Pretty much this ^

I doubt it. It seems PS4 still hasn't peaked, and in fact this years seems to be its best so far, so killing it so soon after its peak seems too early. Obviously it's not going to die so immediately when the next PlayStation comes out, but I imagine Sony still wants to wait longer before eating away PS4's profits with a new console.

Also, Microsoft must be fully aware of the situation. Obviously they're not just going to release a new console without analyzing the competitors' launch possibilities as well. It kind of seems they're getting away from traditional generations and moving more towards a more continuous model. There might not even be a new generation of Xbox consoles. Instead, Xbox One X is the next step, then in a few years they'll release the next step, and so on. In such a release cycle, the importance of new consoles isn't as big as it is now, so a PS5 wouldn't be such a threat anyway. Of course this can be a risky strategy as it's largely untested, but Microsoft doesn't seem to be faring too well against Sony even when Sony screws up terribly (PS3), so Microsoft needs to come up with something new.

i think more for a release by end of the year 2019, if not 2020

remember, the xbox one x IS 500$, so the ps5 can't really be THAT much more powerful than it if it comes out next year at the sweet spot of 400$.

I agree that hardware is the main problem for an early 2019 launch, but in my oponion it's more because of the GPU part rather than the CPU.

Both Scorpio and PS4Pro feature a Polaris 10 (RX 480/580) part, with some Vega enhancements, and that's the best AMD has on offer right now in the mainstream segment, which is the one Sony would look for unless they want to launch a more expensive PS5. There are rumors that AMD may have Vega 11 to replace Polaris 10, but given how Vega 56 performs, the jump in performance from such part would be very small if at all.

Given that Vega 20 will only be a refresh on a smaller node, and will launch late next year, we'll have to wait for Navi to see real improvements and something worth a new gen of consoles.

I'm thinking more along the lines of 2021 but the earliest is 2020.

PS4 has so much steam going and hardly any serious competition so why bother.

The only thing that would push an earlier release is if MS releases a next gen console, but even still Sony can probably release a next gen console a year after MS like they did with XB360/PS3.

Definitely agree, not to mention that AMD must rely on third party foundries for production (and it had to fight with Intel in tribunals to be allowed to completely end internal production, become financially unsustainable, and start totally outsourcing, as Intel, through some one-sided parts of their cross-licensing deals, wanted to prevent the outsourcing of x86 CPUs production) while cryptocurrency mining is keeping GPU and memory prices high, so it's both more likely a delay than an acceleration in the CPU and APU roadmap and unlikely an early drop in GPU and memory prices. APUs like those used in base model consoles are maybe in a better situation, particularly if they are customised models made on console makers specifications, as their production and prices are established on deals between AMD and console makers and not directly subject to end-user market volatility, that anyway still indirectly influences them, particularly if and when, after the initial deals, the console maker needs a larger production increase than initially agreed. The later they start producing PS5, the more likely production will have caught up with miners demand, possibly with mining-taylored cards with their own market, ending the current GPU price turmoil.

A "PS4 premium" serves no purpose. No one is going to put a premium when a PS5 that blows it out of the water is no more than a year or two away. Just look at PS4 Pro sales. It's not exactly leading a boom in PS4 sales, at only 1 in 5 PS4s sold, is it? Face it. There just isn't a demand for these higher end game consoles that you like to pretend there is, and there's no reason to suspect that such a console would extend the shelf life of the PS4.

Releasing first doesn't garantee you will win.

The difficult part will be to convince people on why they need to upgrade. 4k TV's are still way too expensive. I'd get sold by the 60fps, but many don't. A noticeable technological leap is necessary.

yeah look what happened to the dreamcast.