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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo Sport sales prediction

Kemono on 07 October 2017

FW 1.3-1.5 M
FY 3.8- 4.0 M
LT 6.5-7.0 M
Low Hype - Low Sales.



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KBG29 on 07 October 2017
barneystinson69 said:

I would say less than 6M LT with digital. GT isn't the massive franchise it once was, and that is reflected with my estimate. But I could totally be wrong.

People were actually saying the same thing about Grand Theft Auto 5. Call of Duty and Assasins Creed had grown so big after GTA4 some thought that GTA's long production cycle, and time out of the lime light would result in it lossing its sales power. I think the same thing will happen with GTS.

People are forgetting just how big of a deal GT is. I have a lot of PlayStation friends that have still not moved to PS4 because they are waiting for GTS. These are people that still play GT6 on the regular. 

I think GT6's pore performance is going to cause some low predictions here. The thing is, GT6 was released at a terrible time. I have owned every GT since the first, including Prologues, and I didn't even buy GT6. GTS is going to far exceed GT6, and that is a gaurantee.

My Prediction:

First Week - 3.2M

End Of 2017 - 7M

Total Lifetime - 18M

I see it selling well right out the gate, because people have been starved of GT for 4 years. The 5 Million that picked up GT6 against all odds, will jump into GTS very quickly. Then you will have a lot huge amount of people that skiped GT6 returning to the series. As the game grows, with new cars, tracks, challanges, and much more, old fans that are nervous about a new GT will finally jump in, and as the e-sport portion grows, a whole new group of younger gamers will join in, as they attempt to make a name in both virtual and real racing. 

Just like Grand Theft Auto, I expect Gran Turismo will return, and re-establish its dominance. Not only will it outsell all other sim racers, it will set a new high mark for the series. 



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DonFerrari on 07 October 2017
KBG29 said:
barneystinson69 said:

I would say less than 6M LT with digital. GT isn't the massive franchise it once was, and that is reflected with my estimate. But I could totally be wrong.

People were actually saying the same thing about Grand Theft Auto 5. Call of Duty and Assasins Creed had grown so big after GTA4 some thought that GTA's long production cycle, and time out of the lime light would result in it lossing its sales power. I think the same thing will happen with GTS.

People are forgetting just how big of a deal GT is. I have a lot of PlayStation friends that have still not moved to PS4 because they are waiting for GTS. These are people that still play GT6 on the regular. 

I think GT6's pore performance is going to cause some low predictions here. The thing is, GT6 was released at a terrible time. I have owned every GT since the first, including Prologues, and I didn't even buy GT6. GTS is going to far exceed GT6, and that is a gaurantee.

My Prediction:

First Week - 3.2M

End Of 2017 - 7M

Total Lifetime - 18M

I see it selling well right out the gate, because people have been starved of GT for 4 years. The 5 Million that picked up GT6 against all odds, will jump into GTS very quickly. Then you will have a lot huge amount of people that skiped GT6 returning to the series. As the game grows, with new cars, tracks, challanges, and much more, old fans that are nervous about a new GT will finally jump in, and as the e-sport portion grows, a whole new group of younger gamers will join in, as they attempt to make a name in both virtual and real racing. 

Just like Grand Theft Auto, I expect Gran Turismo will return, and re-establish its dominance. Not only will it outsell all other sim racers, it will set a new high mark for the series. 

I like your optimism, so let's the golden time for GT comes in force. Which I was a better driver.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Farsala on 07 October 2017

7m LTD with over 50% from Europe.



Normchacho on 07 October 2017
KBG29 said:
barneystinson69 said:

I would say less than 6M LT with digital. GT isn't the massive franchise it once was, and that is reflected with my estimate. But I could totally be wrong.

People were actually saying the same thing about Grand Theft Auto 5. Call of Duty and Assasins Creed had grown so big after GTA4 some thought that GTA's long production cycle, and time out of the lime light would result in it lossing its sales power. I think the same thing will happen with GTS.

People are forgetting just how big of a deal GT is. I have a lot of PlayStation friends that have still not moved to PS4 because they are waiting for GTS. These are people that still play GT6 on the regular. 

I think GT6's pore performance is going to cause some low predictions here. The thing is, GT6 was released at a terrible time. I have owned every GT since the first, including Prologues, and I didn't even buy GT6. GTS is going to far exceed GT6, and that is a gaurantee.

