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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2017 predictions thread

 

Which console will win the month

NSW 28 30.11%
 
PS4 52 55.91%
 
XB1 13 13.98%
 
Total:93

When is the November NPD announced, anyway?



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reviniente said:
When is the November NPD announced, anyway?

NPD physical release: Thursday, December 7th @ 4pm est. 



Insidb said:
Matsku said:

According to adobe analytics it did sell the most of any products on black friday

That was an online estimate: it may be wrong, but they've been wrong before and some of their 2017 data is absolutely inaccurate.

The Ps4 wasn't even in the top 5



reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:

I wouldn't say his prediction is ridiculous.  A little high, maybe, but not out of the realm of possibility.  Sony put out a shit ton of PS4's this week.  It's pretty obvious with how long it stayed at #1 and #2, plus how quickly it became the number one HW in the monthlies and rose in the yearlies on Amazon.  Judging by those yearlies, it's already covered whatever the X sold, even with preorders.  Which leaves the PS4 preorders and other SKUs (Slim and Pro) to combat the S. And other online sites show similar results.

More importantly, Sony has made sure to get a shit ton in physical retailers.  Insiders have said so, and I know my local Walmart seemed to have 50%-60% more PS4 stock than XBOs.  Remember they were trying to have enough stock for an entire weeks worth at a BF price.  Yet they still sold out with 3-4 days still left in the week.

See above.  The 30% increase is not impossible, though, I personally doubt it.  I also think the Switch will be closer than he thinks, but, again, not impossible.

Nothing is certain, though. Right now (11.28@19:30ET), that discounted $199 PS4 slim is sitting at #47. The $189 Xbox One S is at #43. Yearly.

And the Switch 12th and 20th so at least 10 if you count all bundles.



Matsku said:
Insidb said:

That was an online estimate: it may be wrong, but they've been wrong before and some of their 2017 data is absolutely inaccurate.

The Ps4 wasn't even in the top 5

Which is extremely suspect.



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Insidb said:
Matsku said:

The Ps4 wasn't even in the top 5

Which is extremely suspect.

That survey is trash, ps4 was the top of the best seller list on best buy, amazon, and gamestop, yet ps4 doesn't even make the list. best buy said ps4 was the best sellig item at 199$ in terms of dollar value, same for walmart on cyber monday.



quickrick said:

 

Insidb said:

Which is extremely suspect.

That survey is trash, ps4 was the top of the best seller list on best buy, amazon, and gamestop, yet ps4 doesn't even make the list. best buy said ps4 was the best sellig item at 199$ in terms of dollar value, same for walmart on cyber monday.

Without access to their data, it's virtually impossible for us to extract anything of value from it.



Everyone is saying PS4 will beat Switch, so I'll mix it up a bit a say Nintendo Switch. Here's why:

What everyone is ignoring in this thread is Cyber Monday. Adobe puts Nintendo Switch at the top of cyber Monday and doing very well during Black Friday, especially in online sales. Cyber Monday still generated over 6 billion in spending this year. According to Adobe (which tracks 80 percent of online retailers), Switch was the best selling system that day. Other reports are saying the Switch did very well during Black Friday as well and Adobe put it as the best selling system on Veterans day as well.

I think the focus is that because Sony had their best Black Friday that they'll be on top, but keep in mind that Black Friday spending as increased overall. By almost every metric, this year's buying season was up (https://www.forbes.com/sites/nikkibaird/2017/11/30/black-friday-weekend-cyber-week-round-up-of-results/#63968f407e7b). Sony's strong BF was also due to a steep discount, but we can't ignore the economic impact which will also benefit Switch. 

I'll note that a lot of people here don't like Adobe because Amazon says something different, but keep in mind that we are talking about different data. Adobe measures 80% of online spending and Amazon makes up only 40 percent of online spending, not 100%. You aren't going to get every single report to match up perfectly because all of it is incomplete data. I should also that every major firm uses Adobe's report, so I don't think we can say the data is bad. 

My prediction is NSW>PS4>XB1. Whichever way it goes, XBox will be third of the three. Nintendo will account for a good deal of hardware spending (round 40%) due to the SNES Classic and 3DS. Switch total sales will still be below PS4 YTD sales. 



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Cyber Monday is in December npd...



tak13 said:
Cyber Monday is in December npd...

What's the cutoff then? Thanksgiving was early this year so I would think that it would fall in there, or do they not track the last week of the month?



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