I believe phil Spencer about xbox one sales, not these so called insiders. Also vgchartz sales has never been right concerning xbox numbers , even during xbox 360 days. They were always off every time, I believe xbox one numbers are at 38 million or above that figure. Anyways I'll always trust phil over some biased so called insider.
Zhuge isn't just some "biased so called insider". He's been right a number of times regarding console sales. No reason to doubt him, regardless if we like the result or not. He has nothing to gain by low-balling Xbox figures.
Next, for Xbox One to be up, it's going to take more than a Premium console. Read very closely what Shadow said. The necessary percentages just aren't going to be met.