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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - 25th Sept. - 1st Oct 2017

fatslob-:O on 05 October 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Well too be fair, I never said Nintendo would do amazing. I'm just hoping so, as you said. 

By semi-big I meant Kirby, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem. I know that they might not be "big" games, but especially the former two I can see being great ways of convincing families to pick up a system(lol is that too stereotypical?)

I know you made the point about lifetime, I just think those games could essentially carry the system out through some dry months. The PS4's library wasn't nearly as good as the Switch's in it's first year ... of course that's disregarding the many, many reasons the PS4 kept selling. 

In order for Nintendo to keep up momentum in 2018 ... they're going to need at least Animal Crossing and .... something else... 

@Bold Well that depends if those games are going to feature local multiplayer ... (the game mode is popular among families) 

I'd argue the opposite regarding PS4's first year. You had rereleases like GTA V, TLOU, Minecraft, Diablo III and new IPs such as Destiny, Watch Dogs, Middle-Earth, Driveclub and returning IPs like the yearly sports releases (FIFA especially grew this generation), CoD, AC, Far Cry 4, Infamous along with Dragon Age: Inquisition but my list isn't even counting games that sold below 2M units on PS4 such as Little Big Planet 3, The Evil Within, The Crew, Wolfenstein, Rayman Legends or Alien: Isolation ... 

I guess it would be bad idea to compare Sony systems to Nintendo systems in terms of releases since customers expect lot's of big 3rd party games on playstation while customers are content with a moderate amount of core Nintendo games ... 

Agreed with the last line ... (I think we could have a 2D Mario on our hands for this one since it's relatively one of the easier titles to develop) 

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

See, this is why i'm a tad worried. I genuinely can't think of what that other game could be. Like we said, there's got to be at least two big hits per year. In my opinion, Nintendo's two biggest mistakes with the Switch thus far have been releasing Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and the new Kirby and Yoshi game. With Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Nintendo is going to have to push development of the new Mario Kart back. When in reality, it didn't make much sense to release it in April. Sure, the game held the drought for immediate purchasers but Zelda alone was enough to carry sales long into June or July. Honestly, I think that was a big mistake on their part. A brand new Mario Kart in 2018 would have sold much better. Of course, it's possible that they couldn't have it out by then(wasn't it rumored the MK8 team were doing Arms?) but they probably could have gotten another internal studio to handle development, or release it earlier then they could now at least.

Rereleasing MK8 is fine since it's just a port so not much resources was spent to get an immediate gain (although this could affect the boost with future entries since Nintendo is getting some Mario Kart customers to transition already)

What Nintendo needs IMO is a new big hit IP I think cause they really don't have that many options left ... (Once they've played, Zelda, Splatoon, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing and evntually in the future with Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario, maybe Donkey Kong and another Mario Kart they should be able to reach 50M units with the Switch but after that it gets noticeably harder to break past that wall) 

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

On Yoshi and Kirby, I think the problem is the lack of innovation. I feel Nintendo's design philosophy has been to chase after what made the N64 special. Games that aren't just innovative for their series, but also for their hardware. That works for Zelda and Mario, two games that innovative in both directions. Even for titles like Splatoon 2 and Xenoblade 2 ... iterative works ... those games are still pretty much a marvel for a handheld. A competitive tps and a huge RPG with PS3 graphics. 

But ... Kirby and Yoshi? Yeah, that's a problem. We've already seen how big franchises can be when they get refreshes, or at the very least suprises (DKCR) . These games will probably do the norm for Kirby and Yoshi, 2 - 2.5 mil and that's about it. 

The more I think about it, the more i'm thinking we might get a Pokemon Diamond and Pearl remake late next year .. but that just seems to early. I honestly don't know what they could possibly launch next year. I can only think of Animal Crossing as a big hit. Still, I'm hoping more than anything Retro releases their new ip.

I thought it would be Pokemon Platinum that would be remade since it's already the enhanced version for Diamon/Pearl but it seems a little too early for a remake right now since Game Freak is busy doing Pokemon Ultrasun/Ultramoon which are an alternate games of the original instead of a direct enhancement like the previous installments ... 

Would be interesting to see what Retro is doing, they could be producing another Donkey Kong game right now I imagine ... 



