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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

quickrick on 21 February 2018
Acevil said:
quickrick said:

i said it would be flat. falling off a cliff i used for people expecting 20 million this year, as opposed to there expectations.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8663089

"if it sells as good as it did this year in europe and US, then i would admit i was wrong."

It seems, you are going to admit you are wrong one way or another, by your own definition. 

Other things you said: "LOL your gonna be surprised dude when switch sales are gonna fall of a cliff in 2018. 2017 will be nothing like 2018". This goes against everything you said about it being Flat. 

I get you won't admit you are wrong, so I leave with this post:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8654871

"holla at me next year when ps4 is beating switch every month."

HOLLA!

LOL ok i would like see what switch did this month. switch is doing much better then expected, but i need to know the numbers, before we can talk about anything. for all we know they all did around 260k for 5 weeks which is nothing amazing.



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Player2 on 21 February 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Hahahahahahahahahahah

whats' so funny about this? nobody expected xbox to be so close to ps4/switch in jan. xbox and ps4 have the same system sellers and it's selling strong, xbox is taking sales from ps4, it's obvious. 

Can you say "PS4 would've won if it wasn't for you meddling kids Xbox!" like a Scooby Doo villain?



zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
fatslob-:O said:
newwil7l said:

That is the thing. Switch is performing much better in the west than the 3DS. Which is why 20 million isn't unrealistic.

Define "much better" ... 

So far in their respective lifetimes 3DS the was pulling off a weekly average of 58K/week at the start of the new year in the US while in the most optimistic scenario (don't have solid numbers so far) the Switch's weekly average so far is 70K (~350K for January possibly) which translates to a 20% improvement ...

Assuming that the Switch holds that weekly improvement over the 3DS it's on track to sell 4.2M units for the US this year while there's a very real possibility that the Switch could be down YOY in Japan this year with maybe ~3M units sold so how do you propose Nintendo make up that 12M+ unit differential ? (even after factoring Europe the Switch would still be well short of 20M units) 

Shipments this fiscal year outside Japan.

3DS-7.83 million

NSW-9.00 million

 

Nintendo is forcasting just under 3 million this quarter, thus far Japan has represented about 25% of shipments so that leaves 2.25m for the West.

End of fiscal year shipments

3DS-8.76 million

NSW-~11.25 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick on 21 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

LOL ok i would like see what switch did this month. switch is doing much better then expected, but i need to know the numbers, before we can talk about anything. for all we know they all did around 260k for 5 weeks which is nothing amazing.

You don't need to see Switch sales. It's already verified by NPD that you were wrong.

according to npd they all basically sold the same, and with it being a 5 week month, it's makes everything more complicated.



curl-6 on 21 February 2018

Well, I'll admit I was wrong; I thought Switch momentum would slacken in the early months of 2018.



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Acevil on 21 February 2018
curl-6 said:

Well, I'll admit I was wrong; I thought Switch momentum would slacken in the early months of 2018.

Curl, I know that was tough to do, but it is good that you admitted it. I been wrong such as: I was super pessimistic on switch in general, think I predicted 25-33 million max at one time and I am wrong about that. 

Last edited by Acevil - on 21 February 2018

 

EricFabian on 21 February 2018
quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

You don't need to see Switch sales. It's already verified by NPD that you were wrong.

according to npd they all basically sold the same, and with it being a 5 week month, it's makes everything more complicated.

but Switch sold more. You can't spin that



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fatslob-:O on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:

Shipments this fiscal year outside Japan.

3DS-7.83 million

NSW-9.00 million

 

Nintendo is forcasting just under 3 million this quarter, thus far Japan has represented about 25% of shipments so that leaves 2.25m for the West.

End of fiscal year shipments

3DS-8.76 million

NSW-~11.25 million

I'd also be interested in getting hard numbers from NPD too ...



quickrick on 21 February 2018
EricFabian said:
quickrick said:

according to npd they all basically sold the same, and with it being a 5 week month, it's makes everything more complicated.

but Switch sold more. You can't spin that

nothing to spin selling 5k-10k more doesn't mean anything, the important thing is actual numbers.



FloatingWaffles on 21 February 2018
Intrinsic said:
FloatingWaffles said:

You might not consider it a major release, but the game was obviously intended to be big. Capcom even said that Monster Hunter World was their attempt at bringing the game a bigger audience worldwide, they wanted/intended for it to be a huge release. 

The PS4 did great in Japan thanks to Monster Hunter World for a few weeks, gave it quite the boost. Obviously Monster Hunter is much bigger in Japan than the rest of the world, but that's why Monster Hunter World exists in the first place, Capcom wanted to try to make it bigger in the rest of the world. 

Plus, even if you don't think it's a major release or anything, it still is much more than the Switch had that month. Switch literally had like nothing that was noteworthy in January, where as PS4 at least had DragonBall Fighter Z and Monster Hunter World, so that's why it's pretty amazing that Switch still outsold everything since it shows that even in a month where the system doesn't have any big game releases it can still sell well just on the hardware itself. 

Not gonna lie I don't understand the reasoning of most here these days.

Should we just all pretend like the PS4 hasn't already sold like 20M+ in NA already? Hasn't had the bulk of the japanese heavy hitters already too, which means those interested in games like these would mostly have got the PS4. Or should we pretend that Monster hunter is suddenly a system seller in NA? Or that the PS4 is in its 5th year?

You wanna see where its really care about and has an effect? look at japan. 

Couldn't it also be that capcom intended to sell this game to the already established PS4 userbase? 

Like its great that the NS won, but do we really have to find ways to make everything else look bad to emphasize its win?

If you ask me, that the PS4 is even holding its own to a new console is a feat in of itself.

This post makes no sense, I don't even know where to start. What's your point?

Acknowledging that the Switch has done better than the PS4 for January and the other months that the Switch has done better in doesn't mean that someone's taking away the PS4's success it already had thus far since it launched. 

Also @ bolded if what you got out of my post was somehow you think that I was apparently trying to make the PS4 look bad, when I didn't say anything negative about PS4 in any way, then I don't know what to tell you man. 

Last edited by FloatingWaffles - on 21 February 2018