Well, what one person has seen can differ from what someone else has seen. Unless one has seen and noted all relevant data, and formed a study on the subject, etc.
But you have to be able to apply logic to your reasoning. And what logical reasoning could there be for a higher digital ratio for games that "only" sell 100k in its first month?
|An explanation could be that they ended shipments quickly as the games aren't selling that much anymore, so instead of ordering through the store they just decide to buy it digitally. Lower selling games also have smaller file sizes in general so they are easier to download.
Over a longer period of time, games being out of stock could definitely affect it. Same thing for greatly discounted PS+ deals. File size could also be a factor.
But we're specifically focusing on early shorter periods like opening week, or opening month. Tekken 7 did not suffer from supply shortages during it's first month. And yet out of 100k people, 21,5% chose to buy it digital. There were no digital sales at that early stage, or shortages. And Tekken 7's file size is actually a whooping 45GB for PS4: https://www.psu.com/news/tekken-7-ps4-file-size-is-a-shocker/
I mean their aren't many PS4 games that have sold over 500k, checking all of them is a cinch. Minecraft is probably 1 that has a high ratio, but Minecraft is the exception. I admit that smaller games have high variance in digital ratios, but I still think bigger games don't have good digital ratios.
Even for smaller games we haven't seen many 30% digital ratios, if I could get a few examples of that I would be more liable to be convinced.
Well there's really no conceivable correlation between high or low FW/FM sales and digital ratio. If a game has a high digital ratio, it's because of the factors we mentioned, like availability, or convenience, etc.
Here's an anecdotal story though. Even though I decided to get a physical copy of MHW, because some of my friends already got it and started playing, I had second thoughts about it to the point where I delayed my order for a couple of days because I didn't know if I wanted to wait 5+ days for Amazon to ship it to me, when I could download it and start playing with my friends right away. Why the rush? Well, unlike something like a fighting game, in Monster Hunter you progress with things like levels and craftable and upgradable equipment. I don't think it's going to be particularly fun going on hunts with my friends if they're significantly more powerful than the boss I'm currently facing, and already have the best gear. That's what I was considering at least.
But something Noobie mentioned above:
Last edited by Hiku - on 01 February 2018
"With capcom saying they have 30% digital sales worldwide and 40% of the shipped and digital sales are from Japan"
If this is accurate, just about every third person who bought the game, bought it digitally.
This means that in some areas, the ratio was below 30%. And in some areas it must have been higher than 30%.
Areas where the game was in short supply would be more likely to be on that higher end of the spectrum.
I don't know if 32,5% is unprecedented for an opening week, but I think if Tekken did what it did without shortages, I wouldn't be shocked if MHW did more with a 95% sell through rate.
However, I don't know how off Famitsu tend to be with their estimates. But this seems to fall in line with Capcom's statement.