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 05 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:

@Bold Well that depends if those games are going to feature local multiplayer ... (the game mode is popular among families) 

I'd argue the opposite regarding PS4's first year. You had rereleases like GTA V, TLOU, Minecraft, Diablo III and new IPs such as Destiny, Watch Dogs, Middle-Earth, Driveclub and returning IPs like the yearly sports releases (FIFA especially grew this generation), CoD, AC, Far Cry 4, Infamous along with Dragon Age: Inquisition but my list isn't even counting games that sold below 2M units on PS4 such as Little Big Planet 3, The Evil Within, The Crew, Wolfenstein, Rayman Legends or Alien: Isolation ... 

I guess it would be bad idea to compare Sony systems to Nintendo systems in terms of releases since customers expect lot's of big 3rd party games on playstation while customers are content with a moderate amount of core Nintendo games ... 

Agreed with the last line ... (I think we could have a 2D Mario on our hands for this one since it's relatively one of the easier titles to develop) 

Rereleasing MK8 is fine since it's just a port so not much resources was spent to get an immediate gain (although this could affect the boost with future entries since Nintendo is getting some Mario Kart customers to transition already)

What Nintendo needs IMO is a new big hit IP I think cause they really don't have that many options left ... (Once they've played, Zelda, Splatoon, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing and evntually in the future with Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario, maybe Donkey Kong and another Mario Kart they should be able to reach 50M units with the Switch but after that it gets a noticeably harder to break past that wall) 

I thought it would be Pokemon Platinum that would be remade since it's already the enhanced version for Diamon/Pearl but it seems a little too early for a remake right now since Game Freak is busy doing Pokemon Ultrasun/Ultramoon which are an alternate games of the original instead of a direct enhancement like the previous installments ... 

Would be interesting to see what Retro is doing, they could be producing another Donkey Kong game right now I imagine ... 

Well both games have been advertised pretty heavily as co-op games, *especially* Kirby which is literally called Kirby Star Allies

Ehh...I'm speaking for my own personal tastes. I don't think any of those games were that appealing and I definitely regretted getting a PS4 for a long ass time. I pretty much haven't regretted my Switch at all so far. Infamous was really good though. Of course, the difference is that the PS4's library had way more variety. And that's why I said there's nuances. The PS4's library was simply so big in it's first year that it was super successful, whereas I think Nintendo is banking almost entirely on appealing hardware and a few high quality games. Simply put, the PS4 sold well because of quantity, even Sony admitted they were shocked it was as successful as it was.

The problem with MK8 isn't really the effort(there was probably very little). More so I think Nintendo will hold off on a sequel even longer due to the rerelease.

I agree with you, they need a big new IP. And it's kind of horrifying. Splatoon 2 is really only big enough in Japan and some of the U.S. to be a console seller. We already have Nintendo covering so many genres that them trying to do something totally unique while making it a system seller globally would be very difficult. We've heard some people on this forum speculate that Nintendo is putting resources on new IP all the time since Splatoon. Personally i'd like to see less of Arms and more of a mature grounded experience. Maybe even two mature IP to get more gamers in from other consoles. 

Yeah that's what I was thinking. Too soon, maybe. It would be cool if it was Platinum, but a lot of people wanted Emerald and Crystal to be the remade 3rd and 2nd gen games, and aside from some missions that never ended up being the case.



fatslob-:O on 05 October 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I agree with you, they need a big new IP. And it's kind of horrifying. Splatoon 2 is really only big enough in Japan and some of the U.S. to be a console seller. We already have Nintendo covering so many genres that them trying to do something totally unique while making it a system seller globally would be very difficult. We've heard some people on this forum speculate that Nintendo is putting resources on new IP all the time since Splatoon. Personally i'd like to see less of Arms and more of a mature grounded experience. Maybe even two mature IP to get more gamers in from other consoles. 

Nintendo doesn't need to explore new genres, they need good content and mechanics since that's what actually sells games ... 

COD, Uncharted, Star Wars Battlefront, Battlefield, Destiny, Tom Clancy's The Division, Far Cry, Overwatch and Doom are all shooters but they each have different appeal and concept so that's why the shooting genre isn't all that 'saturated' relatively speaking since they all have low overlap altogether ... 

