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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2007 NPD Predictions

5 million 360s in Japan? Are you high, they have not sold 350k yet. Yeah right. Anyway, anyone know when NPD reports this month.



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Close of play on Thursday, although we should have an early preview...



Stromprophet said: 5 million 360s in Japan? Are you high, they have not sold 350k yet. Yeah right. Anyway, anyone know when NPD reports this month.
it's kind of confusing but he wrote 5 million PS3's and 1 Million 360's. Take a second look



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

I still don't subscribe to the whole even split thing at end of life. It will be one of the three that will be dominant and the winner will be at least 50 million units ahead than the second placer. Developers are not stupid. Once the critical mass has been reached in developer support, it will snowball from there, or lest they risk being gobbled up and bought by the competition. Sure, Capcom could continue on supporting one of the underdogs but they will be the exception rather than the rule. The 360 will at best play for second just because of the shortage of Japanese developer support. I dont even wanna hear about the arguments about the importance of Japan but fact of the matter is, alot of game and influences comes from that country and I don't see that changing this generation. Maybe in the next one. The 360 will not bomb horrendously like the XBOX, however. Only the Wii and the PS3 has the luxury of ending up in first and it could go either way but preliminary results point to the Wii. However, I do acknowledge that alot can change in the next 6-12 months. Whoever comes out on top this generation will be decided in that time frame.



NPD - This Thursday. I did mean PS3 at 5 million and 360 at 1 million



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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ranzchic said: I still don't subscribe to the whole even split thing at end of life. It will be one of the three that will be dominant and the winner will be at least 50 million units ahead than the second placer. Developers are not stupid. Once the critical mass has been reached in developer support, it will snowball from there, or lest they risk being gobbled up and bought by the competition. Sure, Capcom could continue on supporting one of the underdogs but they will be the exception rather than the rule. The 360 will at best play for second just because of the shortage of Japanese developer support. I dont even wanna hear about the arguments about the importance of Japan but fact of the matter is, alot of game and influences comes from that country and I don't see that changing this generation. Maybe in the next one. The 360 will not bomb horrendously like the XBOX, however. Only the Wii and the PS3 has the luxury of ending up in first and it could go either way but preliminary results point to the Wii. However, I do acknowledge that alot can change in the next 6-12 months. Whoever comes out on top this generation will be decided in that time frame.
Great post. History tells us that the winning console always takes at least 60% of the net market. There has NEVER been a "close race" in terms of the final WW numbers, and a console which begins to break away from the pack always has it snowball into domination. And I agree that all signs point to Wii right now, and I agree that everything will be decided in a very short time frame, this Christmas at the absolute latest. Honestly, I can't see how PS3 can recover at this point, and I don't see how 360 can garner Japanese support without a Japanese audience, especially now that Wii is breathing down 360s neck.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

TheSource said: NPD - This Thursday. I did mean PS3 at 5 million and 360 at 1 million
My bad.



The Wii will do fine in Japan, just like DS. It will probably stay really popular. A little less in Europe due to Sony having a strong Playstation brand there. But in the US, where HD certainly matters more and more to consumers, I see the wii being a novelty. I just don't see the juggernaut support of games like Resident Evil, Grand Theft Auto, Unreal Tournament, or any other graphically intense game. That's a big big pie to miss out on. Sure, arcade games are great, but they have to expand beyond Zelda, Mario, Smash Brothers, Metroid. I have seen many, many articles on people programming really sloppy on the Wii when they could make good looking games. Remember how good Resident Evil looked on the Gamecube? It was THE best looking graphical game last generation. I just don't see the staying power. Both the 360 and PS3 will last longer as systems. They are just built to live longer, the Wii doesn't have much processing power in a video game world where advanced realistic physics are becoming very important to gameplay.



Stromprophet said: I just don't see the staying power. Both the 360 and PS3 will last longer as systems. They are just built to live longer, the Wii doesn't have much processing power in a video game world where advanced realistic physics are becoming very important to gameplay.
Funny, sounds like the argument for the PSP over DS... over the Xbox over PS2 (etc). Hardware performance just isn't *that* important anymore. Innovative games, an attractive price point and market momentum beat it out anyday.



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

So let me ask you all to predict this: Is this website over or underestimating the console sales in North America in January? I suspect at least one console will go up (by .1-.3 million) or stay the same (within .1 million up or down). Going up would indicate lowballing, going down would indicate...optimism in assessing the success of that console. If the situation similar to the CNBC incident occurs, then numbers could go down as well. If Patcher is right (he is bound to be right eventually), then Wii and PS3 should go up about 100k....



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu