Take MGS V off that list and you have a very plausible bet.

Not a single new third party game? Only ports of games already released?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your wording, but Nintendo did not put out all their biggest series this year. Animal Crossing, Pokemon (which you later acknowledge making this more silly), an original Mario Kart, and 2D Mario are still available, plus Zelda and Odyssey are undoubtedly going to see sequels. No way it'd suddenly dry up considering they have so many unused series and are actually getting semi-decent third party support. And you can't just have big name games but with months of nothingness inbetween. The smaller titles are very much necessary for keeping hype n momentum.

Nintendo had to bring a lot of the big guns the first year because they couldn't afford a slow start after the Wii U, but now that they've gotten great momentum they don't have to have 4 huge guns every year, just 2 or even 1 can suffice as long as there are plenty of other games releasing each year.

Like I said these are my bets, nothing prevents you guys from creating a list too. :)

And it is quite difficult to predict unannounced games from third parties, so I went to a safer side and of course metal gear and tokyo mirage are more personal desires than reality.

U did not rewrite Wii U's history. I said a console is quantified by its games. Wii U has good games? Then the console is worth purchasing. That is not revisionist history; rather, that is the fact. 

Software sells hardware is certainly a true statement but there is alot more to it than just that.

Software output, marketing/advertising, hardware concept, brand/image & price are extremely important in selling a device.

Software output-Wii U frequently had multiple month long droughts between major releases while Switch has had a major 1st/2nd party exclusive basically every month along with a ton of smaller $15-20 indie titles to fill in short gaps.

Marketing/Advertising-Wii U was almost exclusively marketed towards families on childrens networks while Switch is aimed at multiple demographics and advertised all over the place.

Hardware concept-The gamepad really added nothing new or exciting and could only be taken a room or two away from the console which made it come off as a gimmick while the ability to seamlessy transition from home to handheld play is a desirable feature and well executed.

Brand/image-Wii U gamepad had the appearance of a cheap educational children's tablet and was commonly mistaken as an expensive Wii add-on while Switch looks like a sleek and modern device with its own brand.

Price-You may be thinking, "Wii U & Switch both cost $299, how is that good for one but bad for the other?" Well this one relies on the other 4 points. If a device has a steady flow of desirable software, is well marketed, has interesting special features and an attractive form factor than $299 is a solid price but if all those things are lacking than it will be deemed too high.

Let's also not forget that Nintendo's brand had decayed substantially by the time the Wii U launched as had the Wii brand.  Nintendo had all but stopped marketing during the second half of the seventh gen, allowing their image to go completely out of their hands.  And thus despite closing out the Wii with cult clasic Pandora's Tower, a high-production value RPG from the creator of Final Fantasy in The Last Story, and a well received Zelda game, the Wii was almost universally mocked as a super-casual dust collector and Nintendo as a hyper-casual company for children and soccer mom's.  Basically, if you don't write the narrative about your brand, others will.  And that's exactly what happened.  

So Nintendo walked into the Wii U with a gutted brand.

Also, another thing about price:  as a home console, it is easily outclassed at 299.  But as a portable device, you *cannot* match it for that price off the shelf.  You will spend markedly more to get a comparable experience.  So it's actually a good value from that perspective.  And the switching aspect adds value.  

It's the fastest route to getting Smash Bros. on the Switch and Smash 4 is already *ahem* smashing with content and incredible fanfare that would make any gamer wet him/herself. 
The community generally feels that Smash Wii U in particular had its legs cut short, and find it quite a shame since it's nearly unanimously agreed that out of the two versions, the Wii U one is the superior, definitive verison (though Smash 3DS has its' pros as well). 

Meanwhile, a brand new Smash Bros. game from scratch would be at least 3-4 years of development and resources if they started today, that puts Smash 5 at around 2020/2021, and I don't think the community doesn't want to wait that long for a new Smash Bros. on the Switch. At that point, Switch 2 would be looming so, Nintendo might even push it even further back to meet the launch of that system.
Additionally, developing and directing Smash 4 took a huge toll on Sakurai, the man was in a sling, working with one arm trying to develop the game. So it's understandable if he's quite burned out and not particularly eager to get back on the helm for a new Smash Bros. just yet. 

Thus, porting the latest version that everyone still clearly cares about makes the most logical and efficient sense. It clearly worked with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.  So