In progress NPD predicting tool

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 08 May 2018

05/08/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 23 (+8) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 43 (-3) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 49 (+4) - 484.60$
5 (+1) - Xbox One S 500Gb Hot Wheels - 57 (+8) - 237.95$
6 (+1) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 58 (+13) - 249.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 60 (-2) - ??
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 76 (+9) - 393.85$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb God of War - 86 (-23) - TP

PS4 : 66 + 41 + 25 = 132 points (-14) ; XBO : 54 + 44 + 43 = 141 points (+27) ; NS : 170 + 106 = 276 (+21) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 6 (+2) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 9 (+13) - 499.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 15 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (+2) - 299.00$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 80 (-25) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+15) ; XBO : 170 + 140 + 21 = 331 points (+47) ; NS : 180 + 120 = 300 points (+20)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 16 (+6) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 64 (-8) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 83 (-6) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 84 (+8) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 100 (+10) - 359.99$
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 101 (+30) - 359.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb COD IW - 118 (-4) - 299.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 150 (R) - 359.99$
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 163 (-22) - 399.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 166 (+18) - 279.99$
11 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle 2 - 185 (-2) - 359.99$

Out of Top 100 :

11 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 190 (R) - 499.99$

PS4 : 175 + 88 + 68 + 42 + 19 = 392 points (+2) ; XBO : 18 points (+3) ; NS : 68 + 52 + 50 + 26 + 8 = 204 points (+40)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 574.6 points (-6.2) ; Month Average : 661.37 points/day
2 - NS : 484.8 points (+60.8) ; Month Average : 456.85 points/day
3 - XBO : 197.0 points (+34.0) ; Month Average : 176.35 points/day

jason1637

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jason1637 on 08 May 2018

Great stuff Symbios!

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Madword on 08 May 2018

From this will you then be predicting numbers of sales (or did I miss that already)... you know 500 points equals 250k etc...

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Megiddo on 08 May 2018

From what I could gather, this current formula was formed to have the same ratio as what the March NPD results were, so I think it's more about the ratio than the specific points themselves. I could be wrong though. Also there was only like a week or so to project for March so April will be the first time that we get a full months' worth of this tool's performance.

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 09 May 2018

Yeah, we will try to get the ranking right first... then we will try to guess ratio between systems. I don't think we will ever be able to predict sale numbers this way.

Also, current formula is only based on 5 days of data in March. So I fully expect to twist it again when April NPD numbers arrive.

We can say the first real prediction from this tool will be for May NPD (that is if we have April results soon enough so I can change the formula in time to have updated numbers...)

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 09 May 2018

05/09/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 22 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 43 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 44 (+5) - 484.50$
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 51 (+9) - ??
6 (-) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 61 (-3) - 266.99$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 63 (+13) - 393.85$
8 (-3) - Xbox One S 500Gb Hot Wheels - 71 (-14) - 237.95$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 66 + 50 + 38 = 154 points (+22) ; XBO : 64 + 40 + 30 = 134 points (-7) ; NS : 170 + 108 = 278 (+2) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-3) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 8 (-2) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-2) - 299.00$
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 13 (-4) - 499.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 24 (-9) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-7) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 80 (-25) - 299.99$

PS4 : 185 + 175 = 360 points (-25) ; XBO : 150 + 104 = 254 points (-77) ; NS : 170 + 100 = 270 points (-30)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 17 (-1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 68 (-4) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 81 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 102 (-19) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 105 (-5) - 359.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb COD IW - 115 (+3) - 299.99$
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 130 (+20) - 359.99$
8 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 143 (-42) - 359.99$
9 (+1) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 169 (-3) - 279.99$
10 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle 2 - 176 (+9) - 359.99$
11 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 183 (-20) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 84 + 70 + 43 + 9 = 376 points (-16) ; XBO : 16 points (-2) ; NS : 50 + 48 + 36 + 29 + 13 = 176 points (-28)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 571.2 points (-3.4) ; Month Average : 651.36 points/day
2 - NS : 452.4 points (-32.4) ; Month Average : 456.36 points/day
3 - XBO : 174.0 points (-23.0) ; Month Average : 176.09 points/day

JRPGfan

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JRPGfan on 09 May 2018

Symbios63 said:
Here is the April graph :

Intresting.

