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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

 

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49

Talking about XB1 vs Switch in US, going buy Vgchartz numbers XB1 is currently at 22m in US, so what we can realistically expect LT, around 30m, no way it will hit 35m.
Switch will sell like 40-50% of its world wide sales in US, so if Switch just hit even 80m LT world wide, we talking around 30-40m in US alone.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 25 October 2018

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AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I have to admit I thought Quickrick was talking about Worlwide. My bad. And so, the cycle I mentioned in my last reply will continue onward!

I guess it's not that crazy of a prediction. The problem I have with it is that so far the Xbox is only in the lead by 300k, which is not a lot considering that the Switch has had a pretty horrid 1st party selection until the last two months of the year (popularity-wise). I ... guess I could see it happening. I mean, it's reasonable. I just don't think it will.

I think when ps5 and xbox 2 come out switch will be slow down considerably.



quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I have to admit I thought Quickrick was talking about Worlwide. My bad. And so, the cycle I mentioned in my last reply will continue onward!

I guess it's not that crazy of a prediction. The problem I have with it is that so far the Xbox is only in the lead by 300k, which is not a lot considering that the Switch has had a pretty horrid 1st party selection until the last two months of the year (popularity-wise). I ... guess I could see it happening. I mean, it's reasonable. I just don't think it will.

I think when ps5 and xbox 2 come out switch will be slow down considerably.

It will all depend on when those rumored console release and how Nintendo can continue improving aspects of the Switch with either new models or something else.



quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I have to admit I thought Quickrick was talking about Worlwide. My bad. And so, the cycle I mentioned in my last reply will continue onward!

I guess it's not that crazy of a prediction. The problem I have with it is that so far the Xbox is only in the lead by 300k, which is not a lot considering that the Switch has had a pretty horrid 1st party selection until the last two months of the year (popularity-wise). I ... guess I could see it happening. I mean, it's reasonable. I just don't think it will.

I think when ps5 and xbox 2 come out switch will be slow down considerably.

Yeah, Switch will than definitely start failing of a cliff. :D

Joke aside, when PS5 and XB2 come out, Switch will still have two its main points for selling, Nintendo games and hybrid nature that PS5/XB2 probably will not have. So nothing really will change for Switch, especially because Switch will probably in that time period have price point of around $200 with already strong built in line up of games while PS5/XB2 will be $400+ consoles. You can look even current situation, PS4/XB1 dont effect on Switch sales and Switch sales dont effect on PS4/XB1 sales, same will be with PS5/XB2.



What are your PS4-forecasts for October?
The PS4 bundles of Red Dead Redemption 2 and Call of Duty are appeared. a incredible month, again.



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KazumaKiryu said:

What are your PS4-forecasts for October?
The PS4 bundles of Red Dead Redemption 2 and Call of Duty are appeared. a incredible month, again.

yup i think RDR 2 will carry ps4 till next year then some. all other games will look like a joke next to it.



KazumaKiryu said:

What are your PS4-forecasts for October?
The PS4 bundles of Red Dead Redemption 2 and Call of Duty are appeared. a incredible month, again.

Current word is Black Ops IIII did very little to boost PS4 or Xbone.  Red Dead will do more.  Will be interesting to see how much, word is sales for October have thus far been run of the mill for all platforms.  The tracking tool has Switch leading the month with preorders for RDR2, Smash, and Diablo III bundles accounted for (all will fall in the NPD tracking period).



AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I have to admit I thought Quickrick was talking about Worlwide. My bad. And so, the cycle I mentioned in my last reply will continue onward!

I guess it's not that crazy of a prediction. The problem I have with it is that so far the Xbox is only in the lead by 300k, which is not a lot considering that the Switch has had a pretty horrid 1st party selection until the last two months of the year (popularity-wise). I ... guess I could see it happening. I mean, it's reasonable. I just don't think it will.

You have to account for the different launch timings of the Xbox One and Switch. The current cutoff in a launch-aligned comparison has the Xbox One go through two holiday seasons already while the Switch only has one. If you project what the comparison will look like at the 24-month-cutoff - which is the fairest comparison that can be made because both consoles will have gone through every month of the year twice - you'll be looking at a comfortable Switch lead of ~2m.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I have to admit I thought Quickrick was talking about Worlwide. My bad. And so, the cycle I mentioned in my last reply will continue onward!

I guess it's not that crazy of a prediction. The problem I have with it is that so far the Xbox is only in the lead by 300k, which is not a lot considering that the Switch has had a pretty horrid 1st party selection until the last two months of the year (popularity-wise). I ... guess I could see it happening. I mean, it's reasonable. I just don't think it will.

You have to account for the different launch timings of the Xbox One and Switch. The current cutoff in a launch-aligned comparison has the Xbox One go through two holiday seasons already while the Switch only has one. If you project what the comparison will look like at the 24-month-cutoff - which is the fairest comparison that can be made because both consoles will have gone through every month of the year twice - you'll be looking at a comfortable Switch lead of ~2m.

xbox one launched at a ridiculous 500$, i think that should be accounted for as well, i think only the extremely hardcore xbox fans would pay that much. 



quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

You have to account for the different launch timings of the Xbox One and Switch. The current cutoff in a launch-aligned comparison has the Xbox One go through two holiday seasons already while the Switch only has one. If you project what the comparison will look like at the 24-month-cutoff - which is the fairest comparison that can be made because both consoles will have gone through every month of the year twice - you'll be looking at a comfortable Switch lead of ~2m.

xbox one launched at a ridiculous 500$, i think that should be accounted for as well, i think only the extremely hardcore xbox fans would pay that much. 

Given how quickly the Xbox One price was cut to $400 and given how frequent special deals have been in the first 24 months of availability, what needs to be accounted for is that the Xbox One's momentum isn't as healthy as Switch's, therefore increasing the likelihood that Switch sells more than the Xbox One lifetime in the USA. The health of momentum has also been an important point in Switch vs. 3DS comparisons, hence why things are looking good for the people who placed their bets on Switch to sell more than the 3DS lifetime on a global basis.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments