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Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
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RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

Just to be clear, I'm talking about calendar quarters. So when I say Q1-Q3, I mean jan-sep. And I'm talking about 2018.

Playstation Network revenue in jan-sep can certainly reach 900 billion yen btw, though it will be a bit tough. Jan-sep 2017 was already at 628 billion (apr-dec was at 718, no idea where you got your extrapolation from haha), and network revenue has been growing at about 40% annually.

I think you misunderstood me, I was making a prediction about jan-sep 2018, not a statement about apr-dec 2017.

Yes, I understood your post as April-December 2017.

I got the extrapolation from using already available figures in this thread (I didn't want to sift through Sony's financial results to find the actual figures) and the extrapolation was sufficient to make my point that PSN revenue does not exceed Nintendo's total revenue in the timeframe April-December 2017.

As for January-September 2018 which you actually meant, I still doubt it. Nintendo's revenue has experienced a large surge and hardware and software sales for Switch are only going to grow year over year.

Okay, but just so I've made myself understood, every reference to Q1, Q2 etc. in this post is in reference to calendar quarters.

If we take Playstation's network revenue if Q1-Q3 2017, and apply a 35% growth rate, that gives us about 850 billion for Q1-Q3 2018. Nintendo has forecast 160 billion yen revenue in Q1 2018. So Nintendo needs to make 690 billion yen in revenue in Q2 and 3 to be equal. In Q2+Q3 2017, they made 374 billion. As far as I can find, Nintendo has only had more than 690 billion yen for Q2+Q3 twice - in 2008 (837 billion yen) and in 2007 (694 billion yen).

From april to september in 2008, Nintendo shipped a total of 24 million hardware units. That's in 6 months, and without the holidays. In the same timeframe in 2017, they "only" shipped 22 million.

Yeah, those hardware and software sales will have to grow a hell of a lot year over year

Also, the problem with your extrapolation was that you seemed to imply that a 45% share of total revenues was on the high end, but in reality, network sales make up a larger part in non holiday quarters than in the holiday quarter, exactly because of less seasonable variablity.