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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 50): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 11-17

OTBWY said:
Zekkyou said:

Long-term I'm expecting to see a lot of give and take in Japan. Outside of deals with Sony and Nintendo themselves, there's little reason for most Japanese developers to not have their previously Sony only, and Nintendo only IP start appearing on both the PS4 and Switch.

It's about which sells the most. That's the primary reason for support. When the Switch in Japan has more than double the sales of the PS4 in a few years, you can be 100% sure that the Switch will get more support than the PS4.

Of course there are exceptions to the rule, for example the attitude Falcom has displayed is one of loyalty to Sony (which it has a close relationship with since the PS1). The same can be said for certain studios and Nintendo. Some will simply not switch sides out of pure loyalty and not burning bridges in favor of making new ones. 

And lastly, there will surely be exceptions of titles that do break the exclusivity rule, like Valkyria or Inazuma Eleven. Or of course outright buying exclusivity like Sony has done with certain titles or Nintendo has done with Bayonetta.

While that's often true, there's usually a soft limit to how far sales stay relevant in this context (as we've seen with the PS4 and X1). I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch does get more support in some capacity (at minimum more sales do lead to a better position to make deals), but i expect the difference to be considerably smaller than it has been in previous generations. Few Japanese PS4/Vita titles make use of tech high end enough to cause significant porting problems to the Switch, and many 3DS developers are about to be pushed into HD development. Combine that with the the Switch's inevitable domestic strength, and the PS4's existing global (and decent domestic) reach, a developer would need a good reason to not support both by default. I think even the X1 will see an uptick in Japanese support over the next few years.



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Complete and utter Switch domination!! Mario Odyssey slaying!!
Xenoblade 2 still not out of the top 20 yessssss. Weird that the PS4 didn't increase in sales. Digimon's opening is disappointing, I hope it sells well or at least decently in the west.



nero said:

Next week should do 300K. Do it!!!!

That curb-stomping (should I say Goomba stomping?) from the Switch... PS4 and 3DS really have to add up their different versions to even just match the slower weeks of the Switch!

KBG29 said:
It is hillarious that people will argue against a Switch Phone or PS4 Phone when you see these kind of sales for the Switch. Sony and Nintendo would own the Mobile market in Japan if they made any attempt at it. Hopefully one of them will break out of their shell and give consumers an option in the mobile industry outside of the stagnate duopoly.

In other news, hope PS4 can hold on and increase Year over Year. It is going to be very interesting to see how much Monster Hunter can do early next year. If sales start to slip next year Sony will have to look into a mobile PS4 option for 2019, at least for Japan, the PS5 ain't gonna cut it there if PS4 is going to fail to reach 10 Million lifetime.

For once, I'm with you to some degree. I do think a Switch phone is very much a possibility - but not right now.

Even in 10nm, the Hardware would be too consuming for a 5" Smartphone, unless they would make it considerably more heavy and bulky than the smartphones on the market or risk having a battery life in gaming of less than 2 hours. Plus, the Switch phone would necessarily be digital only due to it's thinness, so it would need drastically more storage space, and Flash Chips come at a premium right now, meaning it would make that phone much more expensive.

Software is also a problem. I'm not talking about games, but about productivity apps, because Nintendo certainly wouldn't have Goole store on it's Switch Phone. While games shouldn't be a problem with all that Nintendo is doing right now, it also does very much need some productivity apps, and I'm not sure if many devs would be willing to make that jump.

As for a PS4 phone... yeah, that has to wait for quite a while to reach that power with sufficient battery life and no risks of overheating in such a small case. Also, unlike the Switch which uses the same hardware base, most games would need to be rewritten from scratch to work on Smartphone hardware.  So I doubt we will see something like this anytime soon. Sony might bring out a Playstation Phone, but it wouldn't be compatible with any console games and probably just a Smartphone with a D-pad, maybe some thumbsticks (maybe because they would be protruding and make the phone rather big - but that would be also a problem for a Switch phone) and physical input buttons



Since the release of SMO, the switch has sold almost 1M in Japan alone! And Mario just hit 1M mark... A W E S O M E



Zekkyou said:
OTBWY said:

It's about which sells the most. That's the primary reason for support. When the Switch in Japan has more than double the sales of the PS4 in a few years, you can be 100% sure that the Switch will get more support than the PS4.

