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Forums - Gaming - SIE Q1 2018 (Apr-June): 3.2m PS4s shipped (down vs Q1 2017@3.3m) / FY18 forecast increased to 17m

Intrinsic said:
kurasakiichimaruALT said:

1.6 million on the shelves? Is that even possible?

Very very possible, as others have said it should even be higher. I do suspect sony is limiting the amount of consoles its shipping out though. Forwhatever reason. probably trying to avoid what happened before. Or maybe they are clearing the channels for  revised SKU.

Barkley said:
Sony really underestimated the PS4 this year, perhaps underestimating GoW is a factor in that. They might even have to increase the forecast again, but I'm content with 17m if it sticks.

Anyone that is aware of what sony has done all of this gen would have seen that 16M previous forcast for exactly what it was. Sony always seems to undersell their expectations maybe just only so they can come back and outperform them. Or they are opting to err on the side of caution. Either way there was no way they would only ship 16M consoles. 

Just watch as the shipment total increases every other quater until the end of the FY.

Kerotan said:
So for the last quater was it 3.2m ps4 vs 1.8m switch? Insane ps4 sells so well without a price cut. Surely a big price cut this holiday or will Sony go with another temporary holiday promotion? They certainly have the software to keep sales high at its current price but its just crazy to think they're not dropping the price further.

Unfortunately seeing things like this makes me feel there is very little chance of us seeing a price cut this year. Like as is there is absolutely no business sense in dropping the price. That literally would be like leaving free money on th table. They are already shipping more than twice the number of their biggest rival, and 3 times the nimber of their direct rival. 

Selling on par this year with what they managed last year. Are well on track to hit 90M sales this year. Which would mean they had another at least 17M console year.

Outside a holiday prmotion, why would they drop the price? Charity?

Sohold off until all the megatonslike  rdr2, spiderman and tlou2 are out then cut it by 100 with a new super slim 7nm model in 2019?e



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DonFerrari said:
colafitte said:
The question people have to start asking is not if PS4 is going to sell 100m or when is going to sell 100m. The question for me, is if PS4 is going to be the fastest console ever to reach 100m sales. Considering is selling faster than PS2 and the fact that Wii started to fall in sales in the same timeframe, my answer is yes and it will be a record difficult to beat. A huge milestone.

First year of Switch a lot were betting Switch would outsell PS4 and aligned it would keep outselling all the time.

Oh!, I'm sure Switch is going to sell a lot in its 3 first years...even surpassing PS4 sales. But to reach 100m sales lifetime, this requires a level of consistency beyond the third or fourth year of the console that no Nintendo home console has ever had before. Nintendo is the best developer in the world and their games some of the best selling ones, but their consoles are designed to serve as the best way of selling their own software. People buy the most famous Nintendo games and play them through the life of the console and for diverse reasons don't play other famous 3rd party games in those consoles. Nintendo basically can't compete with the library of PS consoles and that's why each PS home console has sold more than 80m. Despite some success with very good indie games, Switch is still lacking the biggest 3rd party games and when the next PS or Xbox reveals, Switch will become even more obsolete for 3rd parties than now. When PS5/XBox Two launch in 2019/2020 i'm pretty sure it will affect Switch and will slow the sales of the console. Despite all of this I expect Switch to sell around 70m-80m lifetime, a very good number of sales for a home console in my opinion.

Last edited by colafitte - on 31 July 2018

Farsala said:
1.6m on shelves or in transit is still pretty low, but at least shipments are back to normal compared to last quarter. And so many people were saying PS4 sales didn't reach 80m because Sony always announces the milestones. Well apparently they don't feel 80m is significant, but maybe when they pass PS3 LTD it will be significant.

That's not low.  That's actually about normal.  The only time it's really higher is during the holidays.  Sony doesn't always give us sellthrough to go with shipped, but sometimes they are close enough that we can guess a few things.

On March 1st of 2015, they announced they had sold through 20.2M units.  They shipped 22.3M as of March 31st for the same year.  Even if they had only sold 500K for March, which I kinda doubt that was the case, they would have had 1.6M on shelves.  It was most likely closer to 1M.  The gap between shipped and sold for the end of 2015 was also only ~1.8M.

Last year, the gaps seemed a little higher.  VGC estimated it at ~1.98M for this same point in time.  Of course, it was PS4's best year, so it's understandable that you would need more stock on shelves.  This year sales are a little lower than last year's, so it stands to reason you wouldn't need as much stock on shelves to get you through the same amount of time.



thismeintiel said:
Farsala said:
1.6m on shelves or in transit is still pretty low, but at least shipments are back to normal compared to last quarter. And so many people were saying PS4 sales didn't reach 80m because Sony always announces the milestones. Well apparently they don't feel 80m is significant, but maybe when they pass PS3 LTD it will be significant.