The same goes for sports, role playing and action games which are all high frequency occurrences ... (one wouldn't associate RPGs from Square Enix so heavily with Bethesda RPGs) 



AngryLittleAlchemist on 05 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I agree with you, they need a big new IP. And it's kind of horrifying. Splatoon 2 is really only big enough in Japan and some of the U.S. to be a console seller. We already have Nintendo covering so many genres that them trying to do something totally unique while making it a system seller globally would be very difficult. We've heard some people on this forum speculate that Nintendo is putting resources on new IP all the time since Splatoon. Personally i'd like to see less of Arms and more of a mature grounded experience. Maybe even two mature IP to get more gamers in from other consoles. 

Nintendo doesn't need to explore new genres, they need good content and mechanics since that's what actually sells games ... 

COD, Uncharted, Star Wars Battlefront, Battlefield, Destiny, Tom Clancy's The Division, Far Cry, Overwatch and Doom are all shooters but they each have different appeal and concept so that's why the shooting genre isn't all that 'saturated' relatively speaking since they all have low overlap altogether ... 

The same goes for sports, role playing and action games which are all high frequency occurrences ... (one wouldn't associate RPGs from Square Enix so heavily with Bethesda RPGs) 

My comment wasn't meant to focus on genre to that extent ...  but looking back on it I guess I should have been more clear, you're right. They could make another IP in a genre they've already focused on. I wasn't trying to imply they couldn't, I guess my mind just jumped to something totally unique, not yet covered. I think the easiest would be RPGs, since they don't really have a Western RPG exclusive. They could also do an action game or a shooter. The question is how far Nintendo wants to go in making new ips.



Miyamotoo on 05 October 2017
jonathanalis said:
Poor ARMS. :(
I wished it had better legs

I think its still selling around 3k, but that currently is not enuf to enter top 20 best selling games.

 

 

Lawlight said:
So, does that mean that the stock issue is over worldwide?

What exactly tell you that stock issues are over in Japan alone!? :D

Lawlight said:
Jranation said:

Someone in Japan should confirm this. But I think its still selling every stock they have. Once the loterries dissappear  then it should be good. 

Are they still holding lotteries? It seems that Amazon JP has stock but I can't read Japanese so not sure.

Yes they are they still holding lotteries, and Switch still sold out evre week. We have constant updates evre week on Negaf from people from Japan that pay attention on those things. Deal with that, Switch is sold out evre week, even when Nintendo ship 70-100k units, and we are still far from meeting demand in Japan. That's very obvious from everyone except you, and just wait Mario Odyssey and Holiday Season where Nintendo is preparing bigger shipments to see whats real beasting. ;)

Lawlight said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

...Do you lack common sense? Have you seen the demand for Switch in Japan? 70k ain't going to solve that.

 

You're just waiting for the day when Switch's supply issues get in check so you can criticize its sales figures...lmao.

Common sense tells me that it is in stock everywhere but Japan so why is Nintendo not shipping enough to Japan then? Decreasing shipments to countries where it's not selling well and increasing shipments to Japan would be common sense.

And, don't worry - in a month's time we will be getting official shipment numbers so we'll see if all those Switch beasting articles and posts hold up.

You dont make any sense. You don't need official numbers to see that Switch is selling great, Switch is selling good on all markets, but its best selling console last two months on biggest gaming market (US, it sold better than PS4 that YoY), and in Japan (that's biggest gaming market after US and Europe) left in dust all other consoles.



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Miyamotoo on 05 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Oh don't get me wrong, of course we all want to know what the Switch's lifetime success will be after supply issues are figured out. But I can't stand it when people are waiting for something to happen, hopeful that it will have the outcome it wants them to have. It seems to me that Lawlight only wants to dismiss any supply constraints, or wants them to be over, just so he can critize sales. It's more like he's just waiting for confirmation bias rather than interesting data. 

I can definitely see and relate to the people's point around here about Lawlight's agressiveness in validating his confirmation bias ... (He's being fairly terse regarding Switch's supply issue but I guess he can go on celebrating how stock is resolved in Canada and soon to be for the US ?) 

I'm especially curious about what those 'semi-big' releases are. It'll be interesting to see if there are new IPs on the horizon from Nintendo next year and how AAA third party support will play out in 2018 ... (I expect another entry for Animal Crossing next year)

It seems that stock situation is improving in US, but again Mario Odyssey will be launched in around 3 weeks, and shortly after that we will have Black Friday and Holiday Season, so probably again there will be huge stock issues.

