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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

Lawlight said:
SWORDF1SH said:

What's all this about benchmarks? The best November was over 2M set by the Wii. I guess the PS4 underperformed. 

It’s moot comparing the PS4 to the Wii when we know the PS4 will pass the Wii’s lifetime sales.

You cant compare regions now?! If it were nintendo you would definetly be talking region only :P



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give it a rest damnit!



zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

So you are saying that the yearly games are the system seller for PS4

Absolutely, it would be rediculous to claim games like Call of Duty & FIFA arent some of the biggest system sellers for PS4 but i did also list a handful on non-annual franchises like Watch Dogs, Destiny, GTA, Last of Us.

They are important IP, but to say they were the reason for sales??? If it were me saying CoD and Fifa are more relevant than Zelda and Mario I would probably be marked to death... but since we can put yearly releases at the same level of "the two best games of history" ok.

KLAMarine said:
DonFerrari said:

So you think that all favorable Nintendo comments were logical and non-favorable were illogical and for some reason all over there agree....

If I recall correctly, the majority of favorable comments were typical "oh, amazing" or were bringing up how many doubted Switch's success.

They weren't making an argument.

I noticed many of your posts were downvoted: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/270496/switch-was-the-best-selling-product-online-over-thanksgiving-black-friday-and-cyber-monday/

But I repeat, a downvote is vague and offers no feedback thus we cannot conclude who did it nor the motive.

ryuzaki57 said:

1/ Correct. My sentence is inaccurate. I meant that comparatively to other systems, it didn't rise as fast. It's slowing down in the race with PS4 & X1.

2/ I don't remember SWBII being exclusive to PS4.

1. Did you take into consideration the lack of discounts and bundles on the Switch's end?

2. It's not exclusive but Sony surely must have paid some price to exclusively market EA's recent debacle. Money that could have gone to the Bayonetta IP. Instead, it was Nintendo that rescued Bayonetta from being shelved indefinitely rather than Sony. Sony put their money on CoD, BF2, and Fifa.

Go play those games. They're not Bayonetta but perhaps you'll find them to your liking.

All my comments had some downvote. And I fail to see why someone would click show on a over 7 downvote see "thread title is wrong and Adobe numbers aren't precise" and consider that a need to downvote again... unless that person have an agenda.

Go again and look what posts got positive and negative scores, all that doubted Adobe (not saying Nintendo lost, were bad or anything, just disputing the source) got downvoted and all posts that were congratulating received fully positives... if you don't see any tendence ok.

Case in point, the thread title was wrong and Switch didn't won the month.

Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

Its not good because Switch is $100 less than PS4 was in 2014.

It wasn't going against a 199$ 4yo console either

And PS4/X1 were going against 100-150 X360, PS3, 3DS. With even bigger backlogs.

Lawlight said:
Mar1217 said:

It wasn't going against a 199$ 4yo console either

Isn’t the console being 4 years old a detriment to that console? And back in 2014, the PS4 was going against the $149 3DS and the $199 WiiU though. And the $330 Xbox One.

It was also going against 100-150 X360 PS3... but that doesn't matter when we have to say poor Switch against unfair competition.

OTBWY said:
I had it wrong LOL. I will take it for now, HOWEVER, the PS4 was 200 quid. Whatever argument there is after that is pointless. Sony fans gloat too much when they have been losing NPD's month after month to the Switch. That should say enough.

Oh well, we will see next NPD.

Yep, and you weren't gloating, neither were Nintendo fans, right??? But of course you go there and excuse yourself after.

OTBWY said:
Lawlight said:

That’s funny when Nintendo fans have been the ones gloating for months in the NPD and Media Create charts.

Yes. I have engaged in it as well. Why? Because they did win those head to head With no discount.

And I will continue praising Nintendo when they win another.

Yep criticizes other for your own behavior.

zorg1000 said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

It doesn't, the PS4 is ahead of the Switch launches aligned.

At 399$

If you really insist that price alone puts PS4 at the disadvantage than you have to account for it having a blu-ray player and other multimedia features, 15x as much storage, and like 5x as powerful.

Thanks to recognize PS4 as the best system.

tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:

Hard to say - Nintendo can be stubborn with the prices of their H/W - see the WiiU.

I only make lifetime predictions with regards to hardware like PS4 over 105M and Switch selling less than the sum of the 3DS and WiiU. Monthly sales in 1 country just seems too volatile for me to predict. I did tell you though that the Switch won’t sell $150k more than the PS4 in October if you recall.

If I predicted Nov I would have put the Switch on top because it’s a new system that’s cheap. I’m as surprised as you guys are that it sold less than 900k. Especially when you read all the articles about how the Switch will be the hottest item this black friday, etc.

