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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2018 NPD: Switch #1, Octopath Traveller #1 software, UPDATE

zorg1000 said:
LipeJJ said:

The way I see it Switch should peak next year (year 3) if Nintendo releases the games that are supposed to come out (mainline Pokémon alone should be worth 2 megahits combined like Zelda and Mario).

It could also get a price cut and/or revision.

Yep, there is also that. If Switch gets a revision, 2019 would be a good year for it, and even if it doesn't get one, I'm sure it will at least get a price cut or some great bundles.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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Miyamotoo said:
zorg1000 said:

It could also get a price cut and/or revision.

IMO its safe bet that Switch will have both of them next year.

 

BlackBeauty said: 

We will never know the real software sales of switch becaus nintendo don’t report eshop only downloads where as Sony reports everything.

We will know from Nintendo internal ship numbers of top 10 best selling games.

 

 

Lawlight said: 

Let me ask you - how many first party games has Nintendo sold on the Switch and how many has Sony sold on the PS4? Exactly - you cannot answer that.

You do realise you comparing sales of software of platforms where one is released 3.5 years before second and where one has around 4x bigger install base!?

Saying that, Switch already has 3 games that have sales over 10m or near 10m with install base of 20m, how many games with around 10m sales PS4 had with install base of around 20m at all? Not single one 1st party game probably in that time didnt pass even 5m, even if take in account 3rd party probably only GTAV was near 10m.

Keep it in context to the post I was replying to. He’s the one who came in wanting to compare first party sales. Swith has fewer big games than the PS4 so it’s normal that the Switch has sales concentrate on fewer titles. Imagine if the Switch was a popular platform for third parties and the Nintendo games faced as much competition as the PS4 first parties.



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

IMO its safe bet that Switch will have both of them next year.

 

We will know from Nintendo internal ship numbers of top 10 best selling games.

 

 

You do realise you comparing sales of software of platforms where one is released 3.5 years before second and where one has around 4x bigger install base!?

Saying that, Switch already has 3 games that have sales over 10m or near 10m with install base of 20m, how many games with around 10m sales PS4 had with install base of around 20m at all? Not single one 1st party game probably in that time didnt pass even 5m, even if take in account 3rd party probably only GTAV was near 10m.

Keep it in context to the post I was replying to. He’s the one who came in wanting to compare first party sales. Swith has fewer big games than the PS4 so it’s normal that the Switch has sales concentrate on fewer titles. Imagine if the Switch was a popular platform for third parties and the Nintendo games faced as much competition as the PS4 first parties.

I never get why when nintendo does well you come here and argue the same thing every time. Its been years with this but ill bite...

 

Your looking at it only in a dorect comparison to sony, which we wont ever truly know (as nintendo 3rd party will not be on the same level) but we can compare it to past nintendo consoles/handhelds for your same tiresome arguement. Switch Software sales have much better third party support than previous nintendo consoles/handhelds so far. In terms of selling third party games as well as a huge indie scene (aka much much more games competition than wii/ds/wiiu/3ds/n64/etc) so has that lowered first party sales in the slightest? Your words remember oh and it hasnt lol.

3D Mario

Zelda

SSB

Splatoon

Etc

 

All these will end up by far the best selling in their perspective franchises despite much more competition. So pls just stop with your never ending console war

 

Sony is doing extremly well, better than ever amd nintendo has the healthiest system in their life cycle since the snes. Calm down



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

IMO its safe bet that Switch will have both of them next year.

 

We will know from Nintendo internal ship numbers of top 10 best selling games.

 

 

You do realise you comparing sales of software of platforms where one is released 3.5 years before second and where one has around 4x bigger install base!?

Saying that, Switch already has 3 games that have sales over 10m or near 10m with install base of 20m, how many games with around 10m sales PS4 had with install base of around 20m at all? Not single one 1st party game probably in that time didnt pass even 5m, even if take in account 3rd party probably only GTAV was near 10m.

Keep it in context to the post I was replying to. He’s the one who came in wanting to compare first party sales. Swith has fewer big games than the PS4 so it’s normal that the Switch has sales concentrate on fewer titles. Imagine if the Switch was a popular platform for third parties and the Nintendo games faced as much competition as the PS4 first parties.

Fact that we are able to compare sales of 1st party games with two platforms where one was released 3.5 years earlier and has 4x bigger install base tell us just how much Switch 1st party games are selling better than Sony 1st party games, so yeah, fact is that 1st party games are selling better on Switch. Its not point only about number of games, 3rd party games are generaly much more popular on PS4 than 1st party games, in top 10 best selling PS4 games you have only one 1st party game. Also 3rd party games generaly are selling good on Switch even if 1st party games are selling better.



JSG87 said:
Replicant said:

I think Lawlight's point is that Switch needs strong sales now if it's as front loaded as other Nintendo consoles.

N64 (2nd year peak)
Launch: 1996
Peak: 1998

Gamecube (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2001
Peak: 2003

Wii (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2008

Wii U (1st year peak)
Launch: 2012
Peak: 2013

3DS (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2011
Peak: 2013

Switch (? year peak)
Launch: 2017
Peak: ?

 

On the contrary, PS consoles have all peaked in their 4th or 5th year with the exception of PS2.

