I'd say actually it's quite possible even with more stock the 3DS outsells the Switch during its first holiday in Japan.

3DS has a better line up ... Mario 3D Land + Mario Kart 7 + Monster Hunter > Mario Odyessy + Xenoblade.

Nothing as far in the future as that should be considered a given, nor any console selling the over 20 million required to overtake the 3DS in Japan. We can't deduce Switch demand from its weekly sales while it's still supply constrained. For crying out loud it recently went from 90k sales one week down to 20k the next, back up to 70k after that. Shipments having stabilized around 45-50k doesn't tell us anything about demand. Also, the 3DS did not have a baseline of 60k at this time. It was still only a couple of weeks after its price drop, and sales continued to decline weekly until it too went below 50k.

That the 3DS had no major releases until its tenth month on the market while the Switch had multiple system sellers in its launch window is an obvious point in favor of the Switch, especially since Splatoon had no equivalent on 3DS and Switch gets a 3D Mario game at basically the same time the 3DS did anyway.

3DS had an outstanding Holiday 2011. That was literally its peak quarter in Japan for its entire lifetime. It should not be the standard for success for a system heading into its first Holiday. Having strong year 2 and 3 is more important than breaking their "First Holiday" record.

Again the PS2 is the only home console to sell over 20m in Japan. But that doesn't make it a threshold. The Wii ended at 12.5m and that was hardly seen as a failure. The PS3 ended with only 2m behind the Wii. And the PS4 will be at over 6m after 4 years (not 5m) and could end up with 10m if the PS5 doesn't come out too early. Yeah the console industry is in decline but it's hardly "shit". As long as software publishers find profitability (and they do) then home consoles will remain relevant in Japan.

Setting aside the fact that we have no way to verify this, since Switch will have a vastly lower amount of stock than 3DS and will undoubtedly sell less:

Why do you think that only games releasing during the holiday season contribute to holiday sales? Aren't you a Nintendo fan? You should know that Nintendo games continue to sell and hold up the hardware baseline long after release.

Switch has Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, and Breath of the Wild. That lineup absolutely crushes what 3DS had in its first year. Not only are its analogues far superior (MK8D > MK7, Odyssey > 3D Land, BotW > Ocarina 3D), but Switch has Splatoon, which is becoming the next phenomenon in Japan.

There's no question that Switch would sell more than 3DS over the holidays if it had enough stock.

Actually I have no problem saying the Wii was a relative dud in Japan. After a great start it really fizzled out there big time. 10 mill as the best case scenario is "shit" to me. That's a very low baseline. 

I don't neccessarily agree with that. 3DS is no push over in Japan, it may have underperformed in US/EU ... but don't get it twisted, 3DS ripped shit up in Japan, being the third best selling system there ever. It's not some magical given that the Switch will outperform it even with adequete stock. 

3DS has outsold every Nintendo home console and Sony system in Japan by a country mile. 

I'm not talking about lifetime sales, I'm just talking about this holiday. Not only has Switch been selling on pace with 3DS for the past 6 months, but it's been doing it while 5,000 yen and now 15,000 yen more expensive. On top of that, Switch is completely sold out and is regularly getting resold for 10,000 yen more than retail price, unlike 3DS, which was never sold out. But that's to be expected, since Switch's library is much better than 3DS's library in the first year.

Agree, Zelda BotW, MK8D and espacily Splatoon 2 will sell Switch even in next years, not to mention this holiday season.

I actually don't think for *sales* purposes Odyessy > 3D Land is necessarily a thing. I think Japan prefers the 3D Land style of more linear Mario than open-world Mario.

3D Land outsold Mario 64 and Mario Sunshine in Japan easily. MK8D > MK7 is misleading also, MK7 being a new MK will crush sales of MK8D in Japan.

The holiday lineup for Switch in Japan isn't *that* great. Odyessy is an open world Mario, but that isn't really mega popular in Japan, while Xenoblade is really a C-tier Nintendo IP. Fire Emblem Warriors is alright, but it's a Musuo game, not a real Fire Emblem so that limits it. 

Splatoon 2 is going to have to do a lot of the heavier lifting I think through the holiday. 

Actualy 3D Land sold just litle more than Mario 64 dispite fact that 3DS has much bigger instal base in Japan compared to N64, not to mantione Mario Sunshine and GC instal base in Japan compared to 23m 3DS owners. But we will see how 3D Land will perform against Mario Oddysey. Also I wouldnt be so sure that MK7 will crash MK8D sales in Japan, MK8D has great sales in Japan, it selling around 10k per week with huge Switch stock issues.

Holiday lineup doesnt need to be great beacuse Switch is far away from meating demand in Japan, Switch for holiday will have Zelda BotW, MK8D, ARMS, Splatoon2, Pokemon Tournament DX, Fire Emblem Wariors, Mario Odyessey and Xenoblade 2, thats killer linuep for evre new Switch owner.

Its funny how you sound like Switch meat demand in Japan and like is normally available, when fact is that Switch still completely sold out every week in Japan regardless numbers Nintendo can ship and offcourse that demand will much higher in holiday season and when Mario Oddysey arives, so there will not be any "hevi lifting" during holiday season, Nintendo will sell evrething they can ship for holiday seaason in any case.