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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Hypothetical: Nintendo 10 Year Plan 2017-2027

trent44 said:

I was writing a response to this thread about Kimishima remarking that the Nintendo Switch’s life will be longer than Nintendo’s usual cycle:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234567

And, it ended up a bit long winded in response, so I decided to make this its own thread, in discussing what Nintendo’s hypothetical 10 year plan may look like.

 

Early 2017 - Mid 2019:

 

Nintendo will continue to pay lip service to 3DS, as they quietly ship less 3DSs and 3DS games each year, and continue to ramp up Nintendo Switch production.

With new Pokemon now only coming to the Nintendo Switch, the writing is on the wall for the 3DS, but Nintendo will still happily say a few nice words about the 3DS and continue their low effort extra money printing.



Pokemon Switch, along with high quality Wii U ports (Super Smash Bros DX in 2018, etc.), and a few larger 3rd party games will help sustain the Nintendo Switch’s momentum into 2019.

 

Late 2019 - Mid 2022:

 

Late 2019 is when more original 3rd party titles will be hitting the Nintendo Switch giving it a needed boost as momentum just begins to falter. Nintendo will continue to drop marquee titles less frequently, while preparing a large second wave of first party Nintendo Switch titles for a second wind boost.

Having bought this much time is a win win for Nintendo, as they prepare a new shot in the arm for Nintendo Switch, having used this time to get production costs down on a Nintendo Switch Mini launching for $199.99 MSRP in late 2019, while still keeping the OG Nintendo Switch at $299.99 with a pack-in game (they will want to keep this price point occupied for a smidge longer), and they will also drop the New Nintendo 2DS to $99.99 and the regular 2DS to $49.99 at this same time as well.

Hitting these 4 key price points simultaneously, they will literally swim in success.



During 2020 Nintendo will give another great boost to the Nintendo Switch family, introducing the Nintendo Switch XL, which will feature the same physical dimensions as the OG Nintendo Switch, but will have some key luxuries, such as a major reduction to the bezel, allowing for a much larger screen with the same sized joycon, and a much longer battery life thanks to a much more efficient Tegra chip.

The Nintendo Switch XL will be $299.99 MSRP, the OG Nintendo Switch will drop to $249.99 without a pack-in game, and the Nintendo Switch Mini will remain $199.99 for a bit longer.

In 2021 the Nintendo Switch Mini will drop to $149.99 and the OG Nintendo Switch will drop to $229.99 and the entire 3DS line will no longer be produced just as it hits its 10th birthday.

At this point, Nintendo will be confident enough to have $149.99 as their budget entry with a massive library of games and peripherals to up-sell to newcomers.

In 2022, the big wave of new first party games that Nintendo has been saving up for this year hits shelves month after month (faster than even 2017s pace) to keep things going, and to also really capitalize on a gigantic user base allowing for a huge software sales year.

 

Late 2022 - 2027:

 

Late 2022 is where Nintendo gets a little creative to keep hardware moving, they extend the Nintendo Switch Family of devices even further, offering home console only and handheld console only models (to really cut costs) to hit a niche at an even lower price point. Launching the Nintendo Switch Boy, Nintendo Switch Girl, and Nintendo Switch TV each retailing for $99.99 MSRP



2023 Sees the launch of Nintendo Switch SP and Nintendo Switch GO for $129.99 each for collectors, and people who enjoy the novelty and niche of clamshell and slider handheld consoles.

2025 is when the Nintendo Switch 2 launches as the original Nintendo Switch Family is twilighted for the next few years. This successor will be fully backwards compatible, but Nintendo will keep the budget low price Nintendo Switches around for a few years for cheaper entries, doing price cuts where matured production cost saving allows.

The Nintendo Switch 2 would be akin to what the 3DS was to the DS, or what GBA was to GBC as far as similarities as a successor and backwards compatibility.

Nintendo switch 2, being the futuristic Hybrid console, having more processing power, with a truly unique feature (assuming the technology advanced enough in that time) Portable HD projector mode for gaming with friends and Hologram Projector mode for mixed reality gaming i.e. using player pieces (such as room scale tracking Amiibo 2.0) with a full hologram board (environmental full volume holograms projected into physical space).



So, What do you all think of this 10 year plan?

How many of these points do you think Nintendo will hit over the next 10 years?

What is your vision of how Nintendo’s next 10 years may play out?

I like all of them except the Switch Go, no ma'am 



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Rumors have begun about a Nintendo Switch revision for late 2019....

https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJJapan/status/1047707384955768834



God I hope not. Next gen can't come soon enough.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
I'm down with what the OP is saying in a very general way (i.e. the specific details may play out somewhat differently). The main thing I would disagree with is a 2025 date for the Switch's successor. I think it will likely be 2023. When Kimishima says they'll support the Switch for 10 years, that doesn't mean they'll have a later release date for Switch's successor. It means that they want to keep Switch going as a lower end system, so that they can still make money on it. Sony kept shipping PS2's out until 2013. That is more what Kimishima means. They want to keep supporting Switch just like Sony supported PS2. Besides, a company makes a lot higher profit margins on a console's tail end. All of the costs are lower.

