quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:
2018 will probably be a repeat of 2017.
Switch wins most months according to NPD.
PS4 wins a few and is competitive even in the months it loses.
XBO goes back to a distant 3rd most months unless a big price cut or something happens that gives it a win for 1 or 2 months.
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LOL your gonna be surprised dude when switch sales are gonna fall of a cliff in 2018. 2017 will be nothing like 2018, weather you wanna believe it or not 2017, is nintendo best line up ever, and also a new system launch that didnt meat demand for months, because most nintedo fans wanted one, so sales were inflated month to month, because day one buyers couldn't get it one.
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There are a few problems with your assertion. Sales of a console do not simply fall off the cliff if the company has a backlog and continues to support the system. The 3DS started its first year with a new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda, Star Fox, Monster Hunter, etc. Its second year did not result in sales suddenly falling off the cliff. Nintendo's games have legs and they can carry a system (particularly when bundled at competitive prices). Moreover, if demand starts to drop Nintendo can simply drop the price and introduce value bundles with existing games that are out (December will be a big test of that; should Nintendo not go over a million in December, assuming stock is available, then that is clearly a sign that Switch needs a price cut in 2018). Furthermore, Nintendo still has plenty of aces that move consoles. 2D Mario, Smash Bros, Pokemon, 2D Zelda, Animal Crossing etc and potentially new IP (not many people thought Splatoon would end up becoming a console seller) all have the potential to do even more not to mention the possibility for sequels. Niche games like Bayonetta and Fire Emblem will attract the smaller bases that support those games to the system.
The inflation argument makes absolutely no sense. PS4 was sold out for several months after its launch, where its sales inflated because Sony fans wanted one and could not get one on day one or perhaps there was a greater interest by a wider audience? The answer is quite obvious that overall demand was higher, as it is with Switch hence why the systems were selling out. If it was only a small group of people buying the system (the Nintendo fans that purchased Wii U) this system, at this production level, would have been nowhere close to selling out to begin with.
I think the biggest threat to Switch right now is its price. How big of a threat that is will be seen in December where sales have to increase substantially to meet their target. Should sales not substantially increase in December on good stock then it likely means the system is bottlenecked by its price. This bottleneck clearly played a role in these November results, assuming that you are correct in that stock was plentiful throughout November, then the PS4 to Switch gap can largely be explained by the price of the PS4 during BF ($199) week versus Switch's price ($300).