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Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2018 NPD predictions thread

 

which console will sell the most

Switch, by a lot 7 11.11%
 
Switch, barely 31 49.21%
 
PS4, by a lot 10 15.87%
 
PS4, barely 7 11.11%
 
XB1, by a lot 3 4.76%
 
XB1, barely 5 7.94%
 
Total:63

February is a 4 weeks month.

 

Important release

        

 

Possible hardware impact:
- XB1 pricedrop + PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds bundle

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K


Last year
[PS4] 398K
[XB1] 215K
[NSW] N/A

 

Predictions thread archivie

2018 predictions threads: January;
2017 predictions threads:
 January; FebruaryMarch; April; MayJune; July; August, SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2016 predictions threads: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2015 predictions threads: January; February; March; April; MayJune; JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Around the Network

[NSW] 365K
[PS4] 356K
[XB1] 338K



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

X - 250
4 - 240
S - 260



[NSW] 353k
[XB1] 335k
[PS4] 306k



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Hmm.

PS4 396K
NSW 352K
XB1 265K



Around the Network

NSW 400K
PS4 330K
XBOX One 325K



We all know Sony domination is a real thing and there is nothing Microsoft or Nintendo can do about it....

Send a Friend Request On PSN :P

Ryng_Tolu said:

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K

Wasn't the #1 predictor on ResetEra different from this? Is this just better-guess estimates?

Well, assuming that's less than a couple of percentage points off from reality, that means that the weekly average for the PS4 is down slightly YoY (maybe 3-4%), while the XBO's is up a fair amount (maybe around 18-20%). I'll use that for my February predictions, though my guess for the Switch is going to have to be just that.

NSW: 400k
PS4: 375k
XBO: 360k



[NSW] 365k
[PS4] 355k
[XB1] 325k

Last edited by Green098 - on 28 February 2018

Shadow1980 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K

Wasn't the #1 predictor on ResetEra different from this? Is this just better-guess estimates?

Well, assuming that's less than a couple of percentage points off from reality, that means that the weekly average for the PS4 is down slightly YoY (maybe 3-4%), while the XBO's is up a fair amount (maybe around 18-20%). I'll use that for my February predictions, though my guess for the Switch is going to have to be just that.

NSW: 400k
PS4: 375k
XBO: 360k

Those are the numbers i have using the 5 best predictions on ERA, is not only the best one.

 

Actually, i have pretty precise numbers with PS4 at 253-254K, and XB1 at 234-235K. The Switch is the only console with a fair big range, 255K to 285K, the ~270K is the estimate i choise but could be wrong +-15K.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

I'm not going to predict numbers but the I think the order will be NSW>X1>PS4.

switch will continue it's insane momentum.

last month xb1 was on ps4's heels, and this month the discounts will push it up and over.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.