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Bofferbrauer2 on 09 May 2018

Symbios63 said:
05/08/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 23 (+8) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 43 (-3) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 49 (+4) - 484.60$
5 (+1) - Xbox One S 500Gb Hot Wheels - 57 (+8) - 237.95$
6 (+1) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 58 (+13) - 249.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 60 (-2) - ??
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 76 (+9) - 393.85$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb God of War - 86 (-23) - TP

PS4 : 66 + 41 + 25 = 132 points (-14) ; XBO : 54 + 44 + 43 = 141 points (+27) ; NS : 170 + 106 = 276 (+21) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 6 (+2) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 9 (+13) - 499.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 15 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (+2) - 299.00$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 80 (-25) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+15) ; XBO : 170 + 140 + 21 = 331 points (+47) ; NS : 180 + 120 = 300 points (+20)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 16 (+6) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 64 (-8) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 83 (-6) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 84 (+8) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 100 (+10) - 359.99$
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 101 (+30) - 359.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb COD IW - 118 (-4) - 299.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 150 (R) - 359.99$
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 163 (-22) - 399.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 166 (+18) - 279.99$
11 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle 2 - 185 (-2) - 359.99$

Out of Top 100 :

11 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 190 (R) - 499.99$

PS4 : 175 + 88 + 68 + 42 + 19 = 392 points (+2) ; XBO : 18 points (+3) ; NS : 68 + 52 + 50 + 26 + 8 = 204 points (+40)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 574.6 points (-6.2) ; Month Average : 661.37 points/day
2 - NS : 484.8 points (+60.8) ; Month Average : 456.85 points/day
3 - XBO : 197.0 points (+34.0) ; Month Average : 176.35 points/day

Great graphs, and much more realistic compared to the old one

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 10 May 2018

05/10/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-7) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 46 (-2) - 484.50$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 52 (-1) - ??
5 (+3) - Xbox One S 500Gb Hot Wheels - 55 (+16) - 237.95$
6 (-3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 58 (-15) - TP
7 (-1) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 79 (-18) - 259.99$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 97 (-34) - 393.85$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 49 + 43 + 4 = 96 points (-58) ; XBO : 60 + 46 + 22 = 128 points (-6) ; NS : 135 + 130 = 265 (-13) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 9 (-1) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 13 (-) - 499.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 20 (+4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (+2) - 299.00$
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 96 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 170 = 365 points (+5) ; XBO : 150 + 115 + 5 = 270 points (+16) ; NS : 180 + 104 = 284 points (+14)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 15 (+2) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 60 (+8) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 65 (+16) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 92 (+13) - 359.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 102 (-) - 299.00$
6 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 110 (+33) - 359.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb COD IW - 155 (-40) - 299.99$
8 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 166 (+17) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 130 (+20) - 359.99$
9 (+1) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 169 (-3) - 279.99$
10 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle 2 - 176 (+9) - 359.99$

PS4 : 175 + 92 + 86 + 23 + 18 = 394 points (+18) ; XBO : 0 points (-16) ; NS : 60 + 50 + 46 = 156 points (-20)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 543.8 points (-27.4) ; Month Average : 640.60 points/day
2 - NS : 424.8 points (-27.6) ; Month Average : 453.20 points/day
3 - XBO : 156.4 points (-17.6) ; Month Average : 174.12 points/day

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 11 May 2018

05/11/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-9) - 299.00$
3 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 38 (+20) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 45 (+1) - 484.50$
5 (-) - Xbox One S 500Gb Hot Wheels - 53 (+2) - 237.95$
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 61 (-9) - ??
7 (-) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 74 (+5) - 259.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 97 (-34) - 393.85$

PS4 : 76 + 40 = 116 points (+20) ; XBO : 62 + 48 + 27 = 137 points (+9) ; NS : 150 + 100 = 250 (-15) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 8 (+1) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 12 (+1) - 499.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 22 (-2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (-3) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 96 (R) - 299.99$

PS4 : 195 + 175 = 370 points (+5) ; XBO : 155 + 108 = 268 points (-2) ; NS : 180 + 98 = 278 points (-6)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 21 (-6) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 52 (+8) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 63 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 101 (+1) - 299.00$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 107 (-15) - 359.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 122 (-12) - 359.99$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 191 (-25) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb COD IW - 155 (-40) - 299.99$

PS4 : 160 + 100 + 88 + 5 = 353 points (-41) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 50 + 47 + 40 = 137 points (-19)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 519.8 points (-24.0) ; Month Average : 629.62 points/day
2 - NS : 392.6 points (-32.2) ; Month Average : 447.69 points/day
3 - XBO : 163.2 points (+6.8) ; Month Average : 173.13 points/day

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