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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2018 sales for Xb1, PS4, SW and 3DS

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jason1637 on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
jason1637 said: Some of these predictions are too high for the Switch.

Based on what? 2018 will be the first full year for Switch and Nintendo will more than likely have their stock issues solved. Couple that with consoles historically selling higher numbers in years 2 and 3 than launch year. There's always a chance Nintendo will price cut as well sometime in 2018. What factual evidence, other than bias and anecdotes, do you have to support your claim? 

I think 2018 will be up from 2017 but not by much. In the US the SSwitch isnt setting the world on fire or anything so i see it selling around 5m and on a weekly basis the Switch isnt doing much better than the XBO so i dont see it selling more than 33m in Europe next year. In Japan i think its going to sell a bit  more than the 3DS in 2012 so 5.5m and then around 500k ROW.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Based on what? 2018 will be the first full year for Switch and Nintendo will more than likely have their stock issues solved. Couple that with consoles historically selling higher numbers in years 2 and 3 than launch year. There's always a chance Nintendo will price cut as well sometime in 2018. What factual evidence, other than bias and anecdotes, do you have to support your claim? 

3ds had its best year, the first year. switch will only get dropped to 249.99 i don't see that causing a huge increase in sales/ also this is just my opinion, i think with such a strong nintendo lineup i think a huge chunk of N fans already picked one up.

You never see anything positive for Nintendo, only Sony lol

You do realize 3DS and Switch are completely different systems? Systems don't always follow the same trajectory. Look at PS2 vs PS3, X360 vs Xbox One, Wii vs Wii U. Things change from gen to gen. Everything about Switch thus far indicates it will be highly successful, Nintendo has set this thing up to do extremely well. I know you don't want that to happen, but it's happening right before you. 



PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
jason1637 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Based on what? 2018 will be the first full year for Switch and Nintendo will more than likely have their stock issues solved. Couple that with consoles historically selling higher numbers in years 2 and 3 than launch year. There's always a chance Nintendo will price cut as well sometime in 2018. What factual evidence, other than bias and anecdotes, do you have to support your claim? 

I think 2018 will be up from 2017 but not by much. In the US the SSwitch isnt setting the world on fire or anything so i see it around 500k ROW.

The region where Switch won several NPDs despite having shortages for 6 months? You're kidding right? In Europe I'd agree with this sentiment, but momentum seems to have increase in Europe with the release of Odyssey so who knows. 



quickrick on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

3ds had its best year, the first year. switch will only get dropped to 249.99 i don't see that causing a huge increase in sales/ also this is just my opinion, i think with such a strong nintendo lineup i think a huge chunk of N fans already picked one up.

You never see anything positive for Nintendo, only Sony lol

You do realize 3DS and Switch are completely different systems? Systems don't always follow the same trajectory. Look at PS2 vs PS3, X360 vs Xbox One, Wii vs Wii U. Things change from gen to gen. Everything about Switch thus far indicates it will be highly successful, Nintendo has set this thing up to do extremely well. I know you don't want that to happen, but it's happening right before you. 

ps2 vs ps3 was because sony messed up with pricing, and 360 stole its lunch, they delivered a console that was nearly as powerful a year earlier, better controller, and better price . wii was fad. switch will follow 3ds, but crash much faster because of the mobile market.



PortisheadBiscuit on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

You never see anything positive for Nintendo, only Sony lol

You do realize 3DS and Switch are completely different systems? Systems don't always follow the same trajectory. Look at PS2 vs PS3, X360 vs Xbox One, Wii vs Wii U. Things change from gen to gen. Everything about Switch thus far indicates it will be highly successful, Nintendo has set this thing up to do extremely well. I know you don't want that to happen, but it's happening right before you. 

ps2 vs ps3 was because sony messed up with pricing, and 360 stole its lunch, they delivered a console that was nearly as powerful a year earlier, better controller, and better price . wii was fad. switch will follow 3ds, but crash much faster because of the mobile market.