FE, Yoshi and Kirby are curently only Nintendo games confirmed for next year, other posible titles for next year are: Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Retros game, Next Level Games game, Pikmin 4, some new IP/s, more Wii/WiiU ports, some 3rd party exlusive/s...in other words I wouldnt wory about Switch 2018. linuep, and they will most likely keep releasing around one bigger/stronger game for almost every month like they doing this year.



killeryoshis on 05 October 2017

Pokemon and Animal Crossing are not coming in 2018. Pokemon is simply not ready. The Splatoon team and the Animal Crossing team are the same thing. Do not expect anything until 2019. Honestly Nintendo is just fine for the 1st half of the year. They have Fire Emblem, Yoshi and Kirby to do some sales. Whatever Nintendo has for the 2nd half will be saved for E3.

My money is that we will get Retro's game and 2D mario by the 2nd half of 2018. 2D mario alone will be boost Switch sales to unbelievable heights.



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 05 October 2017
killeryoshis said:
Pokemon and Animal Crossing are not coming in 2018. Pokemon is simply not ready. The Splatoon team and the Animal Crossing team are the same thing. Do not expect anything until 2019. Honestly Nintendo is just fine for the 1st half of the year. They have Fire Emblem, Yoshi and Kirby to do some sales. Whatever Nintendo has for the 2nd half will be saved for E3.

My money is that we will get Retro's game and 2D mario by the 2nd half of 2018. 2D mario alone will be boost Switch sales to unbelievable heights.

Not really. 2D Mario was a fad...

 

FE Switch will probably be mid or late 2018



Miyamotoo on 05 October 2017
killeryoshis said:
Pokemon and Animal Crossing are not coming in 2018. Pokemon is simply not ready. The Splatoon team and the Animal Crossing team are the same thing. Do not expect anything until 2019. Honestly Nintendo is just fine for the 1st half of the year. They have Fire Emblem, Yoshi and Kirby to do some sales. Whatever Nintendo has for the 2nd half will be saved for E3.

My money is that we will get Retro's game and 2D mario by the 2nd half of 2018. 2D mario alone will be boost Switch sales to unbelievable heights.

You dont know that. They said they aiming to release Pokemon next year. Last Animal Crossing game is released long time ago, there were definitely more than enuf time to prepare new Animal Crossing for 2018. year. I definitely expecting at least one of those two games to be released in 2018. and I think higher chances are for Animal Crossing.

I am not sure about 2D Mario beacuse we already have 2D games for next year, also I am definatly sure we will not get new NSMB game, maybe new kind of 2D Mario or Mario Maker DX/2.



Green098 on 05 October 2017
killeryoshis said:
Pokemon and Animal Crossing are not coming in 2018. Pokemon is simply not ready. The Splatoon team and the Animal Crossing team are the same thing. Do not expect anything until 2019. Honestly Nintendo is just fine for the 1st half of the year. They have Fire Emblem, Yoshi and Kirby to do some sales. Whatever Nintendo has for the 2nd half will be saved for E3.

My money is that we will get Retro's game and 2D mario by the 2nd half of 2018. 2D mario alone will be boost Switch sales to unbelievable heights.

I'd say no. Nintendo need at least one of their biggest IP's releasing in 2018 and that consists of Mario, Pokemon and Animal Crossing (their IP's that have been 10 million+ sellers before). 

Animal Crossing New Leaf came out in 2012, they've had plenty of time to be working on one even with Splatoon. By 2018 that will be six years since it finished development, and Splatoon games have a very quick development time like most shooters, compared to big games like Zelda. I'd say we are overdue for a new mainline Animal Crossing game especially since the Wii U didn't get one. Nintendo is a big company they can handle the output of these games especially with 3DS getting more and more out of the picture.

Pokemon we know already has a 2018/19 release date, so it is possible and is commonly a yearly release. I think it could either way, I don't know how you could say it is simply not ready, when we don't know how far in development it is.

Mario games come out every year, it's just whether they're more mainline or spin-off is the question. A big mainline 3D Mario game is coming out in 2017, so the other options would be a 2D Mario game or a higher tier spin-off like Mario Kart 9, but it may be too close to Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's release for that just yet.

There is also Super Smash Bros, but if it's a enhanced port which I think it will be it doesn't count just as much.

We have to be getting a brand new title of at least one of Nintendo's big flagship IP's in 2018, the 3DS and Wii U both managed to do this in there second year, there is no excuse for the Switch not to.