That's not low.  That's actually about normal.  The only time it's really higher is during the holidays.  Sony doesn't always give us sellthrough to go with shipped, but sometimes they are close enough that we can guess a few things.

On March 1st of 2015, they announced they had sold through 20.2M units.  They shipped 22.3M as of March 31st for the same year.  Even if they had only sold 500K for March, which I kinda doubt that was the case, they would have had 1.6M on shelves.  It was most likely closer to 1M.  The gap between shipped and sold for the end of 2015 was also only ~1.8M.

Last year, the gaps seemed a little higher.  VGC estimated it at ~1.98M for this same point in time.  Of course, it was PS4's best year, so it's understandable that you would need more stock on shelves.  This year sales are a little lower than last year's, so it stands to reason you wouldn't need as much stock on shelves to get you through the same amount of time.

It is low for PS4. You give me one example, its better to have all examples. Here is 2 more examples.

After holidays 2017 Sony had a 1.2m gap, a low shipment/sales gap.

After holidays 2016 Sony had a 3.7m gap, a high shipment/sales gap.



colafitte said:
DonFerrari said:

First year of Switch a lot were betting Switch would outsell PS4 and aligned it would keep outselling all the time.

Oh!, I'm sure Switch is going to sell a lot in its 3 first years...even surpassing PS4 sales. But to reach 100m sales lifetime, this requires a level of consistency beyond the third or fourth year of the console that no Nintendo home console has ever had before. Nintendo is the best developer in the world and their games some of the best selling ones, but their consoles are designed to serve as the best way of selling their own software. People buy the most famous Nintendo games and play them through the life of the console and for diverse reasons don't play other famous 3rd party games in those consoles. Nintendo basically can't compete with the library of PS consoles and that's why each PS home console has sold more than 80m. Despite some success with very good indie games, Switch is still lacking the biggest 3rd party games and when the next PS or Xbox reveals, Switch will become even more obsolete for 3rd parties than now. When PS5/XBox Two launch in 2019/2020 i'm pretty sure it will affect Switch and will slow the sales of the console. Despite all of this I expect Switch to sell around 70m-80m lifetime, a very good number of sales for a home console in my opinion.

Not sure Switch will sustain aligned sales over PS4 for 3 full years... but maybe it can



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Kerotan said:

Sohold off until all the megatonslike  rdr2, spiderman and tlou2 are out then cut it by 100 with a new super slim 7nm model in 2019?e

That would be my take on it. They may do something for Xmas and black friday, but I no longer see them permanently dropping the price to $199. If they still keep outselling everyone else this year, I expect them to drop the price around E3 or GDC 2019. And probably even have a GOW/RDR2/both bundle at that price point.

And annouce a PS5 6-9 months from whenever that price cut happens.



DonFerrari said:
thismeintiel said:

That's because of the holidays. It's normally lower than 2-3M.

My guess it a lot of those PS Plus subs were 3 month tryouts bought at Xmas. Luckily, it looks like most stuck around, since it only dropped by ~300K.

Also, I expect a ~$50 price cut this year. They are definitely not dropping to $199, though, except for Black Friday. 

Well, PS+ have been higher every Q. Sure it could be 3 months on Holiday, but still is the first drop. But I think on Q4 we shall be over 40M PS+

Could also be some disappointed PS3 and Vita gamers who canceled their subscriptions after this announcement: https://blog.us.playstation.com/2018/02/28/ps-plus-games-for-march-additional-service-changes/

Probably only a temporary dip until they get over the disappointment and finally make the switch to PS4.



Conina said:
DonFerrari said:

Well, PS+ have been higher every Q. Sure it could be 3 months on Holiday, but still is the first drop. But I think on Q4 we shall be over 40M PS+

Could also be some disappointed PS3 and Vita gamers who canceled their subscriptions after this announcement: https://blog.us.playstation.com/2018/02/28/ps-plus-games-for-march-additional-service-changes/

Probably only a temporary dip until they get over the disappointment and finally make the switch to PS4.

Could be, but considering before PS4 put the mandatory PS+ for online the PS+ gone from like 2M to what we have today, and that we are 4 years into the gen I don't think the impact of the games from PS3 and Vita being removed is probably minimal.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Does someone know where I can quickly find the missing Q results for the PS4 ?
Here I could not find :

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Sales_Wiki

 



Amnesia said:

Does someone know where I can quickly find the missing Q results for the PS4 ?
Here I could not find :

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Sales_Wiki

 

The wikipedia page for PS4 has it, its under the RELEASE section.



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