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Forums - Sales - NPD Analyst Expects Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November

 

NPD, Who wins?

Switch! 43 31.62%
 
Xbox! 20 14.71%
 
Playstation! 66 48.53%
 
Ouya! 7 5.15%
 
Total:136
Insidb on 26 November 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:

Going to go out on a limb here and say it's Switch. 

http://twinfinite.net/2017/11/switch-best-selling-black-friday/

Adobe Digital has analyzed “4,500 retail websites” in order to find out what the top five best-selling products were for Black Friday via online stores. The only video game item to enter the top five – at number one, no less – was the Nintendo Switch.

There is also the Business Insider article which notes Nintendo Switch was one of the best selling products. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-switch-popular-on-black-friday-2017-11

So I think this combined looks like Switch may be top. I will also add that Playstation had a bundle with Battlefront II and, from what I'm seeing, they aren't selling. Could hurt sales, but its hard to tell what impact it will have, if any. 

This wouldn't be shocking for online sales: the PS4 went on sale 4 days prior and was sold out online by BF, well before the sale ends tomorrow.



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VideoGameAccountant on 26 November 2017
Insidb said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Going to go out on a limb here and say it's Switch. 

http://twinfinite.net/2017/11/switch-best-selling-black-friday/

Adobe Digital has analyzed “4,500 retail websites” in order to find out what the top five best-selling products were for Black Friday via online stores. The only video game item to enter the top five – at number one, no less – was the Nintendo Switch.

There is also the Business Insider article which notes Nintendo Switch was one of the best selling products. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-switch-popular-on-black-friday-2017-11

So I think this combined looks like Switch may be top. I will also add that Playstation had a bundle with Battlefront II and, from what I'm seeing, they aren't selling. Could hurt sales, but its hard to tell what impact it will have, if any. 

This wouldn't be shocking for online sales: the PS4 went on sale 4 days prior and was sold out online by BF, well before the sale ends tomorrow.

Adobe also did Veteran's day and the two days before Black Friday. Switch was in the top 5 in all of them and top the day of Thanksgiving. It's the only video game system in there.

As IronmanDX noted, it is limited since Adobe was just digital, but from what Business Insider is noting as well, it seems like Switch did well at the doorbusters too. It could be enough to propel it to the top of the NPD.



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Insidb on 26 November 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
Insidb said:

This wouldn't be shocking for online sales: the PS4 went on sale 4 days prior and was sold out online by BF, well before the sale ends tomorrow.

Adobe also did Veteran's day and the two days before Black Friday. Switch was in the top 5 in all of them and top the day of Thanksgiving. It's the only video game system in there.

As IronmanDX noted, it is limited since Adobe was just digital, but from what Business Insider is noting as well, it seems like Switch did well at the doorbusters too. It could be enough to propel it to the top of the NPD.

That Adobe poll is also extremely suspect: somehow, on 11/22, while PS4 was $199 and literally selling out, they had PSVR in the top 5 with PS4 nowhere to be found.

That makes no sense at all.



Zekkyou on 26 November 2017
ironmanDX said:
thismeintiel said:

Might want to check your memory there, buddy.  Pro was not announced at E3.  Sony had their own little conference in Sept to announce the Pro.  Then, two months later it was launched.  And many doesn't mean all.  It doesn't even have to mean a majority.  The point still stands.  The leap from PS4 to Pro was smaller, and deemed less necessary, by gamers and the company that made it.  MS, on the other hand, advertised it like the next revolution in gaming was here.

Hmm, yeah. My memory did fail me there. I blame it on your Hulk Kazogan avy. I fear that leg drop.

I didn't say or imply all. Surely though, if the pro was constrained and had little hype the "many" and "disgruntled" xbox one owners would have been able to hit a higher target then 600k especially so if Microsoft did in fact drum up the xbox one x as the next revolution in gaming? Surely? Or was it just a upgraded xbox one just like they said it was?

You can't have your cake and eat it too. They're both more expansive upgrades of existing hardware using the same software, play the same games and use the same accessories as their respective predecessors. If we can't compare them with each other then where does it end? Not comparing xbox one and ps4 with the Switch because it's a hybrid? Hell no. (Not that you're saying that but it does set precedence) The comparison is valid.

We absolutely can (and should) compare the Pro and X1X, but it's fair to say that there are currently significant limits to the conclusions that we can pull from those comparisons. The Pro was given much less build up (it only had a few months in the spotlight before launch, compared to a multi-stage reveal across 1.5~ years for the X1X), its initial shipments appear to have been relatively limited (it sold out in various places despite what seem to be fairly tame launch numbers), and Sony were pretty careful with how they marketed the Pro (i assume so as not to alienate current PS4 owners). Saying MS marketed the X1X as the "next revolution in gaming " is hyperbolic in my opinion, but they certainly pushed it harder than Sony did the Pro. Why wouldn't they? They're risking a higher price and later release, while also playing from behind. They have a lot more to gain from the X1X than Sony did the Pro.

On the other hand, we also have to consider that the X1X has faced considerably more competition than the Pro did. Even ignoring the Switch (which so far seems to be operating in its own bubble), the X1X is competing against some seriously good PS4 and X1 deals, and the Pro at $350 + a game. The latter is particularly substantial because even if someone is 100% neutral on owning either an X1 or PS4, and they wanted the better versions, they then have to value the X1X's power advantage at $150 - $200 (the price of an X1 or PS4).

As things stand i don't think we have enough information to be able to weight any of these factors. Hell, this thread itself is discussing a prediction. I personally hope the X1X does do better, at minimum on a ratio level. I'm fairly happy with my Pro, and unfortunately i'll never own an X1X for a variety of reasons, but i think the X1X is a much better approach to mid-gen upgrades. It doing well will hopefully encourage Sony to follow that approach in the future.



leo-j on 26 November 2017

Wouldn’t surprise me if the ps4 pro sold close to as much as the one x during November....

