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Forums - Sony Discussion - UPDATE: RUMOR: PS5 Dev Kits Sent Out This Year. Launch 2019. BC With PS1/PS2/PS3. Sony acquires Silent Hill. Blade Runner PS5 Game At PSX. And More.

I don't disagree at all with this. But the industry right now does not need more power in a arbitrary manner. Sony has no reason to jump ship. PS4 is killing it right now. They haven't seen such strong success since PS2. Why abandon a ship that is smoothly sailing? And to what effect or gain?



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Intrinsic said:
At this point, I'm just going to say it will be flat out stupid for anyone to think the PS5 will come before 2020.

It makes absolutely zero sense that sony would do that. They have absolutely nothing to gain by doing something like that.

I mean outside fan wet dreams or conspiracy..... what tangible reason dows anyone have as to why they think sony will launch the PS5 in 2019? Why? They are the market leaders, and are yet to see a drop in yearly PS4 sales, oushing onto an install base of almost 100M, selling more software than ever before (which is where the money is)' know they don't have to worry about either of their competition till at least 2020 (MS just released the X1, they arent going to release another console in 2019 and its now obviois that the NS isn't taking away from PS sales).

So why would sony throw all that away and rush into a new gen?

I expwct the PS5 no sooner than 2020... could even be as late as 2021.

Why did they "rush" into next gen when the PS1 sold ~21M the year before the PS2 launched, and had only been out for a little over 5 years?  Why did they "rush" into next gen when the PS2 sold ~20M the year before the PS3 launched, and had been out for ~6 years?  To use your logic, they should have held off those next gen machines by 1-2 years.  The real answer as to why they would do it is to stay relevant and advance as technology advances.  Sony isn't going to stay still just because their current console is selling well, just so someone else can fill that void.  In 2019, there's a good shot Sony can put out a PS5 that is ~2x the power of the X.  That would be ~2.9x the power of the Pro.  But, more importantly, it would be ~6.5x the power of the OG PS4.  That definitely warrants a gen leap.

There's also the fact that those who adopted early in 2013 for $399, will be those looking to upgrade in 2019 for $399-$449.  Those who adopted mid-gen for $299-$349, will probably wait to adopt at that price, too.  Then, you always have late adopters who can only justify buying or can only afford to buy at $149-$199.  They will wait for PS5 to hit that price, too.  Sony covers every spectrum of adopter.  Sales keep coming in for both machines, while the PS brand stays fresh and known for power, as far as consoles go.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 11 March 2018

thismeintiel said:
Intrinsic said:
At this point, I'm just going to say it will be flat out stupid for anyone to think the PS5 will come before 2020.

It makes absolutely zero sense that sony would do that. They have absolutely nothing to gain by doing something like that.

I mean outside fan wet dreams or conspiracy..... what tangible reason dows anyone have as to why they think sony will launch the PS5 in 2019? Why? They are the market leaders, and are yet to see a drop in yearly PS4 sales, oushing onto an install base of almost 100M, selling more software than ever before (which is where the money is)' know they don't have to worry about either of their competition till at least 2020 (MS just released the X1, they arent going to release another console in 2019 and its now obviois that the NS isn't taking away from PS sales).

So why would sony throw all that away and rush into a new gen?

I expwct the PS5 no sooner than 2020... could even be as late as 2021.

Why did they "rush" into next gen when the PS1 sold ~21M the year before the PS2 launched, and had only been out for a little over 5 years?  Why did they "rush" into next gen when the PS2 sold ~20M the year before the PS3 launched, and had been out for ~6 years?  To use your logic, they should have held off those next gen machines by 1-2 years.  The real answer as to why they would do it is to stay relevant and advance as technology advances.  Sony isn't going to stay still just because their current console is selling well, just so someone else can fill that void.  In 2019, there's a good shot Sony can put out a PS5 that is ~2x the power of the X.  That would be ~2.9x the power of the Pro.  But, more importantly, it would be ~6.5x the power of the OG PS4.  That definitely warrants a gen leap.

