January 2007 NPD Predictions

[Erik Aston]

ranzchic said: I still don't subscribe to the whole even split thing at end of life. It will be one of the three that will be dominant and the winner will be at least 50 million units ahead than the second placer. Developers are not stupid. Once the critical mass has been reached in developer support, it will snowball from there, or lest they risk being gobbled up and bought by the competition. Sure, Capcom could continue on supporting one of the underdogs but they will be the exception rather than the rule. The 360 will at best play for second just because of the shortage of Japanese developer support. I dont even wanna hear about the arguments about the importance of Japan but fact of the matter is, alot of game and influences comes from that country and I don't see that changing this generation. Maybe in the next one. The 360 will not bomb horrendously like the XBOX, however. Only the Wii and the PS3 has the luxury of ending up in first and it could go either way but preliminary results point to the Wii. However, I do acknowledge that alot can change in the next 6-12 months. Whoever comes out on top this generation will be decided in that time frame.

Great post. History tells us that the winning console always takes at least 60% of the net market. There has NEVER been a "close race" in terms of the final WW numbers, and a console which begins to break away from the pack always has it snowball into domination. And I agree that all signs point to Wii right now, and I agree that everything will be decided in a very short time frame, this Christmas at the absolute latest. Honestly, I can't see how PS3 can recover at this point, and I don't see how 360 can garner Japanese support without a Japanese audience, especially now that Wii is breathing down 360s neck.