My Prediction:

First Week - 3.2M

End Of 2017 - 7M

Total Lifetime - 18M

I see it selling well right out the gate, because people have been starved of GT for 4 years. The 5 Million that picked up GT6 against all odds, will jump into GTS very quickly. Then you will have a lot huge amount of people that skiped GT6 returning to the series. As the game grows, with new cars, tracks, challanges, and much more, old fans that are nervous about a new GT will finally jump in, and as the e-sport portion grows, a whole new group of younger gamers will join in, as they attempt to make a name in both virtual and real racing. 

Just like Grand Theft Auto, I expect Gran Turismo will return, and re-establish its dominance. Not only will it outsell all other sim racers, it will set a new high mark for the series. 

Most of your predictions and ideas in general are absolutely batshit, you know that? I like it.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

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Barkley on 07 October 2017

5-6m

It's basically a spinoff and if you're not into competitive online I don't think it's going to be great, but the name and the PS4 will carry it.



DonFerrari on 07 October 2017
Normchacho said:
KBG29 said:

People were actually saying the same thing about Grand Theft Auto 5. Call of Duty and Assasins Creed had grown so big after GTA4 some thought that GTA's long production cycle, and time out of the lime light would result in it lossing its sales power. I think the same thing will happen with GTS.

People are forgetting just how big of a deal GT is. I have a lot of PlayStation friends that have still not moved to PS4 because they are waiting for GTS. These are people that still play GT6 on the regular. 

I think GT6's pore performance is going to cause some low predictions here. The thing is, GT6 was released at a terrible time. I have owned every GT since the first, including Prologues, and I didn't even buy GT6. GTS is going to far exceed GT6, and that is a gaurantee.

My Prediction:

First Week - 3.2M

End Of 2017 - 7M

Total Lifetime - 18M

I see it selling well right out the gate, because people have been starved of GT for 4 years. The 5 Million that picked up GT6 against all odds, will jump into GTS very quickly. Then you will have a lot huge amount of people that skiped GT6 returning to the series. As the game grows, with new cars, tracks, challanges, and much more, old fans that are nervous about a new GT will finally jump in, and as the e-sport portion grows, a whole new group of younger gamers will join in, as they attempt to make a name in both virtual and real racing. 

Just like Grand Theft Auto, I expect Gran Turismo will return, and re-establish its dominance. Not only will it outsell all other sim racers, it will set a new high mark for the series. 

Most of your predictions and ideas in general are absolutely batshit, you know that? I like it.

We need someone to make crazy predictions, sometimes those are the ones that got then right.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

VAMatt on 07 October 2017

Gran Tourismo does not have nearly the same level of name recognition that it did a decade ago. For the first several years of its life, it was *the* console racing game. That position has been taken over by Forza. Of course, that leaves a huge vacuum for a PS racer to fill. So, I expect it will do well. But, 10mm? I can't imagine it even approaches that, unless it gets amazing reviews, GOTY nominations, and things like that to fuel the hype train, and keep it running longer than usual.

I'll say 7.5mm lifetime.



Normchacho on 07 October 2017
VAMatt said:
Gran Tourismo does not have nearly the same level of name recognition that it did a decade ago. For the first several years of its life, it was *the* console racing game. That position has been taken over by Forza. Of course, that leaves a huge vacuum for a PS racer to fill. So, I expect it will do well. But, 10mm? I can't imagine it even approaches that, unless it gets amazing reviews, GOTY nominations, and things like that to fuel the hype train, and keep it running longer than usual.

I'll say 7.5mm lifetime.

That is definitely not true. GT6 outsold Forza 5 and 6 combined launching on the PS3 after the PS4 came out. Forza gets talked about a lot because it's the name of two series of games and they release one every year, but GT is still easily the king of racing sims on console.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

DonFerrari on 07 October 2017
VAMatt said:
Gran Tourismo does not have nearly the same level of name recognition that it did a decade ago. For the first several years of its life, it was *the* console racing game. That position has been taken over by Forza. Of course, that leaves a huge vacuum for a PS racer to fill. So, I expect it will do well. But, 10mm? I can't imagine it even approaches that, unless it gets amazing reviews, GOTY nominations, and things like that to fuel the hype train, and keep it running longer than usual.

I'll say 7.5mm lifetime.

Yes, all those 2M sales of FM6 and perhaps FM7 will dethrone GTS from the top, may be the first time they accomplish that.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."