And ps4 with the BOmB bOmB drops of $199. It looked like an easy X1 win months ago. Things changed.

 

That said if you cant predict yourself then dont criticise any1 else.

So anyone that isn't a professional musician, game creator or actor can criticize the works of those?

Lawlight said:
Mar1217 said:

1) A little bit of boasting, aren't ya ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) You should have add "bigger" too if you want to get the most out of it.

2) Glad, we can agree that the PSVita never existed 

3) Today, if you go with the pricepoint of the Xbone + the launch of XbX + the Switch,newest hardware from Nintendo, then yeah. But in 2014 ? Mmm ... I would disagree

1. Nah, the PC has the biggest library.

2. So there’s no overlapping with regards to the console market and the handheld market?

3. The XB1 was actually cheaper than the PS4 for most of November 2014. May be why the X1 won by such a huge margin in Nov 2014. Those PS3 were actually very low so it could be stock issues. But the 3DS was also super cheap back then despite being relatively new.

Apparently Switch being a hybrid allows Nintendo fans to use it as Console and Handheld and use any pros or cons of those aspects when needed and excuse the other.

spurgeonryan said:
So Switch lost? They were selling out, Nintendo just had no faith in themselves again and made too few. But I could say that for PS4 as well.

Yep they lost, but Switch didn't had lack of supply. 199 PS4 were understocked.

FarleyMcFirefly said:
Some of these comments are absolutely ridiculous. Like these people get off on another company failing? How does that make sense? And how exactly is the Switch failing? One comment was " if it sold 800k it wouldn't be bad but it didn't reach that"... 770 k is pretty damn close. And pretty impressive considering there were 0 sales. Nintendo is raking in all the profits.
Also I LOL at the people who claim it is a fad that will die next year. Unifying handheld and home console is a revolution to the industry, not a fad. It has strong momentum. It has plenty of system sellers left from established franchises (who knows what else they have planned). The concept is selling the system itself. Third party support is gradually increasing, not decreasing. All I see is success for the Switch's future. But I could be wrong.

Sorry, I don't want this kind of revolution and won't be eager to see the industry go over there.

160rmf said:
zorg1000 said:

Remember all the people that said $299 for Switch was way too high and it would fail because of it?

Now all of a sudden its only doing this well because its $299?

I remember that pretty well. The general consensus was that Switch need release with $249 and a game bundled or else will fail.

Some even were saying to drop to $200. 

Of course people don't remember because those narrative was buried just after we have the numbers.

Remember "Switch launch was to quite"? Or Nintendo creating artificial demand? Switch owners desperate for games?

They will never learn and will always change their narrative instead of accepting that Nintendo created a great console.

Yep, because the other side of the coin don't ever do that.... like people predicting PS4 to fail and be outsold by WiiU...

nemo37 said:
gcwy said:
I think this is a clear indication of the interest in Switch dropping. It had no supply issues in this region, the $299 was still considerably less than the Pro or Xbox One X and it also had Mario and Zelda going for it this year, something that won't be true for next year. I don't see 2018 being a good year for Switch. It has no interesting big name exclusive, I don't think either Metroid or Pokemon will make it to 2018. I hope it pulls through and succeeds, though. With the Wii U failing, at least Nintendo had the 3DS to rely on.

The majority of sales for PS4 and XOne came from One S and PS4 Slim (both of which got massive discounts) not One X or Pro. Also, how is being up month by month and nearly matching PS4 and 3DS's first full November an indication that interest is falling? FYI, 3DS sold very similarly to Switch in its first November, but it got beaten by a huge margin by Xbox 360 and to a lesser degree by both Wii and PS3 in that month and 3DS did not end up failing. Not sure how people are thinking 770K is a bad number when the system is at full price while it's competitors had over $100 in hardware discounts and lots of software sales. Also, this is nowhere close to Wii U (where sales in its first full November was in the 200k territory).

X1X because of preorders and all made a very good portion of X1 sales.

PS4/X1 had strong and even cheaper competition.

And what is being pointed is that Nintendo fans were putting sales at a higher number but that wasn't met, so that is  where the "bad number" come from... Nintendo fans can't really say the system will sell over 1M and when it does a lot lower say the others are being mean to them.

Megiddo said:
I'm curious, what was the library of games like for the PS4 in November 2014, since that's what keeps getting brought up?

Switch has two of Nintendo's most popular icons leading the charge and the follow-up to its best selling new IP in its first year. There is no question that this has been an absolute killing of year in terms of iconic releases for Switch. I don't recall PS4 having nearly as good of an opening year in terms of the BIG releases, but is that just cause I can't remember that far back?