Of course there are exceptions to the rule, for example the attitude Falcom has displayed is one of loyalty to Sony (which it has a close relationship with since the PS1). The same can be said for certain studios and Nintendo. Some will simply not switch sides out of pure loyalty and not burning bridges in favor of making new ones. 

And lastly, there will surely be exceptions of titles that do break the exclusivity rule, like Valkyria or Inazuma Eleven. Or of course outright buying exclusivity like Sony has done with certain titles or Nintendo has done with Bayonetta.

While that's often true, there's usually a soft limit to how far sales stay relevant in this context (as we've seen with the PS4 and X1). I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch does get more support in some capacity (at minimum more sales do lead to a better position to make deals), but i expect the difference to be considerably smaller than it has been in previous generations. Few Japanese PS4/Vita titles make use of tech high end enough to cause significant porting problems to the Switch, and many 3DS developers are about to be pushed into HD development. Combine that with the the Switch's inevitable domestic strength, and the PS4's existing global (and decent domestic) reach, a developer would need a good reason to not support both by default. I think even the X1 will see an uptick in Japanese support over the next few years.

- Travis Strikes back: No More Heroes

- Bayonetta 1 + 2 Collection

- Bayonetta 3

- Shin Megami Tensei V

- Project Octopath Traveler

These are all exclusive to the Nintendo Switch so far. 

Sony also lost exclusivity with: 

- Dragon Quest XI (home console version)

- Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2

- Dragon Quest Builders 1 & 2

- Valkyria Chronicles 4 (never before on a Nintendo console)

Nintendo lost exclusivity with: 

- Monster Hunter World (and that's more due to Capcom's stupidity than anything else)

As the Switch userbase continues to grow, Nintendo will receive more exclusives and games that used to be exclusive to Playstation. This will not end well for the Playstation in Japan. 

So far, Bandai Namco and Capcom are the only two major Japanese companies who seem to still not understand that the Switch is here to stay. Their loss I suppose. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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God damn, amazing Switch sales!



Finally the long awaited 200k+ week!

Just about every important 1rst party switch game is doing well. Happy to see ARMS showed up in time for it's holiday boost as well. Next week is going to be insane.
Switch probably won't be able to mach the 400k+ the 3DS did in it's first holiday, but 300k+ should be in order.



Zelda at 700k!

Let's go Switch version!



Some corrections to the LTD's of past Xenoblade games:

-In it's first year period (2015-'16), X reached 118,613. In its' second period ('16-'17), it gained 8753, making it 127,366. This is for physical purchase, and not much is known about its' digital sales. We also haven't seen the ('17-'18) period just yet, however due to the state of the Wii U this year, I have doubts it was higher then 8000. My point here is that X never reached 160,000 physically.

-Xenoblade 1 on the other hand had very good sales; 161,161 for it's first year period ('10-'11). And then over the following 4 years, managed to gain an additional 35,464 physical sales; ending on 196,625.

-And for those curious, XB3D sold 103,495 in the ('15-'16) period. The next year it made it to 113,783.


From this data we can see that so far, within 3 weeks, Xenoblade 2 has managed to outsell both Xenoblade3D and Xenoblade X LTD's in physical sales. While we don't know digital sales, it can be a assumed that XB3D has been far outsold due to digital being a smaller buying format on 3DS. As I said before, X is an unknown factor in regards to digital.

As for the original Xenoblade, it remains to be seen whether 2 can beat it. As of right now, it's far outpacing it (especially with the hidden digital numbers which were none existent on Wii), so logic would dictate that it's possible for it to leg it past the original as long as sales don't fall too much.



Btw guys zelda is guaranteed a million seller in japan at this point for years end. Nintendo financial reports will show this.

702k sold nsw
140k+ sold wiiu

842k retail sales add another 40k for last 2 weeks and its 880k. Digital+shipped is 1mil+