Yes, this. This is exactly what I think about this statement. They will keep the Switch 1 as cheap option like they are keeping the 3DS currently. I can even see a successor as early as 2021, or more likely 2022, depending on how well the Switch sells after the next gen for the other companies starts.

Nautilus said:
Nintendo wont break the hybrid concept and sell only handheld or home consoles Switches.

And this here is the big point why most of the OP is not working. Currently we already have quite a lot of games that wouldn't work without detachable Joycons and a few that wouldn't work without the handheld mode. And this is without even considering Labo.

Think about it: a family thinks Go Vacation looks like a nice game. And hey, I get the base system for 100 bucks. Let's do that! Now they come home to realize they can't play Go Vacation, because the Joycons are integrated in the tablet in their version of Switch. They have to drop another 70 bucks for a pair of Joycons. Nintendo will not make this happening.

As XD84 is pointing out, Labo also fixes the size of the Switch tablet and the size of the Joycons. Currently Labo sits at 850K in VGC-tracking, without the third kit. So it will have around a million before the holidays. I think Labos future depends a bit on it's legs, so it should sell at least 300-400K over the holidays to be considered successful. But if it does that and Nintendo keeps on releasing new Labo kits, then I can't see Nintendo breaking compatibility with it.

 

So that leaves us with same base concept. But instead of reducing gameplay options with more models, Nintendo could expanding on it. That is in line with earlier consoles. DS had the DSi which added a camera. For Switch I could think of a dock that upscales to 4K, different controller options that fit into the Joycons slots (like the NES-controllers), a VR kit probably with a dock with additional hardware to add the processing power to keep things crisp in VR, 4G-support for the Switch tablet (and integrating the phone app in this version into the base Switch, so voice chat).



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Asriel said:
It makes zero sense to remove the modular nature of Switch. It's quite clearly essential to Nintendo's vision of the machine - that's why Labo is happening.

Exactly. It wouldn't be Switch without "switching". Whatever they'll do, the form factor / idea will stay the same.



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Kristof81 said:
Asriel said:
It makes zero sense to remove the modular nature of Switch. It's quite clearly essential to Nintendo's vision of the machine - that's why Labo is happening.

Exactly. It wouldn't be Switch without "switching". Whatever they'll do, the form factor / idea will stay the same.

That's my biggest worry when it comes to anyone's idea about a handheld or more powerful Switch. The Joy Cons, whether you like them or not, are an integral part of the Switch's identity. When you saw the first teaser of the console, you heard the clicking sound, which was made possible by the Joy Cons. It may sound like a dumb reason, but that's part of the Switch's marketing persona. When you hear that sound, you know its about the Nintendo Switch. Plus, the Joy Cons are what makes the Switch a versatile console. You can play multiplayer off the bat, play it on handheld mode, or attach it to the Joy Con grip and play on the TV. Plus, the various features such as HD rumble, IR pointer, NFC reader, and motion controls add to the capabilities of the Switch.

I know some don't like the Joy Cons, but you can't just simply replace them for the next iteration of the Switch. Various games utilize the features of the Joy Cons and to just put them aside could affect how those particular games are played. Whether its Labo, 1-2 Switch, Super Mario Party, Splatoon 2, ARMS, and the upcoming Pokemon Let's Go games, there are games out there on Switch that utilize the Joy Con features.



Some very bad form factors to play on those shots. But yes it's possible that they will double their gen with some different models.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

About crazy designs, I though about one that would be the complete portable version of switch.
Switch, by definition, have to change the way you play, so a portable only version would not have this feature in the name definition.

So, I thought in a device that merges switch, 3DS and mobile, where you can switch between the modes. So, you have the switch between modes to keep the definition of the name of the console.

Is a sliding screen (like your switch go), but there is a screen in the part below, and it would have a 3DS cartridge slot and play 3DS games in this mode.

Then you could detach the controllers (mini joycons) and put in the top screen and slide the below screen, and then you can play switch games.

If you close it with controllers in the below screen, you play the mobile mode, where all nintendo mobile games are there playable.



...So, Nintendo Switch Lite is in FACT launching late 2019 for $199; and they called it a new addition to the Family.


Maybe a Nintendo Switch with a larger screen in 2020 could happen afterall.

:P

Last edited by trent44 - on 10 July 2019

Larger Screen Nintendo Switch is finally happening. A year late, but a lot of stuff did get delayed...

Will be interesting to see how much more of this old prediction will play out.

I think a VitaTV-like Nintendo Switch is the most likely next model, and software for 2022 is looking decent as well.