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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Worldwide Xbox One sales dropped below Xbox 360 in 2017

yvanjean said:

First PUBG & Sea of Thieves is going to boost sales in Q1, Last year the only major release was Halo Wars 2.
4k gaming on Xbox one X
Exclusives 2017 vs 2018 
Game pass announcement
Holiday 2018 vs 2017 (expect price drop & bundle on Xbox one X and Xbox one S for <$199.99)

XB1 2017 release XB1 2018 Release
Halo Wars 2  Sea of Thieves
Cup head  Crack down 3
Tacoma State of Decay 2
Forza 7  Forza Horizon 3
Super Lucky Tails Ori & The will of the Wisps
  Ashen
  Below
  Last night
  Deep Rock Galatic

That's only what we know about, Microsoft could have further surprise for 2018 at E3. 

Let's take a close look...

A. 4K Gaming won't mean much of anything
B. Sea of Thieves, while I expect it be good, still is an unproven IP (and also on PC)
C. I don't expect Game Pass to be a system seller, but maybe

So far, that looks like a good list of things, but I'm not sure that will be enough to be up 1.5m this year.



                                                                                                                                                           

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foodfather said:
Everone knows its not as popular as the 360. Is there going to be one of these threads every month then?

Did you reminded Phil Specter and team of this fact when they kept saying X1 was the fastest Xbox ever or that it was outselling X360?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

foodfather said:
Everone knows its not as popular as the 360. Is there going to be one of these threads every month then?

This is literally false. It's been said, and agreed with by even non - xbox fans that the One's biggest claim to fame was that it was still tracking ahead of the 360. I remember that. Now it's not true. The only reason it seemed "less popular" than the 360 already was because the 360 was very successful as a competitor to the PS3, and perhaps subconsciously also because the 360 had such a long life span that it ended up with monolith sales 



Link to the VGChartz Discord server: https://discord.gg/2uMTaYtv

Someday you will die somehow 

And something's gonna steal your carbon 

scrapking said:
foodfather said:
Everone knows its not as popular as the 360. Is there going to be one of these threads every month then?

I'm not sure that's true.  Given the huge number of dead 360s by this point in its lifespan (many people bought new slim 360 bundles to replace their old units, that were either finally out of even the three year warranty or because of a lack of trust in the replacement units people were getting), I'm not sure there aren't as many active/working Xbox One units as there were 360 units.  I see the PS4's greater popularity as a result of Sony having captured a good chunk of console sales that were going to the Wii this time last-gen, with the Xbox One holding steady.  It's hard to deny that the RRoD inflated 360 sales.  How many people this far in were still using their first-gen 360 units in the previous gen?  Almost no one.  Lots of people are still using first-gen Xbox One units.  That at least mitigates, if not entirely compensates for, the sales difference in unit numbers.  It's not a surprise to me that Xbox Live engagement is at record highs.  It's because most of the Xbox One units still work, something that couldn't be said for most of the Xbox 360 units last generation.

Sorry to burst your bubble but by what Yoshida said on the first years of PS4 there is a lot of ex-X360 users that bought PS4 and very little Wii (which had a demography that mostly didn't buy before Wii and didn't buy after Wii). So Xbox lost a lot of users, but their XBL held somewhat stable.

yvanjean said:
CGI-Quality said:

You still didn’t answer my question. Who shows Xbox’s numbers? Of course Amazon positions are guesses. That wasn’t up for debate. That’s what you and I are doing. Guessing. For Xbox One, that’s all you can do.

As for the bundles, they won’t be up 1.5m this year, regardless of those.

VGchartz and NPD hence why we're here .... ya it''s way too early to know what's going on. I'm waiting on January data... if XB1 is up year over year it's a good sign of what will happen. If the numbers are flat or lower Year to year it's extremely bad for XB1, I don't see how the numbers could be down. 

You are the one that mention Amazon .... people keep comparing Amazon but it's such a bad matrix to compare Ps4 to Xbox one... because you have all the Xbox one bundles vs Sony that only has a four normally ... 

