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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday NPD 2018

Kerotan on 28 November 2018
quickrick said:
ironmanDX said:

Sounds reasonable. I figured ps4 would be about flat YoY because of the growth of the Switch actually taking part in black Friday this year. People simply didn't believe me. Still could change though if there's no credible info.

PS4 sales will  depend on how much  spiderman bundles they shipped, it has nothing to do  with switch. I been trying to get a ps4 199$ bundle A day before BF with no luck.

I have to say sony is kinda of stupid a 249$ spiderman bundle would make a freaking killing in December.

If they don't have the stock there's no point doing those deals. We'll see next month do they get enough stock to do a 249 deal. 

LudicrousSpeed said:
Idk how PS4 didnt kill on CM with the bundles I saw. PS4 + RDR2 + extra controller for $199 is insanity, way better than Spider-Man imo.

It's obvious. Stock my man. 



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Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

The truth is that if those end up being the numbers then thats piss poor for all of them.

Because last year Nov NPD didn't include Cyber monday.  

How in the world would that be piss poor for all of them?

Small decline for PS4/XBO in their 6th November is a great feat and Switch would be up by a very large amount. The 3 combined would be near 4 million.

For switch maybe..... its doing about double its sales YOY.

But for PS4 and the X.... not so much.

But why I am saying this is poor for all is because unlike last year this nov includes CM sales. That was usually carried into december sales. 

Its  still great all round though, I my have exaggerated a little. 



quickrick on 28 November 2018

Here is a post made by benji
The estimate would also mean PS4 will beat the Switch by a MASSIVE margin for November.

Which again doesn't line up with anything I've seen. My data set would have to be biased towards Switch at a level I've never seen, ever in anything I've ever tracked.

I guess that's possible? Somehow?

ps4 about blow switch out of the water based on this estimate. please be true ;)




Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Miyamotoo said:
Benji about Cyber Monday:
"Good day for Switch and Xbox. Less so for PS4".

He then said:

"Shouldn't be that surprising PS4 is facing shortages and they didnt have very good deals for CM frankly. Should still take the month though I think"

Regardless, his word isn't the end all, be all anyway. Best to wait for all data to arrive.

I think its at least clear now who won.

First we knew it wasn't MS cause they didn't say anything. Not even about MAUs.

And now nintendo press release talks specifically about their 100%+ increase over the BF+CM window YOY. Which isn't really saying anything cause only God knows what they sold before that period and after. But the main take away is that they didn't even say anything about being the best selling hardware during that period. But more interestingly is that they could have doubled their BF+CM performance from last year and still end up only selling about 1.1M -1.2M for the whole month if the bulk of their sales fell into that 5 day window and everything before and after that was flat or sub par. 

Right now, it seems like not only did the PS4 win the BF + CM window (even if it may have lost CM) but it probably also won the month. More importantly, it can do all that and still be down YOY from last year Nov sales (which could explain why they aren't saying anything). This could really put the NS at around 1.2M for Nov and the PS4 at anywhere between 1.4M to 1.6M (+/- 75k).



colafitte on 28 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

He then said:

"Shouldn't be that surprising PS4 is facing shortages and they didnt have very good deals for CM frankly. Should still take the month though I think"

Regardless, his word isn't the end all, be all anyway. Best to wait for all data to arrive.

I think its at least clear now who won.

First we knew it wasn't MS cause they didn't say anything. Not even about MAUs.

And now nintendo press release talks specifically about their 100%+ increase over the BF+CM window YOY. Which isn't really saying anything cause only God knows what they sold before that period and after. But the main take away is that they didn't even say anything about being the best selling hardware during that period. But more interestingly is that they could have doubled their BF+CM performance from last year and still end up only selling about 1.1M -1.2M for the whole month if the bulk of their sales fell into that 5 day window and everything before and after that was flat or sub par. 

Right now, it seems like not only did the PS4 win the BF + CM window (even if it may have lost CM) but it probably also won the month. More importantly, it can do all that and still be down YOY from last year Nov sales (which could explain why they aren't saying anything). This could really put the NS at around 1.2M for Nov and the PS4 at anywhere between 1.4M to 1.6M (+/- 75k).

1.2M is too much in my opinion if Switch sold around 900k until CM..., you don't sell 300k the rest of the week. Switch is probably around 1'0M and PS4 could still be around 1'5-1'6M or even more. We won't know until official numbers are released.



