November NPD 2017 predictions thread

[VideoGameAccountant]

Everyone is saying PS4 will beat Switch, so I'll mix it up a bit a say Nintendo Switch. Here's why:

What everyone is ignoring in this thread is Cyber Monday. Adobe puts Nintendo Switch at the top of cyber Monday and doing very well during Black Friday, especially in online sales. Cyber Monday still generated over 6 billion in spending this year. According to Adobe (which tracks 80 percent of online retailers), Switch was the best selling system that day. Other reports are saying the Switch did very well during Black Friday as well and Adobe put it as the best selling system on Veterans day as well.

I think the focus is that because Sony had their best Black Friday that they'll be on top, but keep in mind that Black Friday spending as increased overall. By almost every metric, this year's buying season was up (https://www.forbes.com/sites/nikkibaird/2017/11/30/black-friday-weekend-cyber-week-round-up-of-results/#63968f407e7b). Sony's strong BF was also due to a steep discount, but we can't ignore the economic impact which will also benefit Switch. 

I'll note that a lot of people here don't like Adobe because Amazon says something different, but keep in mind that we are talking about different data. Adobe measures 80% of online spending and Amazon makes up only 40 percent of online spending, not 100%. You aren't going to get every single report to match up perfectly because all of it is incomplete data. I should also that every major firm uses Adobe's report, so I don't think we can say the data is bad. 

My prediction is NSW>PS4>XB1. Whichever way it goes, XBox will be third of the three. Nintendo will account for a good deal of hardware spending (round 40%) due to the SNES Classic and 3DS. Switch total sales will still be below PS4 YTD sales.