There's also the fact that those who adopted early in 2013 for $399, will be those looking to upgrade in 2019 for $399-$449.  Those who adopted mid-gen for $299-$349, will probably wait to adopt at that price, too.  Then, you always have late adopters who can only justify buying or can only afford to buy at $149-$199.  They will wait for PS5 to hit that price, too.  Sony covers every spectrum of adopter.  Sales keep coming in for both machines, while the PS brand stays fresh and known for power, as far as consoles go.

This is the fan service type ideology I'm talking about. Where some people say things simply cause they sound good. Let me give you reasons as to why what you are saying wouldn't happen.

  1. This isn't the PS1/PS2. Its a very different world today than it was then. With the PS1 sony and nintendo and even sega were all competing in the exact same market. Its like people forget the dreamcast was released a year before the PS2. And the gamecube was just aroind the corner. And even tjis new thing called the Xbox. Releasing early then (or late if you consider the dreamcast) was very necesary to consolidate their market share and momentum.

    The PS2 was the same story, MS forced their hand by releasing the 360. Even when sony released a year later, it wasobvious they weren't ready for the new gen. Also, look how much the PS3 cost.

  2. Anything sony can do in 2019, it will cost them less to do in 2020...... but more importantly, everything anyone is saying about what sony can do on 2019 is all dependent on the availabilitu and adoption of 7nm fabrication tech. Yes, thats the ONLY affordable way to have a console that is at least twice as powerful than the XB1X. Now that tech isn't available anywhere at all. And this is 2018. 

    More importantly when it does become available its going to cost sony way more per chip in its year of availability than it would in the year following that. This has to do with yeilds. You see, when sony pays for chips, they pay for wafers not the chips themselves. So say ideally you can get around 100 chips per wafer and ur paying approx $100/chip it means sony is paying $10,000 for every wafer. Now if that wafer only produces 80 usable chips due to manufacturing infancy..... sony will still be paying $10000/wafer. See how thats a problem?

  3. Sony is not sitting down doing nothing by waiting. Its like people don't get that its simply IMPOSSIBLE for sony to release a PS5 with around 2 times the power of the XB1 and up at a $400-$500 proce point until 7nm chips necome available. Its impossible. Impossible. That has to come first before any talk of next gen ia even feasable. And you know what? MS is waiting for the exact same thing. 
I want the PS5 to come as much as the next guy....... its just that i know to wait for 7nm chips to start hitting the market first. And i'm not talking about some power point presentation of when AMD (who has no hand in chip foindaries ability to hit 7nm) tjinks they will have their next fen architecture bla bla bla...... those things can realistically take years later than whenever amd originally projected. 16nm chips just hit the market 2 years ago..... wanna guess how long we were stuck on 28nm??


Intrinsic said:

 

 



  1. Anything sony can do in 2019, it will cost them less to do in 2020...... but more importantly, everything anyone is saying about what sony can do on 2019 is all dependent on the availabilitu and adoption of 7nm fabrication tech. Yes, thats the ONLY affordable way to have a console that is at least twice as powerful than the XB1X. Now that tech isn't available anywhere at all. And this is 2018. 

    More importantly when it does become available its going to cost sony way more per chip in its year of availability than it would in the year following that. This has to do with yeilds. You see, when sony pays for chips, they pay for wafers not the chips themselves. So say ideally you can get around 100 chips per wafer and ur paying approx $100/chip it means sony is paying $10,000 for every wafer. Now if that wafer only produces 80 usable chips due to manufacturing infancy..... sony will still be paying $10000/wafer. See how thats a problem?

  2. Sony is not sitting down doing nothing by waiting. Its like people don't get that its simply IMPOSSIBLE for sony to release a PS5 with around 2 times the power of the XB1 and up at a $400-$500 proce point until 7nm chips necome available. Its impossible. Impossible. That has to come first before any talk of next gen ia even feasable. And you know what? MS is waiting for the exact same thing. 
I want the PS5 to come as much as the next guy....... its just that i know to wait for 7nm chips to start hitting the market first. And i'm not talking about some power point presentation of when AMD (who has no hand in chip foindaries ability to hit 7nm) tjinks they will have their next fen architecture bla bla bla...... those things can realistically take years later than whenever amd originally projected. 16nm chips just hit the market 2 years ago..... wanna guess how long we were stuck on 28nm??

 

You making a lot of speculation in your post about wafers and what is possible. I simply predict a ps5 release in 2019 because of ps4 pro. Sony proved they can release a new console on new transistor node and gpu architecture very quickly. And because of this they can release ps5 in 2019 with 7nm, navi gpu with gddr6 and zen cpu.

We will probably see first 7nm product this summer from the new ipad pro, the 2018 iphones models and Huaweis smartphones end of this year. The first 16nm product we saw was iphone 6s released at the end of 2015 (We saw ps4 pro at the end of 2016). So absolutely 2019 is possible.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Trumpstyle said:

You making a lot of speculation in your post about wafers and what is possible. I simply predict a ps5 release in 2019 because of ps4 pro. Sony proved they can release a new console on new transistor node and gpu architecture very quickly. And because of this they can release ps5 in 2019 with 7nm, navi gpu with gddr6 and zen cpu.

We will probably see first 7nm product this summer from the new ipad pro, the 2018 iphones models and Huaweis smartphones end of this year. The first 16nm product we saw was iphone 6s released at the end of 2015 (We saw ps4 pro at the end of 2016). So absolutely 2019 is possible.

No. no speculation at all. And the bolded part of ypur post is actually helping to prove my point. 

Firstly, don't mistake arm processors for x86. Totally different worlds. 

Secondly the only reason the pro exists is because of the availability of 16nm fabrication. But even at that they weren't going to be making Pros to the order of which they would be making a base PS4. Those things matter. The fact the PS4 exists and they havw kept its price at $299 allows them take a small hit on the pro or at worst break even-on each box. Thats the price you pay early adoption.

Even worse, and more relevant..... do you know that say sony releases in 2019 with hot of the lone 7nm chips.... MD can release the exact same console a year later, with the exact same specs.... but theirs not only be cheaper but also about 25-30% more powerful? Even though both consoles has the exact same-ram, same cpu and gpu cores....everything. Just look at the Pro against tje XB1X. The X has only a 4 compute unit GPU advantage (36 vs 40CU), yet its got a GPU that's 50% more powerful.

I'm not saying 2019 isn't possible. I'm saying to begin with its IMPOSSIBLE for their to be a next gen until 7nm chips get here. Now if that happens around 2019' I'm then saying it makes no sense foe sony to rush to market with a costly 7nm chipset when they stand to gain in so many different ways by juat waiting for a year or two. The single biggest reason waiting wouldnt have been an optipn foe them is MS. And I doubt they are releasing an XB2 next year.



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Errorist76 said:
thismeintiel said:

Exactly. If MS launches early, they are going to piss off everyone who bought a X. We also have seen that MS isn't treating Xbox like a main priority anymore. There isn't going to be massive 1st party output next gen. At least nothing compared to Sony's.  And you can guarantee that Sony is going to take advantage of the year later launch, with better specs at the same price. Add in B/C with PS4, with Pro enhancements, and you can bet a lot of PS4 gamers are going to stick with PS. Really, history has proven that all Sony has to do is not screw up, like they did with the PS3 launch, and they win big. PS is just that big of a brand WW.

Having said that, I expect Sony is aiming for a late 2019 launch, with Xbox again scrambling to match that date, or they launch 6-12 months later. 2019 just makes the most sense. 6 years, which is a good length for a gen. 25th Anniversary of the PS brand (limited edition 25th anniversary SKU at launch, possibly with PS1 coloring, and the S in PS5 looks like a backwards 2.) Pro, their mid-gen console, released 3 years after the PS4, and PS5 would launch 3 years after it. I think we're looking at a $399-$449 price, with a slightly customized Ryzen/Vega APU that's roughly 2x the power of the X. If so, the 5, but even more so the Pro, is going to be an absolute beast. 

