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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2007 NPD Predictions

Stromprophet said: The Wii will do fine in Japan, just like DS. It will probably stay really popular. A little less in Europe due to Sony having a strong Playstation brand there. But in the US, where HD certainly matters more and more to consumers, I see the wii being a novelty.
All I can say is "wait and see." Wait and see how important HD is compared to having the biggest selection and variety of games.
I just don't see the juggernaut support of games like Resident Evil, Grand Theft Auto, Unreal Tournament, or any other graphically intense game. That's a big big pie to miss out on. Sure, arcade games are great, but they have to expand beyond Zelda, Mario, Smash Brothers, Metroid.
They **are** expanding beyond those games. Animal Crossing, Brain games and Wii-branded titles are each several times more important that Metroid, and yet folks always mention Metroid as one of the biggest upcoming titles. And Metroid is still far bigger than Unreal Tournament...!
I have seen many, many articles on people programming really sloppy on the Wii when they could make good looking games. Remember how good Resident Evil looked on the Gamecube? It was THE best looking graphical game last generation.
Nintendo's "gameplay over graphics" PR has stalled the graphical arms race on Wii. But it will come. The poor graphics have been a total non-issue so far, obviously.
I just don't see the staying power. Both the 360 and PS3 will last longer as systems. They are just built to live longer, the Wii doesn't have much processing power in a video game world where advanced realistic physics are becoming very important to gameplay.
The longest lasting systems of all time (Atari 2600, NES and PS1--all stayed in production longer than 10 years), were less powerful than their competitors. And so far "advanced realistic physics" have not proven to have any importance...



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

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I just don't see the staying power
If Nintendo is successful at wooing new customers via the gimmick waggle that you speak of, HD doesnt really matter anymore. Once the install base is there, and once developers follow, all this talks about losing steam and having no staying power is nonsense. No console in the history of videogaming, after establishing itself and grinding competitors for quite a bit of time, had been toppled down from being top dog, ever.



Wii_gamer said: Close of play on Thursday, although we should have an early preview...
As it is already closed...Thrusday huh. Anyway, I will keep track of my own estimates. And like I said before, the prediction leagues should be seperate, Japan and America. There is way too much variability in the users predicting Japanese numbers and it would not reflect any sort of actual predicting. Mainly because most of the users here would have very little feel as to the gauge of Japanese sales on a weekly basis. DS - 350k PS2 - 220k 360 - 275k PSP - 130k GBA - 85k Wii - 535k PS3 - 300k Gears of War - 250k Guitar Hero 2 - 150k Madden NFL 07 (PS2) - 108.8k Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess (GCN) - 85k Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess (Wii) - 258.4k WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2007 (PS2) - 58k New Super Mario Bros - (DS) - 75k Call of Duty 3 (360) - 65.5k Yoshi Island 2 (DS) - 70k Call of Duty 3 (PS2) - 58.2k Lost Planet - 750k Resistance Fall of Man - 112.2k



Data should be out in within six hours or so...Post comments here



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said: Data should be out in within six hours or so...Post comments here
Rumor is it's delayed until next tuesday.. :(



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Really? Where does it say that? Why would it be delayed? Is it because the data include some of Feburary...?



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said: Really? Where does it say that? Why would it be delayed? Is it because the data include some of Feburary...?
NeoGAF, but who knows.. It's almost time....



No one at Neogaf can tell if the people are kidding or not.. I don't know why the data would be delayed further. Even if the data collection period ends Feb 3, it is still two thursday's after that period ended.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

When the numbers come out Tuesday, I think we should compare bunkum's data to the real data to see whether his 'insider' data is better than Patcher and company... Patcher: Bunkum: NPD: VGCharts Americas (current-end 2006) Wii 500k 431.5k ? 462k PS3 300k 288.6k ? 280k 360 Unknown 217.7k ? 335k http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38761 Bunkum's data is linked above. This can also be used to see how Patcher would perform in a simplified version of the prediction league



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Can we re-open the prediction league for NPD january? Since they are delayed. Maybe we could have a better notice next time when the closing date for prediction will be?