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quickrick on 30 November 2018
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RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Have we addressed the $250M in sales portion of the PR? $250,000,000/$300 per switch = 833,333 switch units and that's assuming zero software and other hardware sales. TAX no included.

pretty much confirms nintendo PR numbers being real, or i know nintendo made a mistake on those numbers as well.

By now it's evident that neither you or fatslob have the necessary skills to provide a coherent counter-argument. Since this bores me, I will assume your position and do the necessary maths based on the pieces of information that are in Nintendo's PR.

1. The revenue figure of $250m only covers November 22nd to 26th which you apparently didn't comprehend, because you follow it up with an unnecessary assumption when it is right there in the PR that the figure includes hardware of Switch, 3DS, SNES Classic and NES Classic, as well as first party games and first party accessories. Excluded are third party games and third party accessories.

2. What ties into the above figure are sales of 1m Switch first party games over the same period. Since Nintendo had discounts of around 33% on selected first party titles on the Switch eShop, I'll put the average selling price of first party games over that period at $50 for simplicity's sake. That's $50m in spending.

3. Now comes the part with the unaddressed quantities that necessitate guesstimates.

3DS hardware - 100k at an ASP of $120 = $12m
3DS first party software - 150k at an ASP of $30 = $4.5m
Switch accessories - $8m, that's a combination of more than 100k Joy-Con sets and Pro Controllers
NES Classic - 50k units at $60 = $3m
SNES Classic - 50k units at $80 = $4m

Estimated total: $31.5m. Let's round this down to $30m for simplicity's sake.

4. Now we can substract a total of $80m from the $250m figure because of the things outlined in point 2 and 3. $170m divided by $300 gives us 567k units of Switch hardware sold during November 22nd-26th.

5. The figure of 567k is above the known value of Wii sales on its best Black Friday (single day): 500k. Let's assume there wasn't much more stock available than these 500k for the remaining four days of Nintendo's comparison and we are good.

6. The figure of 567k leaves us with ~300k for the preciding two weeks and a half in the November tracking period. That's just about enough to make it realistic to account for the hardware boost that happened because of Pokémon Let's Go that was released one week before Black Friday.

7. The figure of 567k gives us a November 2017 value of 264k for the same five-day-period, leaving a weekly average of ~170k for the rest of the 2017 November tracking period. The explanation for those November numbers is that Super Mario Odyssey provided a significant boost and there wasn't any noteworthy stockpiling for the days surrounding Black Friday.

And now we'll just have to wait and see what Rol and the rest of the gang have to say about this, because this is by far the best argument that has been made against their position that there's an error with the 8.2m LTD figure.

I'm not  a math guy, and really we don't need all that math to know switch was significantly  lower then 800k based on 250 million revenue number, which just confirms  Nintendo basically confirms Nintendo 8.2 million number.