They had a dozen weeks in the 20-30k range last year and will have 15m for the FY.
Right. And this fiscal year won't have a launch. So take that away from the 15m and how much is left? How much more does Nintendo need to increase its sales? This ain't the time for Nintendo to be complacent.
Neither did the current fiscal year.
Nintendo is forcasting 15 million shipped from April 1, 2017-March 31, 2018. As of Dec 31, they were at 12.13 million so they need to ship 2.87 million this quarter to reach that which is about 220k/week.
Japan represents about 1/4 of Switch shipments at this point, so they need to ship a little over 700k to Japan this quarter. They have already sold ~450k with 5 weeks to go.
If it retains 40k/week it will be ~650k sold this quarter so right about 700k shipped is right.
No sign of them being complacent, they are right on track to reach their goals.