The PS3, how can it win this gen?

[shams]

Yumimi said:
Everyone that says 'The Wii has already won' is missing the point that the Wii is still likely to be replaced before the PS3 will.

This is irrelevant.

Say in 4 years (2010), the Wii  has sold 60m units - and the PS3 30m.

Firstly - based on this scenario - who would be the first to release a new format? It would depend on the weekly sales at that point - but most studios would be focusing on the Wii rather than PS3.

 

Secondly - lets just assume that Nintendo releases the Wii II - and Sony sticks with the PS3. What would happen?

The Wii II would (probably) sell just as crazy as the Wii did - except this time, it would have gfx comparible with the PS3 - and may have some other awesome features/input control. They would be priced similarly, or even with the Wii II being cheaper. The Wii II would run Wii software of course (but probably not GC titles - they could be downloadable this time).

In the next 4 years, the Wii II would sell maybe 50/60m units - and the PS3 another 35m.

...

The PS3 outsells the Wii, and also outsells the Wii II. But who wins? Combined the Wii / Wii II have still DOUBLED the unit sales of the PS3 (over its lifetime). Developers will now be porting PS3 titles to the Wii II (or sequels to the Wii). PS3 is considered "old", with the Xbox 720(?) killing it technically.

Its just like the current situation again... the PS3 becomes the PS2 (just less successful), the Wii II becomes the Wii, and the 720 --> 360. The difference? There is no "equiv" PS3 (the PS3 remains) - and its old, and underpowered.

Sony end up in a worse position than they are now - almost writing themselves out of the industry.

They *have to* release a PS4 around the time the Xbox 720 comes out... or it could really be game over (stuck as the middle console, and just not competitive).