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Forums - Sony Discussion - John Kodera: “PS4 Is Entering The Final Stages Of It’s Life-Cycle.”

Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

Agreed. 7nm Zen and Vega are on schedule to be mass produced in 2019. I do think there is a slight chance they'll hold off until 2020, but there's no way they are waiting til 2021.

While they will be produced in 7nm, they will be priced high early on because it takes time to master a production node. Yield rates are pretty bad early on, which necessitates to sell chips at a high price to offset this - hence why a new node is generally started with high-end or server hardware to gobble up the high costs early on. If Sony wants a Zen2 based 8-core processor and a GPU with 64 compute units, you could be pretty damn sure that combo alone would cost Sony in 2019 about the expected 499$ release price of the PS5 without any other parts included.

They usually get around that issue by not building monolithic sized chips that are extremely complex.

And often a new node is used on small ARM chips, not server chips... I mean shit. TSMC's 7nm process already has a ton of partners signed up using the process, majority are all pretty much ARM chips with big x86 and GPU's coming later.



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Pemalite said:

They usually get around that issue by not building monolithic sized chips that are extremely complex.

And often a new node is used on small ARM chips, not server chips... I mean shit. TSMC's 7nm process already has a ton of partners signed up using the process, majority are all pretty much ARM chips with big x86 and GPU's coming later.

I think that might be AMD/Sony's plan, to build next generation infinity fabric so that they can build these APU "chiplets" then connect them on a high speed on-die interconnect so that they can roll their previously failed vision (HSA) into their new work and get cost savings for producing smaller dies like they do for their Threadripper or EPYC platform ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Pemalite said:

They usually get around that issue by not building monolithic sized chips that are extremely complex.

And often a new node is used on small ARM chips, not server chips... I mean shit. TSMC's 7nm process already has a ton of partners signed up using the process, majority are all pretty much ARM chips with big x86 and GPU's coming later.

I think that might be AMD/Sony's plan, to build next generation infinity fabric so that they can build these APU "chiplets" then connect them on a high speed on-die interconnect so that they can roll their previously failed vision (HSA) into their new work and get cost savings for producing smaller dies like they do for their Threadripper or EPYC platform ... 

Indeed. I think AMD's approach to building smaller chips to bolster yields and then using their fabric to get them working together might be the key approach going forward with smaller geometries.

We are at an exciting point in the semiconductor industry, there are a heap of different ways things could go and I am keen to see it all play out.



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Pemalite said:

Indeed. I think AMD's approach to building smaller chips to bolster yields and then using their fabric to get them working together might be the key approach going forward with smaller geometries.

We are at an exciting point in the semiconductor industry, there are a heap of different ways things could go and I am keen to see it all play out.

Personally, I'm most interested in the progress of EUV especially in Samsung's case where they just had breakthrough with their custom in-house EUV mask solution so I hope to see some Snapdragon 855 with integrated 5G modems will out for sale by the end of 2018 ... (a year ahead of everybody in deploying this new scanner technology)

Once EUV is out the door we can look forward to a new change in transistor structure like their proprietary GAAFETs (gate all around) known as MCBFETs (multi-channel bridge) from FinFETs by the end of 2021 ... 

Samsung is starting to become more and more like what Intel was than the current Intel ... 



Pemalite said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

While they will be produced in 7nm, they will be priced high early on because it takes time to master a production node. Yield rates are pretty bad early on, which necessitates to sell chips at a high price to offset this - hence why a new node is generally started with high-end or server hardware to gobble up the high costs early on. If Sony wants a Zen2 based 8-core processor and a GPU with 64 compute units, you could be pretty damn sure that combo alone would cost Sony in 2019 about the expected 499$ release price of the PS5 without any other parts included.

They usually get around that issue by not building monolithic sized chips that are extremely complex.

And often a new node is used on small ARM chips, not server chips... I mean shit. TSMC's 7nm process already has a ton of partners signed up using the process, majority are all pretty much ARM chips with big x86 and GPU's coming later.

That's always a bulk process, not a HPP (High Power Plus) process as needed for PCs, Consoles and servers. Bulk processes are ready earlier because they are less complex but in return also much less powerful. For High Power processes server chips or High-End GPU are generally the way to go. Hence why the x86 and GPU production at TSMC is coming later: Their High Power Process is not yet in production, only their Bulk processes.

Edit: The problem with not building monolithic is small with CPU (mainly just higher latency), but not nearly so easy to solve in GPU. Navi is potentially (and hopefully) coming with a solution to this problem, otherwise it will need a pretty big GPU - bigger in square mm than PS4 Pro by around 50% even though produced in a 7nm process just to get a chip powerful enough to get enough distance between itself and the Pro. This would not only be pretty expensive for a console chip due to it's size, but also a pretty large heat producer

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 23 May 2018

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twintail said:
PS5 aint coming in 2021. PS4 final phase will exist with PS5 launch and abe viable at least a year beyond.
Pretty much like every other generation

I have been predicting nov-dec 2020 ps5 release for years now, thats almost 2021.

Would be the perfect time for a real power gap compared to xb1x.

Would be enough time for sony's dev teams to make a big game much sooner then they did with ps4.



 

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VAMatt said:
ZODIARKrebirth said:
not really surprising, but on the other side, the best games comes always out at the final stage of life of a console

Right.  I feel like games are just starting to get everything out of the current gen.  In fact, there's probably still a year or so before we've seen the best that devs can do with the Pro and X.  I'm good with 3 more years in the current generation. 

I just wish MS would tell us whether they're really giving up on generations.  If so, I'll likely pick an X soon.  But, if they're going to move into a new generation, I think I'll skip it.  I already have a PS4 Pro, so it is hard to justify another mid-gen upgrade at this point.  

if we think only of the games we already know, that will come out in the next 2 years, and then are fore sure some unannounced games...



I feel like I just got my PS4. PS4 can handle a few more years.



Shadow1980 said:
2020 and 2021 are both plausible. 2021 does give them more time to get an affordable system that is as powerful as possible, and if the PS4 isn't massively down YoY next year, the sales situation will allow them to put off the PS5's release. No sense in releasing a new system when your current one is still doing well, after all.

2019 however is too early, and 2022 too late.

Except Sony always releases their systems when their predecessor is still hot. It's how you maintain momentum. PS3 to PS4 is the only exception, mainly because they stretched out the gen to recoup early losses. The PS4 did not have that problem. 



thismeintiel said:
Shadow1980 said:
2020 and 2021 are both plausible. 2021 does give them more time to get an affordable system that is as powerful as possible, and if the PS4 isn't massively down YoY next year, the sales situation will allow them to put off the PS5's release. No sense in releasing a new system when your current one is still doing well, after all.

2019 however is too early, and 2022 too late.

Except Sony always releases their systems when their predecessor is still hot. It's how you maintain momentum. PS3 to PS4 is the only exception, mainly because they stretched out the gen to recoup early losses. The PS4 did not have that problem. 

PS3 was still hot, just past the peak.



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