 500k. Let's assume there wasn't much more stock available than these 500k for the remaining four days of Nintendo's comparison and we are good.

6. The figure of 567k leaves us with ~300k for the preciding two weeks and a half in the November tracking period. That's just about enough to make it realistic to account for the hardware boost that happened because of Pokémon Let's Go that was released one week before Black Friday.

7. The figure of 567k gives us a November 2017 value of 264k for the same five-day-period, leaving a weekly average of ~170k for the rest of the 2017 November tracking period. The explanation for those November numbers is that Super Mario Odyssey provided a significant boost and there wasn't any noteworthy stockpiling for the days surrounding Black Friday.

And now we'll just have to wait and see what Rol and the rest of the gang have to say about this, because this is by far the best argument that has been made against their position that there's an error with the 8.2m LTD figure.

I'm not  a math guy, and really we don't need all that math to know switch was significantly  lower then 800k based on 250 million revenue number, which just confirms  Nintendo basically confirms Nintendo 8.2 million number.



RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Have we addressed the $250M in sales portion of the PR? $250,000,000/$300 per switch = 833,333 switch units and that's assuming zero software and other hardware sales. TAX no included.

pretty much confirms nintendo PR numbers being real, or i know nintendo made a mistake on those numbers as well.

By now it's evident that neither you or fatslob have the necessary skills to provide a coherent counter-argument. Since this bores me, I will assume your position and do the necessary maths based on the pieces of information that are in Nintendo's PR.

1. The revenue figure of $250m only covers November 22nd to 26th which you apparently didn't comprehend, because you follow it up with an unnecessary assumption when it is right there in the PR that the figure includes hardware of Switch, 3DS, SNES Classic and NES Classic, as well as first party games and first party accessories. Excluded are third party games and third party accessories.

2. What ties into the above figure are sales of 1m Switch first party games over the same period. Since Nintendo had discounts of around 33% on selected first party titles on the Switch eShop, I'll put the average selling price of first party games over that period at $50 for simplicity's sake. That's $50m in spending.

3. Now comes the part with the unaddressed quantities that necessitate guesstimates.

3DS hardware - 100k at an ASP of $120 = $12m
3DS first party software - 150k at an ASP of $30 = $4.5m
Switch accessories - $8m, that's a combination of more than 100k Joy-Con sets and Pro Controllers
NES Classic - 50k units at $60 = $3m
SNES Classic - 50k units at $80 = $4m

Estimated total: $31.5m. Let's round this down to $30m for simplicity's sake.

4. Now we can substract a total of $80m from the $250m figure because of the things outlined in point 2 and 3. $170m divided by $300 gives us 567k units of Switch hardware sold during November 22nd-26th.

5. The figure of 567k is above the known value of Wii sales on its best Black Friday (single day): 500k. Let's assume there wasn't much more stock available than these 500k for the remaining four days of Nintendo's comparison and we are good.

6. The figure of 567k leaves us with ~300k for the preciding two weeks and a half in the November tracking period. That's just about enough to make it realistic to account for the hardware boost that happened because of Pokémon Let's Go that was released one week before Black Friday.

7. The figure of 567k gives us a November 2017 value of 264k for the same five-day-period, leaving a weekly average of ~170k for the rest of the 2017 November tracking period. The explanation for those November numbers is that Super Mario Odyssey provided a significant boost and there wasn't any noteworthy stockpiling for the days surrounding Black Friday.

And now we'll just have to wait and see what Rol and the rest of the gang have to say about this, because this is by far the best argument that has been made against their position that there's an error with the 8.2m LTD figure.

Whats funny is this really is the best argument against screwup. Funny enough I was just entertaining the theory of screwup, people really ran with it. Also bravo, you really outdid quickricks/fatslab arguments. 



 

I'm just kind of befuddled why the poster referred to them-self in the 3rd person "Rol and the rest of the gang" and the use of "their position".



Megiddo said:

I'm just kind of befuddled why the poster referred to them-self in the 3rd person "Rol and the rest of the gang" and the use of "their position".

Hes pretending to be quickrick/fatslob and coming up with a detailed argument for them



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