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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3, how can it win this gen?

The only way PS3 can save face, is if they could pull out a Dreamcast type of run. There is still a cult like following behind the Dreamcast to this day.

The biggest problems I for see for this type of life span for the PS3 though is that Sony doesn't have the AAA calibur of first party titles Sega use to have. Plus, Sony will most likely kill off the PS3 with PS4 in due time.



"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )

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They sure can't afford to drop the price by 50% this year, but that would be the only thing that could put the PS3 back in first place.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

auroragb said:
FishyJoe said:
If it were possible, Sony could build a magic PS3 factory run by Santa's elves. That would get them back on track and Sony could win.
Building a magic factory during the first year of console's life? Hiring away Santa's helpers? You do realise that's utterly impossible?

 Everyone knows that Santa's a wii fanboy anyway! =P

 

The replies are interesting, tbh I would honestly like to see what the rabid temp banned ps3 fanboys have to say about this. Chances are they wouldnt be constructive though (sony doesnt ned to do anythin!! onslaught statrs  in june!!!!!!).

 

The thing is there is so much apathy towards the PS3, nobody is excited about it. Basically the Wii has stolen all of the media hype this generation because its 'different' the 360 has some in America because its American but the PS3 has none whatsoever. Nobodies interested in it.



auroragb said:

In terms of Sony profitability with PS3, You guys are thinking about the top line too much.

If they can make the cost of PS3 < $300 in the next 4-5 months, they'll make a killing even if they make a 200$ price drop. Cell and BR are the largest parts of the cost. If they then sell it at $300 in the next 4-5 months, I can see it encroaching on the Wii, especially if they have a high profile game released.

However, I'm not optimistic about that happening


They've probably accomplished most of the cost cutting they're going to be able to do anytime soon. It takes years to do really effective cost cutting -- IBM has to be able to move to a smaller fabrication process for the Cell, for example, and that will result in some cost reduction (but it will still be an expensive processor). The Blu Ray stuff was approximately $100 to start, so cost reducing that won't result in more than $80 or so in savings.

I don't think Sony will be able to produce the PS3 internally for less than $450 before 2009, very likely even later. Cost reduction isn't magic -- there are certain things that can be reduced certain amounts, and other things (like hard drives) unlikely to reduce significantly. They're already using an inexpensive hard drive, inexpensive wireless, etc.

The PS3 was as close to failure as it could get at launch. There's no way for Sony to get the cost under what the public will pay for it en mass within several years, so they will be taking a significant loss on it for quite some time if they want to get it into homes.  Sony is in a very difficult spot with the PS3: wide spread acceptance is a 50% price reduction away and, at that rate, profitability would be a 150% cost reduciton away.   Futher, it's an esoteric architecture with too little general purpose CPU power that stretches development cycles and budgets.  

 Too many serious engineering mistakes were made.



TheBigFatJ said:
I hate how the editor hates firefox

Too many serious engineering mistakes were made.

Actually, it's not engineering mistakes.  This is what happens when marketing gets to design a product rather than engineering.  Basically, sales promises features and techs that are "sexy" but are too far ahead of practicality.  To realize the features, the engineers have to overcompensate to make it possible.  This overengineering increases manufacturing costs and put Sony in the situation they are in today.

My old boss always said: "Cheap, robust, or fast delivery.  You can choose to have one, at best you can have two, you can never have all three".  That has proven true on ANY project I've worked on or seen.



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>You probably missed that his is a CRT HDTV.<

 I totally missed that, thanks.

 >It most likely does have 1080 lines if it doesn't overscan, and surely displays them natively interlaced as CRTs usually do. Horizontal resolution is another story, as it usually isn't specified for CRTs.<

Yah, and I don't know, but I really doubt those old TV's are 1920 dot capable. 

If they aren't, then they are not really displaying 1080i properly. 

>The rest of your post applies to your TV, and somewhat to LCD HTDVs in general, but not his. Actually a more common resolution for 720p LCDs is 1366x768, not 1366x732. And most 720p LCDs will not degrade 1080i to 480p - they'll deinterlace to 1080p, losing temporal resolution, and then downscale to 720p.<

I was wrongly assuming his TV was 480p and was referring to such a TV (not  referring to 720p becoming 480p)

(I have a friend who has somewhat of a similarly spec'ed TV to the originally noted one)

 The point I was trying to make is that if a TV isn't 1080p, I don't think 1080i is necessarily the best thing to be displaying games in.  I could be wrong there, but 1080i mode in a games display is not any more useful than "blast processing" {smiley}.

 

Thanks for the clarifications. 



