Everyone that says 'The Wii has already won' is missing the point that the Wii is still likely to be replaced before the PS3 will. The Wii is also aimed at a completely different audience, if you look at the types of game available then you will notice that more 'Serious' games are available on the PS3 with more family / kids games are on the Wii. Certain genres are clearly better selling on the PS3 and others on the Wii. If I want to play driving games then I wouldn't buy a Wii for example... The problem that Sony has at the moment is a lack of games, and more specifically a lack of games that are machine exclusive. Looking at the release schedule in Japan is depressing with only two games I really want for June / July. One being Mina No Golf 5 and the other being Wangan Midnight. I have 8 games for the PS3 (Motorstorm, F1 CE, Ridge Racer 7, Virtua Fighter 5, Power Smash 3, Mahjong Fight Club, Railfan and Pro Baseball Spirits and technically Gran Turismo HD and Toro the White Cat - Mainichi Issyo) and it's depressing as it is a third of what is available... :( Sony also have to find ways of making the machine cheaper.

I think people are underestimating the difficulty of Sony lowering their prices significantly. Their main goal this year is to maintain profitability. They have already estimated that their gaming division loss is going to be cut to $500 million. A big price cut will make that target impossible. If they lose another $2 billion in the gaming division, more than one head will roll this time.

Yumimi said: Everyone that says 'The Wii has already won' is missing the point that the Wii is still likely to be replaced before the PS3 will.

This is irrelevant.

Say in 4 years (2010), the Wii  has sold 60m units - and the PS3 30m.

Firstly - based on this scenario - who would be the first to release a new format? It would depend on the weekly sales at that point - but most studios would be focusing on the Wii rather than PS3.

 

Secondly - lets just assume that Nintendo releases the Wii II - and Sony sticks with the PS3. What would happen?

The Wii II would (probably) sell just as crazy as the Wii did - except this time, it would have gfx comparible with the PS3 - and may have some other awesome features/input control. They would be priced similarly, or even with the Wii II being cheaper. The Wii II would run Wii software of course (but probably not GC titles - they could be downloadable this time).

In the next 4 years, the Wii II would sell maybe 50/60m units - and the PS3 another 35m.

...

The PS3 outsells the Wii, and also outsells the Wii II. But who wins? Combined the Wii / Wii II have still DOUBLED the unit sales of the PS3 (over its lifetime). Developers will now be porting PS3 titles to the Wii II (or sequels to the Wii). PS3 is considered "old", with the Xbox 720(?) killing it technically.

Its just like the current situation again... the PS3 becomes the PS2 (just less successful), the Wii II becomes the Wii, and the 720 --> 360. The difference? There is no "equiv" PS3 (the PS3 remains) - and its old, and underpowered.

Sony end up in a worse position than they are now - almost writing themselves out of the industry.

They *have to* release a PS4 around the time the Xbox 720 comes out... or it could really be game over (stuck as the middle console, and just not competitive).

 

Bring back vibration to their controller. Get more exclusives. Bring out games with better graphics.

Yumimi said: Everyone that says 'The Wii has already won' is missing the point that the Wii is still likely to be replaced before the PS3 will.Â

I'm sure that Nintendo really cares about that when they launched a system that probably costs them around $150 to make and sell it at $250.

Nintendo has already won. Whether they end up selling the most consoles or not (almost a given at this point) is irrelevent. The Wii is printing money for them; to a business, that's all that matters.

DaBIAS said: Simple - big price drop and massive marketing campaign, they have the games to do it. - they can eat the costs, especially that Br is winning the format war around the world. - its win win, PS3 does better BR does better more software sales (especially 3rd party)

 Someone did the maths in another topic and it showed that bluray loyalties werent particularly significant in comparison to what they are loosing from the PS3, im not sure if their maths was correct but its the only actual figures I have seen as of yet concerning it.  Also Sony is big, but not big enough to consistently eat a 2Bil loss from their game department. They need to dominate the generation to turn a profit as was shown by the PS2 which was barely profitable.

 

rocketpig said: Yumimi said: Everyone that says 'The Wii has already won' is missing the point that the Wii is still likely to be replaced before the PS3 will. I'm sure that Nintendo really cares about that when they launched a system that probably costs them around $150 to make and sell it at $250. Nintendo has already won. Whether they end up selling the most consoles or not (almost a given at this point) is irrelevent. The Wii is printing money for them; to a business, that's all that matters.

Right. Nintendo doesn't have to depend on anything at all at this point in the game to continue enjoying success:

- You'd be hard-pressed to find one unmodded Wii on the market here in Asia, but it doesn't matter. Nintendo already is making money on each console sold. Edit: I bet once Blu-ray is cracked you will see a FLOOD of modded PS3s on sale with eager buyers gobbling it up, but that flies against the Sony's revenue model.

- If Sony counters with a price cut, Nintendo can do so and are in a much better financial position to do so.

- If Nintendo replaces the Wii, say next year, it won't matter to them, because they are already making a killing with the console. Sony simply cannot afford to do the same with the PS3.

- If the PS3 starts to sell due to the immense graphical power difference compared to the Wii, Nintendo can still sell the Wii and while it may not sell as much, it still has the price factor in its favor.

Honestly, IMO, Sony has already lost to Nintendo, for Nintendo has an economically feasible answer to anything the PS3 can throw at it. The war for second place (PS3 vs 360) is where the action's going to be at.

your mother said: The war for second place (PS3 vs 360) is where the action's going to be at.

Pretty much. And due to the reasons you listed (hardware costs and financial flexibility), I think MS will pull out the second place "win".

imo ps3 has to go for $450 in order for a "nice" increase in sales..$450 is still alot of money for a system.. and isnt sony already losing $200 plus on each system sold? dont get me wrong i want a PS3. im just waiting for a price cut, like i'd imagine everyone else.. but it seems to me sony is gonna be the "losers" this round.. and there is no way theyre selling ps3 for $450 for ateast 3-4 years imo.

In terms of Sony profitability with PS3, You guys are thinking about the top line too much.

If they can make the cost of PS3 < $300 in the next 4-5 months, they'll make a killing even if they make a 200$ price drop. Cell and BR are the largest parts of the cost. If they then sell it at $300 in the next 4-5 months, I can see it encroaching on the Wii, especially if they have a high profile game released.

However, I'm not optimistic about that happening