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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

 

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49
GProgrammer on 19 October 2018

I did not think releasing a title even a big one like spiderman would have such a large impact this late in PS4's life cycle



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PortisheadBiscuit on 19 October 2018
GProgrammer said:
I did not think releasing a title even a big one like spiderman would have such a large impact this late in PS4's life cycle

That's why it's silly to think PS5 is coming in 2019 IMO, so much juice left in PS4 



JRPGfan on 19 October 2018
Carl said:
quickrick said:

the users here that make predictions  are such a small minority, were talking like 10 users probably.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-hw-predictions-for-2018-entire-year-closes-friday-february-2.18409/

That's a link for another forum with ~150 posts, where funnily enough I notice your own profile is banned.

Looking through the first page I see a mixed bag. The majority thought Switch would edge it based on a strong end to 2017, a bunch think that the PS4 will also just edge 2018 and a minority think that the Switch will "destroy" the PS4.

Kerotan said: 

Intresting link.

I counted 37 predictions on the first page.... this is how they go:
9 people thought PS4 would win.
26 people thought NSW would win.
2 people thought it would be a virtuel tie between the two.

Your right the majority (26/37) did think the Switch would be the clear sales leader for 2018.

About 24% (a bunch) thought that the PS4 could beat the switch in sales for 2018.

 

"...a minority think that the Switch will "destroy" the PS4."

18 people (out of 26 for the Switch) thought that the Switch would beat the PS4 by more than 500k, ei "destroy" it in terms of sales.
I wouldnt call that a minority....  if thats like ~70% of the people, that think the Switch will win.

70% is more than a minority.
More people than not, thought the Switch would be wrecking the PS4 in 2018.
Things just turned out differntly (so far)



Acevil on 19 October 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
GProgrammer said:
I did not think releasing a title even a big one like spiderman would have such a large impact this late in PS4's life cycle

That's why it's silly to think PS5 is coming in 2019 IMO, so much juice left in PS4 

Honestly I wish it didn't either, but I can still see them doing it within Late November 2019-March 2020, even if it should be late November 2020-March 2021. 



 

zorg1000 on 19 October 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

You are straight up lying, I have never once said I think Switch will destroy PS4. My prediction at the beginning of the year was Switch & PS4 both selling 17-18 million with a slight edge to Switch.

Your problem is you continuously speak in hyperbole, win =/= dominate.

so you never said switch is gonna probably take very npd this year? and the fear is real when people doubted Amazon accuracy.

I never said it would dominate/destroy like you just claimed. My stance has remained the same all year, a slight lead for Switch but wouldnt be surprised if PS4 edges it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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kazuyamishima on 19 October 2018

I remember the people that said "waiting for the switch to have stock to destroy everything else"

Now they go with "waiting for the switch to release big games to destroy everything"



PwerlvlAmy on 19 October 2018

Some people getting a little testy in here. Please remember to keep it respectful guys.

and on topic: I figured this Sept would happen.Spider-Man surprised people when it really shouldn't have. Everyone should've expected this type of number at least for the month of Sept due to a high quality big exclusive like that



NND: 0047-7271-7918 | XBL: Nights illusion | PSN: GameNChick

Nuvendil on 19 October 2018
kazuyamishima said:
I remember the people that said "waiting for the switch to have stock to destroy everything else"

Now they go with "waiting for the switch to release big games to destroy everything"

Dude, the stock issues were a year ago.  I have seen no one say that after stock was resolved.  I have, humorously, seen this thrown around for PS4 from time to time this year though :P

 

And it is a legitimate statement that a lack of big sellers has come out.  August had zero new Switch games chart and I'm willing to bet that will be the case for September too.  October will be the first month since July with a charting new release.  That IS going to effect sales.  

Now if you are referring to people who were predicting 25 mil this year, yeah, they're crazy.  But that's got nothing to do with those of us living in the real world.



globalisateur on 19 October 2018
Acevil said:
OTBWY said:

Show us these users, here, on VGC.

We can speak of other predictions that are more easily found (and actually really made). One of which is yours. The Switch would fall off a cliff right?. Well, the cliff still hasn't been seen yet. You got until december buddy.

Or the notion it would do as bad like the xbox one did last year during the time period before xbox one x launch, or that it would never beat PS4 in any NPD Months. Everyone should not be surprised at the users bias anymore.

On topic, PS4 did amazing, and in its 5th year. Goes to show what great well marketed title will do. Switch did alright, gained some momentum from last month. 

No, it's down 16% YoY. But I think it's because of those bundles pre-orders.



Carl on 19 October 2018
JRPGfan said:

Intresting link.

I counted 37 predictions on the first page.... this is how they go:
9 people thought PS4 would win.
26 people thought NSW would win.
2 people thought it would be a virtuel tie between the two.

Your right the majority (26/37) did think the Switch would be the clear sales leader for 2018.

About 24% (a bunch) thought that the PS4 could beat the switch in sales for 2018.

"...a minority think that the Switch will "destroy" the PS4."

18 people (out of 26 for the Switch) thought that the Switch would beat the PS4 by more than 500k, ei "destroy" it in terms of sales.
I wouldnt call that a minority....  if thats like ~70% of the people, that think the Switch will win.

70% is more than a minority.
More people than not, thought the Switch would be wrecking the PS4 in 2018.
Things just turned out differntly (so far)

Would depend on what you consider to be destroying the competition. I wouldn't say ~500k over the space of a year is destroying, that difference can easily be covered in either November or December. ~500k is less than 10% of a years NPD data. November 17 saw a difference of ~700k between them, while December saw a ~500k difference the other way.

That said, if we use your own terms of >500k as being "destroying" then 18 out of 37 predictions on the first page of a ResetEra thread is still a minority, not the "most" as rick proclaimed.