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Miyamotoo on 28 November 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Miyamotoo said:
Benji about Cyber Monday:
"Good day for Switch and Xbox. Less so for PS4".

He then said:

"Shouldn't be that surprising PS4 is facing shortages and they didnt have very good deals for CM frankly. Should still take the month though I think"

Regardless, his word isn't the end all, be all anyway. Best to wait for all data to arrive.

I mean yeah, we dont talk about facts still, he just gave his thought on sales, not numbers at end.



Miyamotoo on 28 November 2018
quickrick said:
DonFerrari said:
Nintendo Switch


Nintendo Switch hardware sales grew 115 percent compared to the same period in 2017.
Lifetime sales of Nintendo Switch, which is entering only its second holiday season, have reached more than 8.2 million units.
Sales of first-party games, including digital downloads, topped 1 million units Nov. 22-26, beating 2017’s totals by 78 percent.
Nintendo Switch games Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!and Pokémon: Let’s Go, Eevee! have hit combined U.S. sales of more than 1.5 million units since their Nov. 16 launch.
Super Mario Party surpassed lifetime U.S. sales of 1 million units, becoming the fastest-selling game in the Mario Party series and the fifth million-selling first-party Nintendo Switch game in the U.S. alone, joining The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2.
Nintendo 3DS


Thanks in part to strong Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday sales, the total installed base for the Nintendo 3DS family of systems has hit 22 million.
Additionally, after 12 months of availability, lifetime combined sales of the Pokémon Ultra Sun and Pokémon Ultra Moongames crossed 2.2 million.


EDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nintendo Switch set two new records from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday: It became the best-selling Nintendo console in U.S. history for that five-day period, surpassing even Wii system sales. Nintendo Switch also had its best-selling week ever in the United States. In fact, according to Adobe Analytics, Nintendo Switch was among the most-purchased items online on Thanksgiving Day and the overall top-selling video game product online for the Black Friday-Cyber Monday time period.

Strong demand resulted in shoppers buying more than $250 million in Nintendo products from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, according to Nintendo’s internal sales figures, demonstrating that Nintendo has something for everyone this holiday season. That sales total accounts for video game systems like Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo 3DS family of systems, retro systems like Nintendo Entertainment System: NES Classic Edition and Super Nintendo Entertainment System: Super NES Classic Edition, as well as all Nintendo-produced games and accessories. Total U.S. hardware sales for Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday increased 45 percent over the same period in 2017.

And that doesn’t even take into account that one of the most anticipated video game events of the year is still to come: the Dec. 7 launch of the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate game. As previously announced, the game has become not only the most pre-sold Nintendo Switch game of all time, but also the most pre-sold Super Smash Bros. game ever in the series.

Unless otherwise noted, the following data from Nintendo covers Nov. 22 to Nov. 26, and is specific to the U.S. only:




THIS confirm PS4 won BF, but no idea by how much. We only know Switch is 117% BF through CM (5 days period), and that PS4 outdone that since Nintendo didn't say they won.

switch was at 7.38 million in the US before November so 8.2 million seems real weak if the numbers are correct. 

Week numbers for 5 days period? You do realise they said it sold 115% better than in same period of last year!? That's massive increase in any case. All points you loosing your bet, not wining.



colafitte on 28 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

switch was at 7.38 million in the US before November so 8.2 million seems real weak if the numbers are correct. 

Week numbers for 5 days period? You do realise they said it sold 115% better than in same period of last year!? That's massive increase in any case. All points you loosing your bet, not wining.

And how many was that last year??, 25k?, 50k?, 75k?. This is not BF week we are talking about, this is Nov 22 thursday to Nov 26 monday....

8'2M sold in USA aocording to last data received by Nintendo until 26 Nov. That means 900k for the month of November until Nov 26 with a week left. That the "weak" numbers that you can agree or not. 



Megiddo on 28 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

switch was at 7.38 million in the US before November so 8.2 million seems real weak if the numbers are correct. 

Week numbers for 5 days period? You do realise they said it sold 115% better than in same period of last year!? That's massive increase in any case. All points you loosing your bet, not wining.

Considering this is Black Friday + Pokemon, I'd also consider ~900k US Switch sales for the first ~25 days of November to be rather weak



Miyamotoo on 28 November 2018

Nintendo said best selling week even better than Wii week, and Wii had one 700k week for that time period,
so this mean that Switch sold more than 700k in that week.