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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst: Switch may have sold 7m units globally during Oct-Dec, bringing LTD sales at more than 14.6m

Alkibiádēs said:
Barkley said:

I'm pretty sure it's referring to the "Nintendo Expects to Ship 16.7m units by March 31st" or whatever. So he means WILL outsell in 12 months. It is however just another terrible post/thread by gentii.


Please post official figures that the Vita almost sold 16M.

 

it should be around 19m. vgchartz undertrack vita



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Probably shipped not sold trough, unless Nintendo had 3 weeks above 1.4 million



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Barkley said:
Lucas-Rio said:
We all knew that this VGchartz number (11.9) was ridiculously low.

The VGC Figure says Nintendo sold almost 2m units in 2 weeks, if VGC is "ridiculously low" then Nintendo is under reporting their figures.

Nintendo - As of December 10th, worldwide life-to-date sell-through for Nintendo Switch has surpassed 10 million units.

VGC - 11.9m as of December 23rd.

 

Nintendo released a statement but they never said that they sold 10 millions as of "10th December". They released a statement the 12th December saying that they had sold "over 10 millions", but never say when, it could have been 1st december or even before.

https://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/detail/nintendo-switch-sells-10-million-worldwide

On December alone Nintendo is likely to have sold around 4 millions Wordlwide.



Analist are Analist so you need to be DrSwitch



takoyaki7 said:

That number is probably shipments.
販売,Sales→Shipments 実売,Actualsales→Sales


I made a prediction using the results of NPD and Famitsu.
NS sales US+JP(NPD+Famitsu)
Q1 1.43million Total
Q2 1.15million 2.58million
Q3 1.47million 4.05million
Q4 4.24million 8.29million

NS shipped
Q1 2.74million Total
Q2 1.96million 4.70million
Q3 2.93million 7.63million

Calculate every quarter
170%〜199% Q4 7.20〜8.43million
I predict that Nintendo shipped a total of 14.83〜16.06 million units by the end of December.

Yes. This analysts predictions or estimates seems to be in line with shipment numbers. There is typically a 1-1.5 million discrepancy between the number of units sold and the number of units shipped. So assuming Switch's LTD sell through is 12.5-13 million, then your numbers (and in addition, this analyst's numbers) would be right on the mark.

Darwinianevolution said:
With all of this news of wonderful Switch sales, I want Nintendo to come forward and actually announce the amount sold. They are doing great, why not confirm it?

January 31st's financial release and investors meeting should give us some PR and, more importantly, some insight into last year's sales. Hopefully, they will provide enough information about both last year and their general plans for the upcoming year, so that we can see more reasonable predictions (I am sort of getting tired of the extreme "system will fall off a cliff and dramatically fail" or "system will soar above the Skys and be the most successful thing ever" narratives that we are seeing on here as of late without much actual information from Nintendo to go on . 

Barkley said:
Matsku said:
The Vita has sold (according to VG charts) almost 16 mil units worldwide so not yet.

I'm pretty sure it's referring to the "Nintendo Expects to Ship 16.7m units by March 31st" or whatever. So he means WILL outsell in 12 months. It is however just another terrible post/thread by gentii.


Yes I second this. I have not seen much else from the OP, but I do not see how this particular thread or its title are accurate.

I feel it would be better to get this type of thread once we have confirmation from Nintendo or at least have the sell-through information from VGC. Either way, assuming this strong momentum continues, we are still a few months away from Switch outselling the Vita's LTD sell through. More specifically, should Nintendo reach their shipment prediction of 16.78 million units by the end of March then we should probably hit Vita sell through LTD by April-June (again the exact month will depend on momentum).

Last edited by nemo37 - on 21 January 2018

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Lucas-Rio said:
Barkley said:

The VGC Figure says Nintendo sold almost 2m units in 2 weeks, if VGC is "ridiculously low" then Nintendo is under reporting their figures.

Nintendo - As of December 10th, worldwide life-to-date sell-through for Nintendo Switch has surpassed 10 million units.

VGC - 11.9m as of December 23rd.

 

Nintendo released a statement but they never said that they sold 10 millions as of "10th December". They released a statement the 12th December saying that they had sold "over 10 millions", but never say when, it could have been 1st december or even before.

https://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/detail/nintendo-switch-sells-10-million-worldwide

On December alone Nintendo is likely to have sold around 4 millions Wordlwide.

You must have missed the link I gave in my post to the official corporate release on Nintendo's Site.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2017/171212.html

Word for Word from Nintendo themselves. As of December 10th, worldwide life-to-date sell-through for Nintendo Switch, which launched on March 3, 2017, has surpassed 10 million units *.



Barkley said:
Alkibiádēs said:

Please post official figures that the Vita almost sold 16M.

We don't have official figures, so take the estimates we do have, stop trying to argue all the time.

What estimates? We have nothing.

Vgchartz constantly has to correct its numbers after official figures have come out (NPD, Media Create, financial reports of companies themselves, etc.), but those official figures do not exist for the Vita. 

Hence the Vita numbers on Vgchartz are practically worthless. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

Barkley said:
Lucas-Rio said:

 

Nintendo released a statement but they never said that they sold 10 millions as of "10th December". They released a statement the 12th December saying that they had sold "over 10 millions", but never say when, it could have been 1st december or even before.

https://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/detail/nintendo-switch-sells-10-million-worldwide

On December alone Nintendo is likely to have sold around 4 millions Wordlwide.

You must have missed the link I gave in my post to the official corporate release on Nintendo's Site.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2017/171212.html

Word for Word from Nintendo themselves. As of December 10th, worldwide life-to-date sell-through for Nintendo Switch, which launched on March 3, 2017, has surpassed 10 million units *.

So Surpassed does not mean 10.00, it could easily be 10.5 or more.

From 10 December to now,  Nintendo already sold more than 800 000 switch In Japan. Worldwide the Switch must be over 13 millions easily. VGchartz numbers are wrong, deal with it



Alkibiádēs said:
Barkley said:

We don't have official figures, so take the estimates we do have, stop trying to argue all the time.

What estimates? We have nothing.

So you're saying VGC's figures aren't even estimates now? Congratulations you're furthering your reputation of being the most difficult user on VGC to have a conversation with.



Barkley said:
Alkibiádēs said:

What estimates? We have nothing.

So you're saying VGC's figures aren't even estimates now? Congratulations you're furthering your reputation of being the most difficult user on VGC to have a conversation with.

Not for the Vita, no. 

Estimates are based on something. It's well known Vgchartz alters its figures after reports from NPD, Media Create / Famitsu, financial reports of companies, etc. 

For Vita we only have Media Create. The numbers are guess-work, not estimates. It wouldn't surprise me if it's severely over-tracked in Europe in particular. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides