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Which past system you should compare Switch sales to depends on what you hope to learn from the comparison. If you’re trying to discern the Switch’s sales potential it makes the most sense to compare it to the 3DS. They released roughly the same time of year and are following similar trajectories in Japan, while the Switch is kicking its ass in the West. This tells you that 15+ million in Japan and 40+ million in the US and Europe combined is a reasonable conservative prediction.

Most other comparisons such as against Wii U are not particularly insightful. If you’re invested in the console wars stuff I guess you can compare it to PS4 and XBO, the only other ‘living’ platforms.