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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD Analyst Expects Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November

 

NPD, Who wins?

Switch! 43 31.62%
 
Xbox! 20 14.71%
 
Playstation! 66 48.53%
 
Ouya! 7 5.15%
 
Total:136
ironmanDX said:
Angelv577 said:

Does it really matter if the X outsell the pro? really? The ps4 pro only sell 20% of total sales.  Just selling a bit more than that won't do much past holidays because you know the xb1 s sales will go down after holidays unless they keep the 189 price permanent.  If the xb1 X doesn't make up for that difference NPD will continue to be switch> ps4> xb1.

In the whole picture of the generation, no. I don't see any problem comparing the launch period of one "premium" console to the other though.

I don't see the problem either but at the end of the day, both ps4 pro and X are part of the same gen, same family.  



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hudsoniscool said:
Angelv577 said:

Does it really matter if the X outsell the pro? really? The ps4 pro only sell 20% of total sales.  Just selling a bit more than that won't do much past holidays because you know the xb1 s sales will go down after holidays unless they keep the 189 price permanent.  If the xb1 X doesn't make up for that difference NPD will continue to be switch> ps4> xb1.

For Xbox to win npd's in the first 10 months next year it will basically need the x to have at least 40% of all its sales which won't happen. What Xbox needs to win non holiday months is more/better games. 

I agree.



Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.



thismeintiel said:
Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.

They both were announced at E3. If one was low key, so then must be the other. The X was announced as being part of the xbox one family. All games and accessories were compatible with the both X and S... So.. No. It was marketed as a premium xbox one with a premium price. It did have more time to drum up some hype though.


If many XBO gamers are tired of 720p-900p then the figures should be way higher than 600k. A mere 120k more than a supply constrained pro during the busiest shopping period of the year? No chance.



ironmanDX said:
thismeintiel said:
Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.

They both were announced at E3. If one was low key, so then must be the other. The X was announced as being part of the xbox one family. All games and accessories were compatible with the both X and S... So.. No. It was marketed as a premium xbox one with a premium price. It did have more time to drum up some hype though.


If many XBO gamers are tired of 720p-900p then the figures should be way higher than 600k. A mere 120k more than a supply constrained pro during the busiest shopping period of the year? No chance.

Might want to check your memory there, buddy.  Pro was not announced at E3.  Sony had their own little conference in Sept to announce the Pro.  Then, two months later it was launched.  And many doesn't mean all.  It doesn't even have to mean a majority.  The point still stands.  The leap from PS4 to Pro was smaller, and deemed less necessary, by gamers and the company that made it.  MS, on the other hand, advertised it like the next revolution in gaming was here.



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In the UK One X sales are already grinding to a halt. It's been out of Amazon's top 100 for 2 weeks and has received its first price cut. It's difficult to see a path forward without major discounts or bundles. The past week Pro has been trending well above One X, no doubt due to a £100+ price difference and bundled games.



ironmanDX said:
thismeintiel said:
Pro to X isn't exactly an apples to apples.

First of all, the Pro announcement/launch was much more low key than the X. It was advertised as an unnecessary item, that was mainly a nice upgrade for the more avid gamer, while the X was basically marketed as a new generation in gaming. Second, the Pro was launched just a few weeks after its announcement, while the X had more than an entire year to build up hype, and 3 months worth of preorders. Third, many felt they didn't need to jump to the Pro, as they were still getting 1080p in most of their games. Many XBO gamers were tired of settling for 720p-900p on a lot of their games, so the jump to X was highly sought.

Finally, and most importantly, Sony completely underestimated the demand for the Pro. It was in and out of stock for the last bit of '16 and the beginning of '17. MS had quite a bit more time to gauge demand and has not had the same stock issues that the Pro did.

They both were announced at E3. If one was low key, so then must be the other. The X was announced as being part of the xbox one family. All games and accessories were compatible with the both X and S... So.. No. It was marketed as a premium xbox one with a premium price. It did have more time to drum up some hype though.


