this holiday season is going to be huge for them. people love pokemon and people love Smash. just discount the Switch to like $249 and it will sell out in seconds. expecting it to have 30 million total sales by the end of the year isnt even an outlandish claim

Next financials should do it.

meh that wasnt a high bar to begin with tbh.

cant wait to see what new switch they are working on will have internally.

It will probably beat Wii/PS1 unless Nintendo mismanages the rest of its product cycle. 

With Smash and Pokemon coming shortly, I think it will pass N64 soon enough

I realize Smash will be a big one, but I have a huge lack of interest in it. The last compelling thing in the franchise for me (aside from the 1-2 hours of fun I had with Cloud vs Link) was Brawl’s subspace emissary mode.

I think the Pokémon games are significantly more interesting due to their co-op promise. I’m one of the few utterly bored by the idea of typical Pokémon games with increasingly less inspiring casts. This one, returning to focus on the main Pokémon, along with ridding the grindy stuff and focusing on the more fun and satisfying elements is a lot more appealing. A couple hundred battles across the game experience is much more appealing to me than the same game content fluffed our with several thousand more battles.

Really, the only exciting thing about a new Pokémon game on Switch with another generation is that they might actually revolutionize the franchise in a way similar to Breath of the Wild, rather than just make another boring incremental sequel.

We’ll see what happens. Sales will likely be about 11-12 million more in Q3&4, and that is more than enough to justify the remaining 14.93M shipments; especially if they have big Q1 software next year. 

Which they will most probably do.

Honestly it will depend on the revisions as well. 

If they have a Switch Pro, it's a virtual lock, even without, 3DS made it to like 75 million, it would be very difficult for the Switch not to at least get to 90 mill just with standard Nintendo releases, minimal marketing, and a few standard price drops.