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Forums - Sales - SONY Q3 Earnings report

Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

If I had to make a guess, PSN revenue will be higher in Q1-Q3, because they have less seasonal variability than total revenue, but when Nintendo launches their online service and they get more mobile games up and running, it won't even be fun to compare the two because it'll be so skewed. (at least it won't be fun for Kerotan)

I doubt it. Nintendo has revenue of 857 billion yen through three quarters, so PSN would have to have 300 billion yen in each quarter to exceed that. While PSN has less seasonal variability than total revenue, digital software sales are still notably higher during the holiday quarter because overall software sales are obviously significantly higher during the holiday quarter as well.

If we use the percentage of PSN revenue of total revenue in Q3 (a generous 45%) and scale it to Q1-3 we get 675 billion yen. I hope my no-calculator-maths didn't fail me here.

Just to be clear, I'm talking about calendar quarters. So when I say Q1-Q3, I mean jan-sep. And I'm talking about 2018.

Playstation Network revenue in jan-sep can certainly reach 900 billion yen btw, though it will be a bit tough. Jan-sep 2017 was already at 628 billion (apr-dec was at 718, no idea where you got your extrapolation from haha), and network revenue has been growing at about 40% annually.

I think you misunderstood me, I was making a prediction about jan-sep 2018, not a statement about apr-dec 2017.

Last edited by Teeqoz - on 02 February 2018

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Kerotan on 02 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

Nintendo - 483 billion yen

PSN - 300 billion yen

It's not even close.

*pokes Kerotan with pitchfork*

If you played mgs3 you'd know we like it rough



Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

Just to be clear, I'm talking about calendar quarters. So when I say Q1-Q3, I mean jan-sep. And I'm talking about 2018.

Playstation Network revenue in jan-sep can certainly reach 900 billion yen btw, though it will be a bit tough. Jan-sep 2017 was already at 628 billion (apr-dec was at 718, no idea where you got your extrapolation from haha), and network revenue has been growing at about 40% annually.

I think you misunderstood me, I was making a prediction about jan-sep 2018, not a statement about apr-dec 2017.

Yes, I understood your post as April-December 2017.

I got the extrapolation from using already available figures in this thread (I didn't want to sift through Sony's financial results to find the actual figures) and the extrapolation was sufficient to make my point that PSN revenue does not exceed Nintendo's total revenue in the timeframe April-December 2017.

As for January-September 2018 which you actually meant, I still doubt it. Nintendo's revenue has experienced a large surge and hardware and software sales for Switch are only going to grow year over year.

Okay, but just so I've made myself understood, every reference to Q1, Q2 etc. in this post is in reference to calendar quarters.

If we take Playstation's network revenue if Q1-Q3 2017, and apply a 35% growth rate, that gives us about 850 billion for Q1-Q3 2018. Nintendo has forecast 160 billion yen revenue in Q1 2018. So Nintendo needs to make 690 billion yen in revenue in Q2 and 3 to be equal. In Q2+Q3 2017, they made 374 billion. As far as I can find, Nintendo has only had more than 690 billion yen for Q2+Q3 twice - in 2008 (837 billion yen) and in 2007 (694 billion yen).

From april to september in 2008, Nintendo shipped a total of 24 million hardware units. That's in 6 months, and without the holidays. In the same timeframe in 2017, they "only" shipped 22 million.

Yeah, those hardware and software sales will have to grow a hell of a lot year over year

Also, the problem with your extrapolation was that you seemed to imply that a 45% share of total revenues was on the high end, but in reality, network sales make up a larger part in non holiday quarters than in the holiday quarter, exactly because of less seasonable variablity.



GProgrammer on 02 February 2018
Intrinsic said:
GProgrammer said:
Nintendo 483 billion yen revenue 116 billion profit Sony 2672 billion yen revenue 350 billion profit Seems like Nintendo is nearly twice as profitable per dollar revenue than Sony is. Sony needs to start charging more to catch up

I don't know where you got those numbers from..... the real numbers are more like this.

 

Isn't it obvious where I'm getting those numbers from?

Hint this thread is called 'SONY Q3 Earnings Report'

I'm getting the Sony numbers from that quarter report and the Nintendo Numbers are from Nintendo's latest Quarter report



Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

Okay, but just so I've made myself understood, every reference to Q1, Q2 etc. in this post is in reference to calendar quarters.

If we take Playstation's network revenue if Q1-Q3 2017, and apply a 35% growth rate, that gives us about 850 billion for Q1-Q3 2018. Nintendo has forecast 160 billion yen revenue in Q1 2018. So Nintendo needs to make 690 billion yen in revenue in Q2 and 3 to be equal. In Q2+Q3 2017, they made 374 billion. As far as I can find, Nintendo has only had more than 690 billion yen for Q2+Q3 twice - in 2008 (837 billion yen) and in 2007 (694 billion yen).

From april to september in 2008, Nintendo shipped a total of 24 million hardware units. That's in 6 months, and without the holidays. In the same timeframe in 2017, they "only" shipped 22 million.

Yeah, those hardware and software sales will have to grow a hell of a lot year over year

Also, the problem with your extrapolation was that you seemed to imply that a 45% share of total revenues was on the high end, but in reality, network sales make up a larger part in non holiday quarters than in the holiday quarter, exactly because of less seasonable variablity.

Yes, Nintendo's revenue will have to grow a lot year over year. I won't make any definitive call here because Nintendo has yet to reveal which games they'll release in the four months spanning June-September.

The reason why I called the 45% generous is because in fiscal Q3 the actual percentage was only slightly above 42%.

I think the only thing that could make Nintendo reach the heights you are suggesting would be if the mobile Mario Kart game releases in that period and is a success on the level of Pokemon Go. Other than that, I really don't see how they can match the height of the WiiDS era.



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ZODIARKrebirth on 02 February 2018

really good numbers for sony, but seems sony hoped god of war would release before march, 31



quickrick on 02 February 2018
zorg1000 said:

Kinda interesting that PS4 has outshipped Switch in each of the 3 quarters this fiscal year but based on both companies projections, Switch will outship PS4 this quarter.

Q1 PS4-3.3 million NSW-1.96 million

Q2 PS4-4.2 million NSW-2.93 million

Q3 PS4-9.0 million NSW-7.23 million

Q4 Projections PS4-2.5 million NSW-2.87 million

well if there is only 1.5 million on store shelves , like some people say vs 2.9 million for ps4, seems like it will be much easier for switch, although i think its more like 2 million vs 2.9 million.



Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

I think the only thing that could make Nintendo reach the heights you are suggesting would be if the mobile Mario Kart game releases in that period and is a success on the level of Pokemon Go. Other than that, I really don't see how they can match the height of the WiiDS era.

Well, the assumption that PSN's growth rate remains stable pushes up the bar that Nintendo needs to overcome.

I did use a lowered growth rate of 35% instead of the 40% it showed in 2017 (or 42, depending on the period you're looking at). But even using a 25% growth rate would still require one of the best periods in Nintendo history, at 625 billion yen for Q2+Q3.

Last edited by Teeqoz - on 02 February 2018

KazumaKiryu on 02 February 2018
quickrick said:
Sony shipped 9 million, totaling 76.5 million LTD.

Awesome! Good job, Sony.



KazumaKiryu on 04 February 2018
ZODIARKrebirth said:
really good numbers for sony, but seems sony hoped god of war would release before march, 31

God of War will be released worldwide at the end of april.