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I just don't see the staying power
If Nintendo is successful at wooing new customers via the gimmick waggle that you speak of, HD doesnt really matter anymore. Once the install base is there, and once developers follow, all this talks about losing steam and having no staying power is nonsense. No console in the history of videogaming, after establishing itself and grinding competitors for quite a bit of time, had been toppled down from being top dog, ever.