I know Pokemon is Pokemon and it comes in two forms, but I kind of thing Smash will just sell well over the entire life of the system while the true Pokemon game coming out next year will probably end any interest in Go.

So uh... ugh, what fool would pick against Pokemon? I'm gonna go with wishful thinking and say Smash!!

Smash Ultimate Easily

Game Quality Smash>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Pokemon
Gaame preorder Smash>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Pokemon
Game Hype Smash>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Pokemon

It’s amazing how many people are downplaying Pokemon (this seems to happen every year), the biggest media franchise in the world. This has all the ingredients of a perfect storm of events to have the biggest launch in series history, save some hardcore fans who are upset about the more casual approach.

Then again, Smash Ultimate does have the potential to be the best-selling game in the series. Series history and the Switch’s popularity suggest at least 13m.

I’m going to go with Pokemon, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I’m wrong.

Do people really downplay Pokemon every year? And I do not think this time it is so much that people are down playing it. Just cautious with it not being a mainline entry.

Smash Bros will sell more.

I'd say is the opposite lol, is not about people downplaying Pokémon, is about people downplaying Smash, since people even doubt 15 million may happen when right now it's should easy surpass 20 million units.

Depends on if tbone's Smash prediction ends up being true or not.

Every year I see at least some people who go "Oh, Pokemon will definitely sell less than [insert other game coming out]" and then Pokemon sells 10m+ like usual and blows the other game away. It's likely not the same people ever year, but it is amazing how many people underestimate it.

Not saying that isn't possible, especially if it lives up to the hype. But, series history doesn't suggest it. 15m would make it the best-selling Smash game ever.

Smash 4 sold 14.5 million lifetime, and is still selling, which mean it could even surpass 15 million or at least getting really close.
15 million for Smash Ultimate would mean barely reach smash 4 / brawl performance.

This is not about how good the previus games sold, not anymore. This is about how big Smash is compared to others Nintendo series.

You really think 15 million is a realistic prediction for Smash Ultimate when even Zelda breath of the wild will easy hit that milestone? Mario Odyssey will most likely surpass 20 million too, so you think is realistic to expect a Smash game to sell less than a 3D Mario?

That's why you can't simply look at sales history anymore, because the best selling 3D Mario game didn't even reach 13 million, and the best selling Zelda didn't even reach 9 million. I mean, yes you CAN look at history data, but with the knowledge that Smash is destinated to surclass it, simple as that.

I can see something like that even for the Pokémon series, indeed i believe a future mainly Pokémon game should surpass 20 million / maybe 25 million ( too hard to say right now), but for Pokémon Let's go... i just don't see that happen yet. Is not a mainly Pokémon game. Even if it hit 20 million (which would make it the best selling Pokémon of the last 20 years), it'll still have an hard time beating Smash Ultimate.

That's if you combine the 3DS and Wii U versions, which Nintendo (and Sakurai) don't consider to be the same game. They have different modes, stages and even their Classic Modes are completely different. The roster is the same.