Zelda BotW, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey are all huge must-own games for the Switch, so why would people put off purchasing one during the holidays this year if not for price aversion?

People here are pretending the yearly titles were more of a reason to buy PS4 (and ignore X1 existed) than Mario and Zelda... I never thought Nintendo fans would put the "two best games ever" below CoD and Fifa.

Kai_Mao said:
Megiddo said:
I'm curious, what was the library of games like for the PS4 in November 2014, since that's what keeps getting brought up?

Switch has two of Nintendo's most popular icons leading the charge and the follow-up to its best selling new IP in its first year. There is no question that this has been an absolute killing of year in terms of iconic releases for Switch. I don't recall PS4 having nearly as good of an opening year in terms of the BIG releases, but is that just cause I can't remember that far back?

Zelda BotW, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey are all huge must-own games for the Switch, so why would people put off purchasing one during the holidays this year if not for price aversion?

They did mention December will probably be better for the Switch considering history. Plus the PS4 and Xbone has better deals. You can’t beat a $199 price tag with 4-year old established libraries.

PS4 and X1 beaten 3DS, PS3 and X360 on a situation of they costing 399 and 329 without much library against 100-150 consoles with 7 years worth of library.

Acevil said:
Intrinsic said:

Are we all going t just pretend that the switch isn't only like 6 months old an "competing" with 4 year old consoles? 

Or that its being compared to a first holiday of other consoles that came over a year after they had released and that while one of those consoles saw discounts they were still both more expensive than the $300 asking price of the switch.

I am not saying the thing is failing or going to fail. I am saying that  all things considered I saw no reason why it wouldn't have sold more even at the current pricing. Which is why I predicted it comes second in november with over 1300K sales.

I mean, two of the biggest IPs on any nintnedo platform have already made a showing on the hardware.... and say next year nintendo drops the price to what? $250 and include a game? (which is something i don't see nintendo doing to be honest) are people here really suggesting that going from $299 to $249 is all the push that is needed?

To the first line, Isn't the 3rd or 4th year the prime years for majority of consoles. The fact it is actually able to compete is some what impressive, this was the same DOA console that actually seemed to get things right and hitting its stride, and now people are saying 800,000 in November is bad?

To the second line, Can also go the other way, since it is hybrid, the fact it actually beating 3DS/Vita at higher price point shows that it is indeed healthy.

It is all about value in the end, if consumers perceive value. For example: I thought PS4 at 399.99 has/had more value than 299.99 Switch, I bought both at launch. I think the Switch is tad bit overpriced, while I had no issue 399.99 PS4 pricing at the time. Also note Xbox One had games bundled in to also sweeten the pot with the price tag of 329.99, only reason it beat PS4 at 399.99 in my eyes. 

The thing is, these consoles are priced competitively to their value. We live in age where $1,000 Phone can easily beat $500 Phones, because of perceived value, and we still compare there market shares both unit and revenue. 

Third Line, I thought it might do more as well (My prediction was 1 million), however I do not remotely consider 800,000 bad numbers or failing. The issue is a lot of people in this thread are treating like switch is just going to disappear it this stage. One person even said it would do less than the gamecube (posted in another thread, but also posted in here similar lines). 

Fourth line, while I do not know if can keep up full momentum of being or beating 14 million in FY 2018-2019. I think it should still have healthy 10-12 million, Yes I do expect a price cut, and I do expect more solid games. The biggest title for it has yet to come out, which is Pokemon.  Also just going for $299.99 to $249.99 alone will not cut it, it will need solid library as well, which I believe it will have. 

The people aren't saying 800k is bad, they are saying it's half of PS4 and that Nintendo fans themselves were expecting over 1M. So put the burden on the right crowd.

You can't use the hybrid excuse to both sides on any situation as you see fit... when to discuss why it is a success it's because it brings console games to portability, when it do lower than desk consoles it is only going against tired 3DS and dead PSDead.

Good that you recognize PS4 as better value system even at 399, so at 199 it was a steal... still 800k preferred to buy a Switch instead of a PS4, crazy folks.

You are considering with more weight the one or two that are singing a death song to Switch than the dozen that are singing overpraise for it.

Alkibiádēs said:
Lawlight said:

The majority of people knew that it would do well simply because it is the 3DS’s successor while also being a cheap console. Sure it is doing better than most expected. And no matter what you say price makes a big difference. Also, the PS4 is one of the fastest selling when you consider WW sales, not just US when it’s actually not selling that fast. Ask yourself - how would the Switch sales in the US have compared to the PS4’s if the latter was released at $299?