PS1 (4th year peak)
Launch: 1994
Peak: 1998

PS2 (3rd year peak)
Launch: 2000
Peak: 2003

PS3 (5th year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2011

PS4 (4th/5th year peak)
Launch: 2013
Peak: 2017/2018

 

We can only speculate whether Switch will peak early or not so let's just be happy that it's selling great right now.

It feels like the Switch is more relevant that the Wii ever was despite the Wii having the highest sales. I fully expect The Switch to continue selling really well into its third or fourth year. Maybe it will peak in its 3rd or 4th year but The Switch honestly does feel like the most accepted of Nintendos consoles in a long long time regardless of sales.

Agreed. I think Switch will peak in 2019.

Unless of course if "Switch 2" is instead a "New Switch" or "Switch Pro" and therefore counted together with the original. In this case, Switch could peak later.



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Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

Keep it in context to the post I was replying to. He’s the one who came in wanting to compare first party sales. Swith has fewer big games than the PS4 so it’s normal that the Switch has sales concentrate on fewer titles. Imagine if the Switch was a popular platform for third parties and the Nintendo games faced as much competition as the PS4 first parties.

Fact that we are able to compare sales of 1st party games with two platforms where one was released 3.5 years earlier and has 4x bigger install base tell us just how much Switch 1st party games are selling better than Sony 1st party games, so yeah, fact is that 1st party games are selling better on Switch. Its not point only about number of games, 3rd party games are generaly much more popular on PS4 than 1st party games, in top 10 best selling PS4 games you have only one 1st party game. Also 3rd party games generaly are selling good on Switch even if 1st party games are selling better.

Uh no, we cannot compare those sales because we don’t have the numbers. Also, you’re looking at the sales of the biggest franchises out there on the PS4 like GTA, CoD and FIFA and saying that they outsell the first party games. That’s despite us knowing that those numbers don’t include digital. 



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

Fact that we are able to compare sales of 1st party games with two platforms where one was released 3.5 years earlier and has 4x bigger install base tell us just how much Switch 1st party games are selling better than Sony 1st party games, so yeah, fact is that 1st party games are selling better on Switch. Its not point only about number of games, 3rd party games are generaly much more popular on PS4 than 1st party games, in top 10 best selling PS4 games you have only one 1st party game. Also 3rd party games generaly are selling good on Switch even if 1st party games are selling better.

Uh no, we cannot compare those sales because we don’t have the numbers. Also, you’re looking at the sales of the biggest franchises out there on the PS4 like GTA, CoD and FIFA and saying that they outsell the first party games. That’s despite us knowing that those numbers don’t include digital. 

We have numbers, look at VGC numbers, also we have official numbers for Switch also. Thats a point, you have plenty of bigger franchises more popular on PS4 compared to 1st party games. Digital numbers are not included for 3rd parties not just for 1st parties. Like I wrote, 3rd party games are generaly much more popular on PS4 than 1st party games, PS4 were selling great even before start reciving great 1st party games. But going back to intiall point, fact is that 1st party games are selling better on Switch.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 23 August 2018

Lawlight said:
BlackBeauty said:

? Not true to what? Your delusion? 

Total Sofware report for switch are only retail games.

No, Nintendo reports all software sales in their earnings reports.

Actually they sadly do not, based on the wording in the IR report in Nintendo's software total. They report retail copies with their retail+digital total. Download only titles are not included in that total they provide (but obviously do appear in revenue). Sony software does include everything in the total software total. 

Last edited by Acevil - on 23 August 2018

 

Miyamotoo said:
zorg1000 said:

It could also get a price cut and/or revision.

IMO its safe bet that Switch will have both of them next year.

 

BlackBeauty said: 

We will never know the real software sales of switch becaus nintendo don’t report eshop only downloads where as Sony reports everything.

We will know from Nintendo internal ship numbers of top 10 best selling games.

 

 

Lawlight said: 

Let me ask you - how many first party games has Nintendo sold on the Switch and how many has Sony sold on the PS4? Exactly - you cannot answer that.

You do realise you comparing sales of software of platforms where one is released 3.5 years before second and where one has around 4x bigger install base!?

Saying that, Switch already has 3 games that have sales over 10m or near 10m with install base of 20m, how many games with around 10m sales PS4 had with install base of around 20m at all? Not single one 1st party game probably in that time didnt pass even 5m, even if take in account 3rd party probably only GTAV was near 10m.

That was perf!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Lawlight said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Because ps4 and Switch came out at the same time, LOL. Why don't you wait till the end of Switch life? At the moment, BoTW and Odyssey give both Horizon and Knack a run for their money, even the small games like Kirby and Yoshi can still sell least over 1 million. Sony small budget first party games? Well, it sell very big, major success... to Sony fans 

Now or in the future you will never be able to do a comparison because you won’t have the numbers do the comparison. You say that long lasting IPs like Kirby and Yoshi (knowing that these games typically sell 2-3 million) that  can sell at least over 1 million? Do you think it’s different for the Sony’s small games?

Well any Nintendo game with shipments of over 1M show up in their quarterly reports, so we have a good idea about most of their first-party titles. Does Sony also give such detailed quarterly updates to it's software shipments (honest question)? Because if they do, from there to roughly finding out how much first-party titles both Switch and PS4 sold should be pretty easy.