349 and a sold out 199 ps4 meant that was the definite best 2nd option imo



 

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reviniente on 26 November 2017
thismeintiel said:
Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.

Sure, why not.



Intrinsic on 26 November 2017

Wait.... are we arguing about the success of the pro version the XB1x? like is that now a thing?

so let me understand something. PS4s+PS4Pro = PS4. When any publisher that sells 1M games for the PS4 they get the same money. No designation whatsoever if that games was bought by a PS4s or a PS4pro owner.

XB1s+XB1X = XB1. same thing with above applies here.

PS4 = 60M

XB1= 30M

so whats the argument about exactly?

how about we try this.... let's even say that by some miracle the 30M XB1 sales are 90% XB1x and the 60M PS4 sales are only 10% PS4pro. So that's a win for MS right?

yaay.... I guess.

 

and doesn't this happen around this time every year? MS has some sort of decent sales around November and December then sales drop like a rock in January and through out the year. just look what wonders that's done for them these past 4yrs. I mean the NS.... the weakest console on the market is probably gonna pass it by 2019. How's that for power?



ironmanDX on 27 November 2017
Intrinsic said:

Wait.... are we arguing about the success of the pro version the XB1x? like is that now a thing?

so let me understand something. PS4s+PS4Pro = PS4. When any publisher that sells 1M games for the PS4 they get the same money. No designation whatsoever if that games was bought by a PS4s or a PS4pro owner.

XB1s+XB1X = XB1. same thing with above applies here.

PS4 = 60M

XB1= 30M

so whats the argument about exactly?

how about we try this.... let's even say that by some miracle the 30M XB1 sales are 90% XB1x and the 60M PS4 sales are only 10% PS4pro. So that's a win for MS right?

yaay.... I guess.

 

and doesn't this happen around this time every year? MS has some sort of decent sales around November and December then sales drop like a rock in January and through out the year. just look what wonders that's done for them these past 4yrs. I mean the NS.... the weakest console on the market is probably gonna pass it by 2019. How's that for power?

That's not what we're arguing about... At all.

 

Assuming that you are referring to me, of course.



EricHiggin on 27 November 2017
hudsoniscool said:

It's most likely going to trend downward again. It sells well in the holidays but weak the rest of the year. I think the reason is obvious. During the slow 9 1/2 months games push sales and with Xbox behind in that area it will likely happen again. Although 2018 does look very good for Xbox games compared to the last 3-5 years. They need to be good though. State of decay 2 needs to be good, so does crackdown3, sea of theives, ori 2, forza horizon 4, ashen, and halo 6(assuming it's 2018). If those games are good plus they get 1-2 more solid games(not announced yet) then they could be just fine. And rdr2, and anthem showing the difference between pro and the X will help too.

XB will no doubt have to up their game in terms of quality first party titles. They can't rely solely on their new hardware for too long.

thismeintiel said:
Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.

Pro is like the first rocket sent into orbit. How many people really wanted to be in that can and take that chance? Very few. Why? It was a brand new idea and the outcome was unknown.

XB1X is like the rockets that went up after they sent a monkey on board and proved it could live unharmed. How many people wanted to take part in that afterwards? A lot more.

Pro and XB1X can be compared, just not in the same way that PS4 and XB1 were.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.

thismeintiel on 27 November 2017
Insidb said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Adobe also did Veteran's day and the two days before Black Friday. Switch was in the top 5 in all of them and top the day of Thanksgiving. It's the only video game system in there.

As IronmanDX noted, it is limited since Adobe was just digital, but from what Business Insider is noting as well, it seems like Switch did well at the doorbusters too. It could be enough to propel it to the top of the NPD.

That Adobe poll is also extremely suspect: somehow, on 11/22, while PS4 was $199 and literally selling out, they had PSVR in the top 5 with PS4 nowhere to be found.

That makes no sense at all.

Exactly what I was thinking.  And 4,500 retailer websites?  They must be talking WW, or pulling a number out of their ass, cause the US doesn't have 4,500 retailers with online websites.

ironmanDX said:
thismeintiel said:

Might want to check your memory there, buddy.  Pro was not announced at E3.  Sony had their own little conference in Sept to announce the Pro.  Then, two months later it was launched.  And many doesn't mean all.  It doesn't even have to mean a majority.  The point still stands.  The leap from PS4 to Pro was smaller, and deemed less necessary, by gamers and the company that made it.  MS, on the other hand, advertised it like the next revolution in gaming was here.

Hmm, yeah. My memory did fail me there. I blame it on your Hulk Kazogan avy. I fear that leg drop.

 
I didn't say or imply all. Surely though, if the pro was constrained and had little hype the "many" and "disgruntled" xbox one owners would have been able to hit a higher target then 600k especially so if Microsoft did in fact drum up the xbox one x as the next revolution in gaming? Surely? Or was it just a upgraded xbox one just like they said it was?

 

You can't have your cake and eat it too. They're both more expansive upgrades of existing hardware using the same software, play the same games and use the same accessories as their respective predecessors. If we can't compare them with each other then where does it end? Not comparing xbox one and ps4 with the Switch because it's a hybrid? Hell no. (Not that you're saying that but it does set precedence) The comparison is valid.

The leg drop is mighty from Kaz.

And I never said they couldn't be compared.  I just said it isn't exactly apples to apples.  Context is key.  I mean, one of the biggest things really is if Sony had some way of judging demand better, their numbers could have easily been quite a bit higher.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 27 November 2017