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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2017 predictions thread

 

Which console will win the month

NSW 28 30.11%
 
PS4 52 55.91%
 
XB1 13 13.98%
 
Total:93
jason1637 on 26 November 2017

XB1: 1380k
PS4: 1300k
NS: 1000k



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barneystinson69 on 26 November 2017

XB1 (With XB1X): 1,350,000

PS4 (With PS4 Pro): 1,300,000

NSW: 1,100,000



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Matsku on 26 November 2017

[NS] 1150k
[PS4] 1100k
[XB1] 1050k

I think it will be like this because Switch was the most sought after item on black friday according to adobe analytics



Matsku on 28 November 2017
quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

You expect a 30% increase in PS4's in Novemeber over last year? When it has more competition than ever?

You expect it to sell nearly twice of the Switch? Even with supply issues that is pretty .... ambitious?

umm ps4 has a huge amount of stock, and the fact thats it's selling out online is telling me it will have it's best november ever, because it has no business selling out, unless it's selling a insane amount. switch is surprising i don't think nintendo shipped that much, maybe a million at most, and it's still available every where online.

According to adobe analytics it did sell the most of any products on black friday



Insidb on 28 November 2017
Matsku said:
quickrick said:

umm ps4 has a huge amount of stock, and the fact thats it's selling out online is telling me it will have it's best november ever, because it has no business selling out, unless it's selling a insane amount. switch is surprising i don't think nintendo shipped that much, maybe a million at most, and it's still available every where online.

According to adobe analytics it did sell the most of any products on black friday

That was an online estimate: it may be wrong, but they've been wrong before and some of their 2017 data is absolutely inaccurate.



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quickrick on 28 November 2017
Insidb said:
Matsku said:

According to adobe analytics it did sell the most of any products on black friday

That was an online estimate: it may be wrong, but they've been wrong before and some of their 2017 data is absolutely inaccurate.

Something is not right about that survey, gamestop, best buy, and amazon best sellers list switch was last. 



Insidb on 28 November 2017
quickrick said:
Insidb said:

That was an online estimate: it may be wrong, but they've been wrong before and some of their 2017 data is absolutely inaccurate.

Something is not right about that survey, gamestop, best buy, and amazon best sellers list switch was last. 

All I know for sure is that they have 11/21 astoundingly wrong, which makes me question their methodology.



reviniente on 28 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
[PS4] 1300K
[NSW] 1100K
[XB1] 950K

Why am I not surprised?



reviniente on 28 November 2017
thismeintiel said:
celador said:

maybe, but the PS4 did fuck all for the first 3/4 of the months compared to the Switch consistently being much higher and the X1 having X preorders. It might win BF week, but still just come third.

and speaking of 'LOL' your PS4 prediction is ridiculous

I wouldn't say his prediction is ridiculous.  A little high, maybe, but not out of the realm of possibility.  Sony put out a shit ton of PS4's this week.  It's pretty obvious with how long it stayed at #1 and #2, plus how quickly it became the number one HW in the monthlies and rose in the yearlies on Amazon.  Judging by those yearlies, it's already covered whatever the X sold, even with preorders.  Which leaves the PS4 preorders and other SKUs (Slim and Pro) to combat the S. And other online sites show similar results.

More importantly, Sony has made sure to get a shit ton in physical retailers.  Insiders have said so, and I know my local Walmart seemed to have 50%-60% more PS4 stock than XBOs.  Remember they were trying to have enough stock for an entire weeks worth at a BF price.  Yet they still sold out with 3-4 days still left in the week.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

You expect a 30% increase in PS4's in Novemeber over last year? When it has more competition than ever?

You expect it to sell nearly twice of the Switch? Even with supply issues that is pretty .... ambitious?

See above.  The 30% increase is not impossible, though, I personally doubt it.  I also think the Switch will be closer than he thinks, but, again, not impossible.

Nothing is certain, though. Right now (11.28@19:30ET), that discounted $199 PS4 slim is sitting at #47. The $189 Xbox One S is at #43. Yearly.



Insidb on 28 November 2017
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:

I wouldn't say his prediction is ridiculous.  A little high, maybe, but not out of the realm of possibility.  Sony put out a shit ton of PS4's this week.  It's pretty obvious with how long it stayed at #1 and #2, plus how quickly it became the number one HW in the monthlies and rose in the yearlies on Amazon.  Judging by those yearlies, it's already covered whatever the X sold, even with preorders.  Which leaves the PS4 preorders and other SKUs (Slim and Pro) to combat the S. And other online sites show similar results.

More importantly, Sony has made sure to get a shit ton in physical retailers.  Insiders have said so, and I know my local Walmart seemed to have 50%-60% more PS4 stock than XBOs.  Remember they were trying to have enough stock for an entire weeks worth at a BF price.  Yet they still sold out with 3-4 days still left in the week.

See above.  The 30% increase is not impossible, though, I personally doubt it.  I also think the Switch will be closer than he thinks, but, again, not impossible.

Nothing is certain, though. Right now (11.28@19:30ET), that discounted $199 PS4 slim is sitting at #47. The $189 Xbox One S is at #43. Yearly.

Yeah, but PS4 was ahead when November NPD ended, for a few days.

I still wouldn't necessarily take that to the bank, anyway.