Nope it isn't to early, we have 4 years of X1 data, we have 2 months of X1X data, we have 30 years of console data.... hardly any game move a lot of HW, there is like 1 or 2 games per gen that do it. And if PUBG is already at 4M and didn't moved much consoles on its first 2 months there is zero reason to think it will on the next 3.

You are setting yourself to disapointment by expecting sales to climb from 8 to 13M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

JRPGfan said:
foodfather said:
Everone knows its not as popular as the 360. Is there going to be one of these threads every month then?

I know its not a exact number, but knowing with certainty its under X amount, can still be usefull right?

Esp considering how close vgcz is to that max number.

This also confirms that vgcz isnt undertracking the Xbox One, if anything it might be abit overtracking.
These are good things to know, being accurate (vgcz) is a good thing.

How do we know with 100% certainty that it's tracking below 360?
Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?



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Hiku said:
JRPGfan said:

I know its not a exact number, but knowing with certainty its under X amount, can still be usefull right?

Esp considering how close vgcz is to that max number.

This also confirms that vgcz isnt undertracking the Xbox One, if anything it might be abit overtracking.
These are good things to know, being accurate (vgcz) is a good thing.

How do we know with 100% certainty that it's tracking below 360?
Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?

MS haven't reported X1 sales in like 2+ years, so what are you talking about?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Hiku said:
JRPGfan said:

I know its not a exact number, but knowing with certainty its under X amount, can still be usefull right?

Esp considering how close vgcz is to that max number.

This also confirms that vgcz isnt undertracking the Xbox One, if anything it might be abit overtracking.
These are good things to know, being accurate (vgcz) is a good thing.

How do we know with 100% certainty that it's tracking below 360?
Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?

Because sources with insider information said so?

"Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?"

Why would they? thats bad PR, instead they  ll mention how many hours of gameplay this year had, how many bullets where fired in this and that game ect.



JRPGfan said:
Hiku said:

How do we know with 100% certainty that it's tracking below 360?
Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?

Because sources with insider information said so?

"Did Microsoft state that sales are down YoY two years in a row?"

Why would they? thats bad PR, instead they  ll mention how many hours of gameplay this year had, how many bullets where fired in this and that game ect.

It's obvious that when you report MAUs is because you are breaking sales records.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I guess this means subtracting PS4's sold-through numbers from EA's estimates is not the way to go (in fact, it's a terrible way to pinpoint the XB1's WW sales) and confirms that both companies use different methodologies to arrive at their numbers.

I think the best way to narrow down the XB1's WW sales is to go with a US percentage range to come up with a ballpark estimate. We don't know if the US:WW ratio has largely remained static, shifted in favor to the US, or shifted in favor WW (though I think the third scenario is the least likely). Let's say the US makes up between 55% to 60%. Extrapolating from the approximately 20.12m US sales from NPD, the XB1's WW sales fall somewhere between 33.53m to 36.58m.

EDIT: I noticed there is one big flaw to my WW sales range methodology. The higher the US LTD, the larger the WW sales range. Eventually, this way of estimating the XB1's total sales will be rendered useless.

Last edited by Aura7541 - on 25 January 2018

Aura7541 said:

I guess this means subtracting PS4's sold-through numbers from EA's estimates is not the way to go (in fact, it's a terrible way to pinpoint the XB1's WW sales) and confirms that both companies use different methodologies to arrive at their numbers.

I think the best way to narrow down the XB1's WW sales is to go with a US percentage range to come up with a ballpark estimate. We don't know if the US:WW ratio has largely remained static, shifted in favor to the US, or shifted in favor WW (though I think the third scenario is the least likely). Let's say the US makes up between 55% to 60%. Extrapolating from the approximately 20.12m US sales from NPD, the XB1's WW sales fall somewhere between 33.53m to 36.58m.

That hardly anyone can dispute or deny since MS won't reveal any number.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."