First, let's define the players. There are only two players in this generation: 360 and PS3. Nintendo has always stated that the Wii was in a different market, and I totally agree with them. The wii is in the budget conscious, casual gamers market, which also happens to be the demographic I'm in and the demographic that xBox and PS2 are currently in. The wii appealed to me because it could play gamecube games (which I missed out on because I bought the PS2 last generation and couldn't justify buying another console), older VC games (which I grew up with) and of course, the novelty wiimote factor. The games for the Wii will be on par with last and prior generations. With Nintendo finally getting online, it's like they finally are catching up to what the XBox and PS2 could do last gen. Nintendo is still competing in that generation. The wiimote is their delayed answer to the eyetoy (something else I bought). But the wiimote is definitely better and should be a carryforward technology to the next generation, mainly for it's pointing capability, a much needed capability in the Media Center audience (although the motion sensing is nice is SOME games, it doesn't apply in many of the standard type of games and that novelty factor will wear off.) The 360 and PS3 are in the hardcore gamers market, which is the gamers that were driving the market at the height of the last generation (hence why the two big boys increased power & performance). I do think this market can bear the burden of a higher cost machine and games. That's the market this generation of consoles is currently in. Of the two players in this generation, the PS3 will sell the most machines in the end. XBox 360 is too focused on the NA market and the technology will quickly get outdated, replaced in two to three years by the next generation XBox...about the same time as the height of the PS3 movement. PS3 has a broader base, a better machine, and the longer lasting technology. They are just too far ahead of times, so people like me aren't buying them yet because people don't need what the PS3 has to offer. But as the HD technology becomes more mainstream, the price of the PS3 will drop and the PS3 will begin to appeal to the same demographic that I'm in. It took a year for that to happen to the PS2 (not necessarily the price drop, but the move to my demographic), but I predict it'll take two years for that to happen to the PS3. So what does Sony have to do? Absolutely nothing. It's the right machine, just the wrong time. But it will eventually be the right time. Just because developers are moving away from the PS3 now doesn't mean that they can't come back in the future when the time is right. Sony just has to survive (financially) long enough, and they have that capability. But...what they could do to increase appeal is to offer a handheld pointer type remote (a wiimote minus the accelerometers but with BR specific controls) for controlling the media center, internet, and BR player. That would help secure it's rightful place in the living room instead of being relegated to the kid's room. Nobody is going to want to use a two handed controller to watch a BR disc. I don't watch DVDs on the PS2 because of the remote. But I surf the internet and play streaming videos on my Wii because the remote is convenient enough to use (although it could use some improvement). If the Wii played DVDs, it would secure its current location in my living room for a couple of years until living room media controllers become mainstream.



Sony looks to be decreasing PS3 production: http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16288

They are just too far ahead of times, so people like me aren't buying them yet because people don't need what the PS3 has to offer.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say, "they don't provide as much general purpose CPU power as Micorsoft did with the 360, so that's going to cost them in the future." Attempting to overreach with technology is not "ahead of the times."  As auroragb pointed out, the mistakes made were overengineering / compensating for promises made.  However -- marketing didn't set the parameters, Krazy Ken Kutagari did.  He was the lead engineer and the guy who wouldn't shut up about how it would be able to drive 2 1080p displays at 1080p, etc etc.   He either vastly overestimated the power of the cell or certain things turned out to be infeasible he previously assumed were feasible.

 One thing is clear, however, and it is that the Cell is much less well suited toward gaming than Sony would like.  The reason it has so little general purpose power is because it was originally supposed to include two PPC970 cores with SMT instead of one with SMT.  That would have made it far more comperable to the Xbox 360 (which has 3 such cores) and it would have the additional advantage of the SPEs.  While the SPEs have more limited uses in gaming, the cell would make a very interesting processor with 2x the general purpose power as it has now.



i suggest you all wait E3. on Sony Gamer`s Day, sony showed amazing games, and now with 1.80 firmware released, it also showed new ps3 capabilities. just know, that sony definately will show many suprises on E3. anyway, PS3 only half a year on market. Just wait, when it will be 1,5 on it. =) However, if MGS4 won`t show in 07 in NA, and FFXIII in Japan, then yes, there could be some porblems for Sony, because Lair, NGS, Folklore, HS, R&C, Uncharted, LBP, Home, Socom, Haze, Pain, (GTA4, AC) may not be enough for some gamers. So i think, sony understand that too, so on E3 they have to make some announces. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

auroragb said:
Parokki said:

Dropping the cost of making a console by more than half during the first year of its life? Doing a 200$ price drop during the first year? You do realise that's utterly impossible?

There's absolutely no reliable information claiming they're anywhere near getting the cost of production under current retail price, and they sure as hell aren't dropping the price before 2008.

I did say that I'm not optimistic about it happening.

I was just answering the question posited by the OP, which asked what would it take to get PS3 back on track. Can you argue that this would NOT be a way for PS3 to get back on track, if it were possible?



Oupsie. Guess I'm failing at reading comprehension again.

Happy to see we actually agree on things after all. =P