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Teeqoz on 02 February 2018
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RolStoppable said:
Teeqoz said:

Okay, but just so I've made myself understood, every reference to Q1, Q2 etc. in this post is in reference to calendar quarters.

If we take Playstation's network revenue if Q1-Q3 2017, and apply a 35% growth rate, that gives us about 850 billion for Q1-Q3 2018. Nintendo has forecast 160 billion yen revenue in Q1 2018. So Nintendo needs to make 690 billion yen in revenue in Q2 and 3 to be equal. In Q2+Q3 2017, they made 374 billion. As far as I can find, Nintendo has only had more than 690 billion yen for Q2+Q3 twice - in 2008 (837 billion yen) and in 2007 (694 billion yen).

From april to september in 2008, Nintendo shipped a total of 24 million hardware units. That's in 6 months, and without the holidays. In the same timeframe in 2017, they "only" shipped 22 million.

Yeah, those hardware and software sales will have to grow a hell of a lot year over year

Also, the problem with your extrapolation was that you seemed to imply that a 45% share of total revenues was on the high end, but in reality, network sales make up a larger part in non holiday quarters than in the holiday quarter, exactly because of less seasonable variablity.

Yes, Nintendo's revenue will have to grow a lot year over year. I won't make any definitive call here because Nintendo has yet to reveal which games they'll release in the four months spanning June-September.

The reason why I called the 45% generous is because in fiscal Q3 the actual percentage was only slightly above 42%.

I think the only thing that could make Nintendo reach the heights you are suggesting would be if the mobile Mario Kart game releases in that period and is a success on the level of Pokemon Go. Other than that, I really don't see how they can match the height of the WiiDS era.