If many XBO gamers are tired of 720p-900p then the figures should be way higher than 600k. A mere 120k more than a supply constrained pro during the busiest shopping period of the year? No chance.

There's also 1 big difference as well on the other side. When pro launched it was 249-299 for a PS4 and only 399 for the pro. That's not a hard sell. Upgrading to a much stronger system for 100$. This year the difference between the xb1s and x is 250-300$. That's a hard sell no matter how big of a upgrade. The fact that it's on pace to "blow by" 600k in the US is very impressive to me when the pro only did 500k in the same time frame.

Storeman67 said:

In the UK One X sales are already grinding to a halt. It's been out of Amazon's top 100 for 2 weeks and has received its first price cut. It's difficult to see a path forward without major discounts or bundles. The past week Pro has been trending well above One X, no doubt due to a £100+ price difference and bundled games.

Before we start calling doom let's wait for some numbers because it did really well in its first week.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

thismeintiel said:
ironmanDX said:

They both were announced at E3. If one was low key, so then must be the other. The X was announced as being part of the xbox one family. All games and accessories were compatible with the both X and S... So.. No. It was marketed as a premium xbox one with a premium price. It did have more time to drum up some hype though.


If many XBO gamers are tired of 720p-900p then the figures should be way higher than 600k. A mere 120k more than a supply constrained pro during the busiest shopping period of the year? No chance.

Might want to check your memory there, buddy.  Pro was not announced at E3.  Sony had their own little conference in Sept to announce the Pro.  Then, two months later it was launched.  And many doesn't mean all.  It doesn't even have to mean a majority.  The point still stands.  The leap from PS4 to Pro was smaller, and deemed less necessary, by gamers and the company that made it.  MS, on the other hand, advertised it like the next revolution in gaming was here.

Hmm, yeah. My memory did fail me there. I blame it on your Hulk Kazogan avy. I fear that leg drop.

 
I didn't say or imply all. Surely though, if the pro was constrained and had little hype the "many" and "disgruntled" xbox one owners would have been able to hit a higher target then 600k especially so if Microsoft did in fact drum up the xbox one x as the next revolution in gaming? Surely? Or was it just a upgraded xbox one just like they said it was?

 

You can't have your cake and eat it too. They're both more expansive upgrades of existing hardware using the same software, play the same games and use the same accessories as their respective predecessors. If we can't compare them with each other then where does it end? Not comparing xbox one and ps4 with the Switch because it's a hybrid? Hell no. (Not that you're saying that but it does set precedence) The comparison is valid.



Going to go out on a limb here and say it's Switch. 

http://twinfinite.net/2017/11/switch-best-selling-black-friday/

Adobe Digital has analyzed “4,500 retail websites” in order to find out what the top five best-selling products were for Black Friday via online stores. The only video game item to enter the top five – at number one, no less – was the Nintendo Switch.

There is also the Business Insider article which notes Nintendo Switch was one of the best selling products. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-switch-popular-on-black-friday-2017-11

So I think this combined looks like Switch may be top. I will also add that Playstation had a bundle with Battlefront II and, from what I'm seeing, they aren't selling. Could hurt sales, but its hard to tell what impact it will have, if any. 



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VideoGameAccountant said:

Going to go out on a limb here and say it's Switch. 

http://twinfinite.net/2017/11/switch-best-selling-black-friday/

Adobe Digital has analyzed “4,500 retail websites” in order to find out what the top five best-selling products were for Black Friday via online stores. The only video game item to enter the top five – at number one, no less – was the Nintendo Switch.

There is also the Business Insider article which notes Nintendo Switch was one of the best selling products. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-switch-popular-on-black-friday-2017-11

So I think this combined looks like Switch may be top. I will also add that Playstation had a bundle with Battlefront II and, from what I'm seeing, they aren't selling. Could hurt sales, but its hard to tell what impact it will have, if any. 

The Adobe prediction is without a doubt the most comprehensive prediction we have thus far. It's only flaw is that it doesn't consider pre orders and brick and mortar stores. The door busters is typically what black Friday is known for.