I agree on your reasoning. Makes the most sense imho...also Sony can’t afford to relax and wait. They need to stay in front, need to make the next move. That doesn’t mean PS4 won’t be selling anymore or won’t get any games. It’s possible Sony will fade out the slim at some point, but I’m not sure this will happen. We all know Sony does support its consoles for along time, even if the next gen is already out.

PS5 at 25th anniversary would be a fitting present.

The 25th anniversary is a good point, no doubt. PS isn't going to let that go without making a HUGE deal about it. Launching PS5 in conjunction with the 25th would most certainly be a big way to kick off next gen. However, the jump to next gen most certainly has questions and hurdles that seem tough to overcome by even late 2019. While I do think it's potentially possible, I really and truly think unless the PS5 ends up just another stepping stone, more like the phone model once again, costing $400 again, that the price is going to hit $500. Which wouldn't be that big of a deal as long as they have room to drop the price the year after if they need to, to compete with 'XB2' if it launches for $400 or is $500 and spec'd to make PS5 look really weak.

Now, to go out on a limb to an extent, if PS really would like to push PS5 off until say 2021/2022, then using that 25th anniversary to usher in a PS4 Premium with SE models, would work like a charm. The logo idea wouldn't work with 4 unfortunately, but it could easily be marketed anyway. If I remember correctly, the more capable Neo protoype that would have launched 2017, was supposed to use a version of Ryzen. Assuming it would still have been fully compatible with PS4, like Pro is now, then it would be the perfect console to bridge the gap between PS4 and PS5.

Not only could you end up getting a 25th SE console, but one with 8-10TF, and a Ryzen CPU that most likely would be capable of 60fps. Whether or not games would be held back at 30fps on Premium for the time being like some XB1X games, or maybe just the single player campaigns could be 60fps if the multi has to be 30fps for all PS4's, but it would probably allow that PS4 Premium to play PS5 games with reduced visuals in the future. That would also allow PS to push PS5's tech even further and launch at $500, which would be less of a shock 2021/2022, and would be acceptable if the PS4 Premium only cost $300 at that point in time and was FC.

Maybe they don't even make a 'Premium' per se, but instead of a Pro Slim, they just drop Pro and launch a Pro 2 (Premium) for $400. I know that's never been done, but neither has a mid gen Pro model. PS4 Pro V2, so you have version 2, or 52 (25 backwards). Maybe just call it PS4 Pro V to signify it's ties to PS5. Maybe the SE consoles could have PS4 Pro 2V or V25 or V2.5 or V2-5. How bout a more simple PS4 Pro 25 with the 2 in red and 5 in yellow, teal, and blue like the PS logo? Maybe the 5 is tucked in behind the 2 and on and angle just like the PS logo. PS4 Pro II and Pro IIV? I dunno, but it definitely could be marketed in the name as well.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 11 March 2018

there is some truth to proposing BC because sony filed a patent for that not that long ago

PS5 will probably launch 2020. just looking at the big years of console. 2019 will probably be the biggest year in games. and thats most of the time the last year of the console before a new one is released the year after

 

2019 isn't ridiculous. we will know by feburay next year.



Intrinsic said:
At this point, I'm just going to say it will be flat out stupid for anyone to think the PS5 will come before 2020.

It makes absolutely zero sense that sony would do that. They have absolutely nothing to gain by doing something like that.

I mean outside fan wet dreams or conspiracy..... what tangible reason dows anyone have as to why they think sony will launch the PS5 in 2019? Why? They are the market leaders, and are yet to see a drop in yearly PS4 sales, oushing onto an install base of almost 100M, selling more software than ever before (which is where the money is)' know they don't have to worry about either of their competition till at least 2020 (MS just released the X1, they arent going to release another console in 2019 and its now obviois that the NS isn't taking away from PS sales).