Well shit, Nintendo "messed up with pricing" on the 3DS as well if you want to go that route. They missed out on the potential for a bigger launch because of it. It's really moot though, point is you cannot guarantee a console will perform exactly or in similar vein to it's predecessor. In fact, no console has done that if you think about it. 

The mobile market has been strong for YEARS, Switch is selling despite the presence of the mobile market. It would have been DOA, like many of you wanted, if mobile was going to impede future success. You're so busy wanting Switch to fail you're missing the bottom line of why it's successful in the first place. VERSATILITY! Which no other gaming console has had to this degree. 



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StarDoor on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

You never see anything positive for Nintendo, only Sony lol

You do realize 3DS and Switch are completely different systems? Systems don't always follow the same trajectory. Look at PS2 vs PS3, X360 vs Xbox One, Wii vs Wii U. Things change from gen to gen. Everything about Switch thus far indicates it will be highly successful, Nintendo has set this thing up to do extremely well. I know you don't want that to happen, but it's happening right before you. 

ps2 vs ps3 was because sony messed up with pricing, and 360 stole its lunch, they delivered a console that was nearly as powerful a year earlier, better controller, and better price . wii was fad. switch will follow 3ds, but crash much faster because of the mobile market.

Because, as we all know, the mobile market didn't exist in 2016, when 3DS sold 7.6 million units and was up year-on-year.



jason1637 on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
jason1637 said:

I think 2018 will be up from 2017 but not by much. In the US the SSwitch isnt setting the world on fire or anything so i see it around 500k ROW.

The region where Switch won several NPDs despite having shortages for 6 months? You're kidding right? In Europe I'd agree with this sentiment, but momentum seems to have increase in Europe with the release of Odyssey so who knows. 

Switch didnt have shortages in October and November and it didnt push a crazy amount of units.



quickrick on 30 December 2017
StarDoor said:
quickrick said:

ps2 vs ps3 was because sony messed up with pricing, and 360 stole its lunch, they delivered a console that was nearly as powerful a year earlier, better controller, and better price . wii was fad. switch will follow 3ds, but crash much faster because of the mobile market.

Because, as we all know, the mobile market didn't exist in 2016, when 3DS sold 7.6 million units and was up year-on-year.

well 7.6 million units is not impressive, 3ds has been selling that amount in like it's 4th year, that's effect of the mobile market, which shrunk the 3ds and vita market.



StarDoor on 30 December 2017
quickrick said:
StarDoor said:

Because, as we all know, the mobile market didn't exist in 2016, when 3DS sold 7.6 million units and was up year-on-year.

well 7.6 million units is not impressive, 3ds has been selling that amount in like it's 4th year, that's effect of the mobile market, which shrunk the 3ds and vita market.

So, in your eyes, when did 3DS crash?



quickrick on 30 December 2017
PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

ps2 vs ps3 was because sony messed up with pricing, and 360 stole its lunch, they delivered a console that was nearly as powerful a year earlier, better controller, and better price . wii was fad. switch will follow 3ds, but crash much faster because of the mobile market.

Well shit, Nintendo "messed up with pricing" on the 3DS as well if you want to go that route. They missed out on the potential for a bigger launch because of it. It's really moot though, point is you cannot guarantee a console will perform exactly or in similar vein to it's predecessor. In fact, no console has done that if you think about it. 

The mobile market has been strong for YEARS, Switch is selling despite the presence of the mobile market. It would have been DOA, like many of you wanted, if mobile was going to impede future success. You're so busy wanting Switch to fail you're missing the bottom line of why it's successful in the first place. VERSATILITY! Which no other gaming console has had to this degree. 

3ds didn't have any competition,and it was price at 199$ it would have its best year first year by a nice gap. switch is selling this year, beause nintedo fans are huge chunk of the buyers, it won't last believe me.