Wait.....we're going so far in this Kerotan argument we're actually going to DENY that the Switch is a 3Ds replacement?

.....

.... lol

Come on. Let's use legitimate points. Can't be that hard to peg Kerotan.

Frogs are slippery

And i'm wet

... wait, that didn't come out right!

Switch success is uncomfortable for some.

Hold on. Now I agree Switch is meant to eventually succeed the 3DS, but not for these reasons. Nintendo’s primary developers left the 3DS years ago to work on Wii U projects. That didn’t mean the Wii U was replacing the 3DS then and it isn’t evidence that the Switch is replacing the 3DS now. Even their first-party projects for the past several years have mostly been developed by third-party partners overseen by Nintendo. TriForce Heroes by Grezzo, Federation Force by Next Level, etc. Only Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and Kirby games seem to have kept their core teams on 3DS. Note that Pokemon and Kirby still have upcoming 3DS releases. So Nintendo may not have their main teams on the system any more, but they are still supporting it as they have for several years.

Sony may have a history of continuing to support their consoles with first-party development past their expiration date, but for the most part Nintendo does not. As far as I’m aware the notable exceptions would be the NES and the GameBoy lines. The GameCube was fully retired by the time the Wii launched (sans Twilight Princess), the Wii for the Wii U, the DS for the 3DS (sans Pokemon) and so on. Also since it’s just too difficult to resist I have to point out Sony barely supported the PSP and Vita with their “primary developers” at all, never mind after being replaced.

It’s unusual for the 3DS to continue to be supported as much as it has been after the release of its successor. Doubly so Nintendo seems committed to following through on their promise to support it well into next year. I would guess they will allow the 3DS to persist as long as it is profitable, as Sony did the PSP.

I like to compromise since Switch is hybrid but isn't 2 consoles.

So 3DS+Wii U/2 = Switch

Ex for WW:  70m 3DS+ 12m Wii U/ 2= 41m

Should be easy for Switch, so we could raise the ratio in 3DS's favor since at least 45m+ 3DS owners don't own a Wii U.

Thats true. I thought it was just as simple as: 

- Comparing it as a console to other consoles

- Comparing it to its past products. 

Thats an interesting take. 

Which past system you should compare Switch sales to depends on what you hope to learn from the comparison. If you’re trying to discern the Switch’s sales potential it makes the most sense to compare it to the 3DS. They released roughly the same time of year and are following similar trajectories in Japan, while the Switch is kicking its ass in the West. This tells you that 15+ million in Japan and 40+ million in the US and Europe combined is a reasonable conservative prediction.

Most other comparisons such as against Wii U are not particularly insightful. If you’re invested in the console wars stuff I guess you can compare it to PS4 and XBO, the only other ‘living’ platforms.

Sorry guys but its weekly sales are less than half what the Wii U was doing this time last year. I know it still gets some games but I can’t find a pulse.

Anyway I do find PS4 & XBO comparisons interesting. Maybe we can get something from them. PS4 is of course killing the Switch in Europe. And I wonder what will happen when the One X launches, but for now I’m blown away by how the Switch is doing in the US especially compared to Xbox. They’re going to come in last place in their strongest market? Yikes.