So why would sony throw all that away and rush into a new gen?

I expwct the PS5 no sooner than 2020... could even be as late as 2021.

Well, we’ll see about that. Developments and deals with chip manufacturers like that are made years in advance...Sony can’t just delay everything for a year or two just because their console is still selling well. If the PS5 will feature backwards compatibility, there‘s no reason not to release it. All the biggest and latest PS4 games are scheduled for 2019 atm. They could release as cross-platform titles additionally, just like GTA 5 and TLOU did. Sony could even have GT7 ready for launch, as a system seller.

This has nothing to do with fanboyism, but with Sony wanting to stay ahead of the competition. Again...why do you think Sony would throw away anything? It doesn’t mean a let’s say 250,- Pro Slim wouldn’t sell anymore, just because a 500,- is already available. They’ll be way beyond 100 million until then already with no way of stopping yet.



Intrinsic said:

The X has only a 4 compute unit GPU advantage (36 vs 40CU), yet its got a GPU that's 50% more powerful.

It's actually 42.9%.
That is an 11.11% extra CU advantage to the Xbox One X and the rest is made up from it's clockspeed advantage (28.64%)
However... The Xbox One X also has a massive 50% ROP advantage by default, which also operates 28.64% faster, which is where the real advantage lays, which plays into it's bandwidth advantage too which is significant.

Flops/CU's isn't everything. A balanced, efficient design can be far more important.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Intrinsic said:
Trumpstyle said:

You making a lot of speculation in your post about wafers and what is possible. I simply predict a ps5 release in 2019 because of ps4 pro. Sony proved they can release a new console on new transistor node and gpu architecture very quickly. And because of this they can release ps5 in 2019 with 7nm, navi gpu with gddr6 and zen cpu.

We will probably see first 7nm product this summer from the new ipad pro, the 2018 iphones models and Huaweis smartphones end of this year. The first 16nm product we saw was iphone 6s released at the end of 2015 (We saw ps4 pro at the end of 2016). So absolutely 2019 is possible.

No. no speculation at all. And the bolded part of ypur post is actually helping to prove my point. 

Firstly, don't mistake arm processors for x86. Totally different worlds. 

Secondly the only reason the pro exists is because of the availability of 16nm fabrication. But even at that they weren't going to be making Pros to the order of which they would be making a base PS4. Those things matter. The fact the PS4 exists and they havw kept its price at $299 allows them take a small hit on the pro or at worst break even-on each box. Thats the price you pay early adoption.

Even worse, and more relevant..... do you know that say sony releases in 2019 with hot of the lone 7nm chips.... MD can release the exact same console a year later, with the exact same specs.... but theirs not only be cheaper but also about 25-30% more powerful? Even though both consoles has the exact same-ram, same cpu and gpu cores....everything. Just look at the Pro against tje XB1X. The X has only a 4 compute unit GPU advantage (36 vs 40CU), yet its got a GPU that's 50% more powerful.

I'm not saying 2019 isn't possible. I'm saying to begin with its IMPOSSIBLE for their to be a next gen until 7nm chips get here. Now if that happens around 2019' I'm then saying it makes no sense foe sony to rush to market with a costly 7nm chipset when they stand to gain in so many different ways by juat waiting for a year or two. The single biggest reason waiting wouldnt have been an optipn foe them is MS. And I doubt they are releasing an XB2 next year.

Dude Xbox one x launched at 499$, ps4 pro at 399$, Microsoft also takes a loss selling the xbox one x, so no Microsoft can't launch a new console in 2020 that is cheaper and more powerful. Also you do understand that Sony will also benefit from yields improvements in their ps5 if they launch in 2019???

Launching in 2020 will bring very minor hardware performance gains compared to a 2019 release. There is just nothing big that comes out 2020, but yes you will better yields on 7nm that is so minor it's pointless to mention.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!