Switch is $50 more expensive than the 3DS at launch and the latter needed a big price cut before it started to sell well.

If the PS4 was released at $299 it would have been an underpowered console and it would have lost against the more powerful Xbox One.

Love how much you work on the "ifs" and of course in a manner that favor exclusively your console of choice.

PortisheadBiscuit said:
It took a 33% price cut for PS4 and Xbox One to beat Switch for November. Had they all been $299, Switch would've come out on top like it's done several times this year. Why are people trying to push a narrative of Switch being a failure because of losing a month where the competition had significant discounts?

Better discuss it with Miyamoto that consider the 249 he could find PS4 on Amazon as basically a MSRP, so it was a 20% discount.

If you want to blame the lack of competitivity of Switch on price go against Nintendo not forum goers... and you don't even see embarrassed to complain about couple guys that think Switch will fail (and they aren't saying it is because it only sold 800k now, but because they think it will drop next year) but doesn't even talk about the utter defense of Switch.

tbone51 said:
quickrick said:

thats a prediction, i believe it will slow down big time

Do you have a crystal ball for that prediction? :P

And do you have any to predict it will do great or anything?

VideoGameAccountant said:
I find it silly that this thread is up to 72 pages based on speculation. Not to be high and mighty, but we're going back and forth based on information on a commenter that isn't even right.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/mizuho-securities-the-ps4-came-out-top-for-hardware-in-november-2017-usa.10177/page-17#post-1885610

Let's just wait for the release. Then we can play console wars (and yes, Restera is cancer)

The ballpark is mostly right, and you can see the evidences along the thread.

tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:

So that’s the benchmark for the Switch. Will be an interesting fight to see.

Thats a benchmark because its very high so of course you use that. Your arguement of price doesnt come into play for this comparison? ($169 vs $299)

I mean this whole time you been saying comparison for ps4 first post launch nov isnt fair ($399) but because it twist into your downplaying its fine for 3ds to be compared right?

If switch does lets say 1.4mil i cant wait for you to downplay it xD

Ok then let's compare PS4 first holiday at 399 and X1 at 329 against 3DS, Vita, X360, PS2 at 100-150.

tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:

Ok, you want to lower the benchmark? Fine. And notice that I’m not actually downplaying the Switch sales - I said they were good. I’m just pointing how a lot of people, especially Nintendo fans, were expecting it to sell a fair bit more. You know what my lifetime prediction is anyway. Feel free to rub it in my face when the Switch passes those numbers.

Not going to rub it in, just dont claim a high figure and when it sells underneath it say it didnt hit "expectations".

1.65mil is a high as number, switch i see doing a 1mil, maybe closer to 1.5mil if enough sells (obviously) but higher than that (though possible) as the benchmark seems wrong imo

If the ones claiming over 1M are Nintendo fans and the system doesn't hit the expectations then have under performed or we have to praise it even higher when it happens?

This just seems like the last thread when someone saying that meeting what was expected couldn't be treated as surprise or overly positive.... but was shot to death because people think the world used to describe not being above expectations to be negative (more like a case of since it didn't praise Nintendo then it must be a hater).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Youll never see it coming



Lol, almost 800 posts despite little concrete info. Clearly some feathers ruffled here, on both sides

Last edited by Teeqoz - on 11 December 2017

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I cant believe we have people denying Call of Duty & FIFA are two of the biggest system sellers on PS4.

My mind is blown right now.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Teeqoz said:

Lol, almost 800 posts despite little concrete info. Clearly some feathers ruffled here, on both sides

Are you using my avatar from christmas 2015, aren't you.

Good times haha



Shadow1980 said:

Here you go (with an error bar on the Switch that assumes 825k ±75k to show the assumed range of 750-900k):

 

Thanks!

So it's slightly above or below the PS4? Meaning it's either 4th or 3rd place? Hey, that's pretty good! Especially since Xbox tends to do astronomically well in November/December months. So it's only real competition on that chart is PS4, Wii and PS2 lifetime. 



zorg1000 said:
I cant believe we have people denying Call of Duty & FIFA are two of the biggest system sellers on PS4.

My mind is blown right now.

Knack is by far ps4 biggest seller..

 

@don holy crap im not quoting you with that long ass post! I will say you dont need a crystal ball to see switch wont heavily decline next year lol



Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:

Lol, almost 800 posts despite little concrete info. Clearly some feathers ruffled here, on both sides

Are you using my avatar from christmas 2015, aren't you.

Good times haha

I am indeed

 

VGC isn't quite the same as it was back then.